Joe’s Average Takes is a weekly column where I will go through some of the opinions thrown out by the mainstream media or on Twitter. Are these takes enlightened or just average? I’ll go through that on each edition of Joe’s Average Takes. (Yes there is some irony with Joe’s average take calling out other average takes)
Dave Portnoy’s $67,000 Bet on the Bengals to Win the Super Bowl
Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports, has made headlines by saying he has bet $67,000 on the Cincinnati Bengals to win the Super Bowl this season. The bet has drawn some praise and some criticism on social media.
First, there has been some talk about the amount Portnoy is betting. That doesn’t concern me if he can afford to bet that much responsibly (it seems like he can) more power to him.
Now, it’s time to dig into betting on the Bengals. Is it a smart bet or not?
The Bengals had odds of 10/1 to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season. Currently, according to FanDuel, the Bengals are +1400 or 14/1 to win the Super Bowl. Those odds have changed due to the Bengals’ slow start to the season. That slow start happened last season and they still were able to get to the AFC Championship Game.
Why did the Bengals start slow? Joe Burrow entered the season with a calf injury. He suffered the injury early in camp. Burrow had plenty of time to rest before the season, as he sat out the whole preseason. In the first few games of the season, Burrow did not look like himself. Passes were inaccurate and he could not escape pressure. It was a combination of rust and injury holding him back.
The Bengals limped to a 1-3 record. His calf started showing signs of improvement and the Bengals were able to win their next two games to get to 3-3 before their bye week. Burrow was showing some improvement during those two games, both with his injury and with his play.
Since the bye week, the Bengals have won two games. Their first was against the 49ers, who had won 11 straight at home before Cincinnati broke that streak. In the second game, the Bengals defeated the Buffalo Bills, a team they defeated in the divisional round of the playoffs last season.
In the game against the 49ers, Burrow was 28/32 for 283 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He set his own personal best with 18 straight completions during the game. Burrow was healthy, as he had plenty of scrambles. Following that, he posted a stat line of 31/44 for 348 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills. He is the top-rated offensive player by PFF over the last two weeks.
Burrow being healthy has helped the entire team. They allow 20.3 points per game, which ranks 12th in the NFL. Over the last four games, they have conceded just 17 points per game. With the teams they played over that stretch (Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers and Bills) that is impressive.
With the 5-3 record, the Bengals are last in a tough AFC North. The Steelers and Browns also have 5-3 records, while the Ravens are 7-2. Still, there is optimism around the Bengals after how they have rebounded.
Now that Burrow looks healthy and the Bengals are hitting their stride, it is fair to think that they could win the Super Bowl. They have made the last two AFC Championships and made the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Joe Burrow has a 3-1 record against the Chiefs and a 2-0 record against the Bills, two of the other top contenders in the AFC. In the last two games, they have defeated two of the other preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl. It is natural to think that if Burrow is healthy, this team can win a Super Bowl.
Yes, the division is tough, but making the playoffs is all they need to do to go on another run and they have a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs now.
Although someone putting that much faith in the Bengals scares me (Cincinnati people can’t have nice things), Portnoy made a smart bet. Will the bet hit? Who knows. Futures bets are always risky. If fans/betters believed in the Bengals before the season at 10/1 odds, buying in now at 14/1 odds is even better.
Verdict: Smart Take
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- Source: https://thegamehaus.com/sports/joes-average-takes-dave-portnoys-bengals-bet/2023/11/08/
