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Important lessons retail traders can learn from Bitcoin whales

On the one hand, Bitcoin’s price breaking above $34,000 and $35,000 might have started an endless debate on whether there will be a spillover to other cryptocurrencies or not. On the other hand, ano

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On the one hand, Bitcoin’s price breaking above $34,000 and $35,000 might have started an endless debate on whether there will be a spillover to other cryptocurrencies or not. On the other hand, another critical debate relates to the whale movement associated with the market’s top cryptocurrencies.

This is a crucial debate, especially since the recent sell-off on spot exchanges was attributed to mid-level retail traders. Further, whales and Bitcoin wallets holding 1000+ Bitcoins have gone up considerably. The same is true for Ethereum as well, with the number of addresses HODLing 10000+ Ethereums increasing every day.

Now, this number is expected to continue rising in the future, based on data from Santiment. In the case of both top cryptocurrencies, $BTC and $ETH, mid-tier holders are taking major profits, but top-tier whales are not, which is why perhaps, one can call either market a whales’ playground. Any upcoming correction in Bitcoin’s price may pave the way for further price discovery beyond its latest ATH, based on data from CoinMarketCap.

Source: Coinstats

The current market activity indicates that more and more institutional investors are entering the market and generating consistent demand that is driving the price higher. Retail traders may be selling for profits, but whales have not yet started booking their profits.

Bitcoin may have breached the $35,000-mark at the time of writing, but it is important to note that when BTC did correct itself a few days ago, the same didn’t affect its trade volume on spot exchanges. 24-hour volume on exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and BitFinex highlighted the positive sentiment, and while there is selling, demand is being sustained based on exchange order books.

Though retail traders may be betting on the outcome they wish to see, institutional traders are buying systematically with the long-run perspective in their minds. 

Looking at Bitcoin’s price chart right now, MicroStrategy’s average price of $19,400 per Bitcoin doesn’t seem as bad as it did back when the price was below $19,000. What retail traders could do at this point to differentiate is run with these institutions. The buying has persisted and the price may rally and fuel further price discovery if demand is being generated.

The rise in wallet addresses and the surge in trade volume indicate further price discovery and retail traders can support the narrative by watching the movement of whales. It may seem like a contrarian view by looking at Bitcoin’s price chart, however, the last 2 weeks of 2020 were about contrarians and this may carry forward into the first few weeks of 2021.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/important-lessons-retail-traders-can-learn-from-bitcoin-whales

Blockchain

65% Say They Would Consider Selling Bitcoin If The Price Reaches $100,000

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The cryptocurrency market has enjoyed the past several months with impressive gains, including all-time highs for bitcoin and several more tokens.

As such, a couple of crypto analysts initiated Twitter polls to ask the community when they plan to sell their positions and realize profits.

How Much Would You Sell At The Next BTC Top

The primary cryptocurrency has led the 2020/2021 bull run. Bitcoin had quadrupled its value since early October when it dabbled with the $10,000 mark to an all-time high of $42,000 charted earlier this year.

Despite retracing with a few thousand dollars, BTC is still about 10% up in 2021 alone. This has raised discussions within the community if or when most plan to dispose of some of their holdings.

Crypto analyst Josh Rager took it to Twitter to ask: “how much Bitcoin from your holdings do you plan to sell at the next peak high?”

Interestingly, the answer that received the most votes (34.4%) suggests that investors plan to dump most, if not all, BTC holdings in case of another price peak.

However, it’s also worth noting that a very close percentage (31.6%) said that they would sell less than 25% of the BTC positions.

While some comments indicated that many investors plan to hold their coins even beyond the next peak, others noted that each cycle has its top and subsequent retracement. Consequently, they advised even the most die-hard HODLers to consider profit taking at some point.

At What Price Would You Sell?

Another poll initiated by the popular analyst Filb Filb shed some light on the price targets that BTC investors are looking for to sell.

The majority of the participants noted that they would start to “think hard about selling some bitcoins” once the asset price goes into a six-digit territory. Over 40% would do that at prices ranging from $100,000 to $300,000, while 26.3% would wait to see BTC beyond $300,000.

However, Nugget News’ Alex Saunders opposed the idea of expecting a fiat price to sell the BTC holdings, especially during these times of economic uncertainty:

“Those who fully understand Bitcoin know there is no fiat price you should sell for if they are increasing M1 & M2 by 30% unless you absolutely must purchase something tangible that is of great value to you personally.”

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/65-say-they-would-consider-selling-bitcoin-if-the-price-reaches-100000/

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Why Bitcoin denominated payments won’t be mainstream anytime soon

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The support of top payment giants like PayPal is promising for building the case of mainstream Bitcoin payments. However, Bitcoin’s rapidly increasing price in the USD poses a tough challenge for the adoption of Bitcoin denominated payment systems. A number of altcoins are rallying alongside Bitcoin, and making payments in cryptocurrencies may not be the preferred choice for many. Just as Nic Carter, Partner at Castle Island Ventures puts it in his talk with Frances Coppola, renowned economist, and author, “I always regret it when I buy stuff with Bitcoin”. With returns of nearly 27.6% YTD, Bitcoin payments may not pick up anytime soon. Denominating Bitcoin in the USD makes it a lucrative investment opportunity and limits its adoption to traders and investors looking at it as a wealth-generating high-risk, high-ROI asset. This limitation is sure to hinder the adoption of Bitcoin denominated payments. 

The volatility and network momentum that is critical to Bitcoin’s adoption is a double-edged sword. The same volatility that is increasing the price, is making it less lucrative for traders and individuals to part with their Bitcoin. Through active involvement and buying from institutions, the bull run may receive boosts from time to time, however, the impact may end there. With regard to Bitcoin’s growth, this may not be the ‘Eureka’ moment that maximalists and proponents have waited for. It is more likely that the current price rally is an incentive to trade and adopt, however, adoption may be the game-changer. 

Currently, the number of transactions has exceeded the monthly volume since January 2017 based on data from Statista. 

Why Bitcoin denominated payments won't be mainstream anytime soon

Number of Bitcoin Transactions/ Monthly transaction volume || Source: Statista

The chart shows that the number of transactions in January 2021 has exceeded that of the past 3 years since January 2017. However, even the current transaction volume is nowhere close to the expected transaction volume. When mainstream adoption kicks in, transaction volume and price may no longer be significant metrics, as more critical metrics like transaction processing time, settlement time on exchanges, deposit and withdrawal time to and from wallets would be of greater significance. Until then, Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption may be a pipe dream. 

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/why-bitcoin-denominated-payments-wont-be-mainstream-anytime-soon

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Cardano, Cosmos, BAT Price Analysis: 17 January

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Cardano flipped the $0.32 to support and showed that it was on the verge of breaking past $0.385 resistance as it neared its 2-year highs. Cosmos posted rapid gains over the past few days and was retracing some of those gains. Basic Attention Token was rejected once more at a level of resistance that has been steadfast since late November.

Cardano [ADA]

Cardano, Cosmos, BAT Price Analysis: 17 January

Source: ADA/USDT on TradingView

The price of ADA has grown enormously over the past month as it nears highs last seen in May 2018. The $0.385 level can be expected to offer resistance.

A double-top formed in the region of $0.32 saw ADA initially rejected a week ago, but since, the level has been flipped to support. The Directional Movement Index showed that a strong uptrend was on the verge of being established, as the ADX crept up toward the 20 value.

In other news, Charles Hoskinson commented on Jack Dorsey’s Twitter post about a decentralized standard for social media and expressed that the crypto sphere could contribute value.

Cosmos [ATOM]

Cardano, Cosmos, BAT Price Analysis: 17 January

Source: ATOM/USD on TradingView

ATOM formed a rising wedge, and closed beneath it to test support at the $5.2-$5 region, and saw a strong surge thereafter. It reached a local high of $9.6 rapidly but might be forced to retrace some of those gains.

The Fibonacci retracement tool showed that the 38.2% level at $7.48 is in close proximity to the $7.5 region that has previously acted as a pocket of liquidity. There is also the $7.8 level of support immediately above to halt selling pressure.

The MACD, which had been strongly bullish over the past week, might soon see a bearish crossover form to indicate short-term bearishness.

The $7.8-$7.5 region is of vital importance. Defense of this region will pave the way for a move to the upside while losing this region will see a further retracement to the $6.9 level.

Basic Attention Token [BAT]

Cardano, Cosmos, BAT Price Analysis: 17 January

Source: BAT/USD on TradingView

The $0.27 has been a level BAT has failed to flip to support since late November, despite testing it several times. The range formed (cyan) grows in importance the longer BAT trades within it.

The past few trading sessions saw a strong surge just past $0.27, but subsequent selling pressure forced the price back beneath and indicated yet another rejection. This development points at a move back toward the mid-point at $0.232 for BAT.

The Stochastic RSI and the RSI were dropping lower at the time of writing.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/cardano-cosmos-bat-price-analysis-17-january

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