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Why the Asian session holds the key to Bitcoin’s price drop

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Bitcoin’s price seemed to have recuperated as it bounced off the yearly open at $28,956. However, on-chain indicators are suggesting that this expansion was a fluke. In fact, buyers with no real volume or momentum are trying to push the price higher on the charts.

The first sign of resistance weakened these buyers’ already weak momentum, with the same contributing to a continuation of the downtrend. More of these sell-offs might be on their way due to two reasons,

  1. On-chain indicators
  2. The start of the Asian session

Bitcoin’s On-chain indicators

As mentioned in yesterday’s article, Bitcoin was due for a correction and retest of the yearly open. Now, on-chain indicators, more specifically, CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium indicator, is pointing to more drops for the market’s pioneer cryptocurrency.

“Coinbase premium” is an on-chain metric that is the ratio of Coinbase’s BTC/USD price and Binance’s BTC/USDT price. This ratio helps determine if BTC is trading at a premium or not.

Source: CryptoQuant

A high premium highlights high spot inflows and suggests that investors want to buy, thus, it is a bullish sign. At press time, despite bouncing off the yearly low, this premium hadn’t increased and was still in the negative, hinting that the sellers were still in control of the market and that the drop wasn’t done yet.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju commented on this premium too, stating,

“Was always above +$50 when BTC was about to break 20k, 30k, and 40k, meaning there were huge spot inflows from high net-worth individuals and institutional investors in Coinbase.”

Bitcoin: Technical point of view

Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

As mentioned above, the first sight of resistance was the middle-line of the parallel channel. A rejection here sets up the price for another tap of the yearly open at $28,956. This further supported the on-chain metric’s bearish view.

A bearish case will be the breach of the immediate support at $28,956, which would open up the price to drops to $20,000 in an extremely bearish scenario.

Other supports that can prevent the price from dropping to $20,000 include the liquidity pocket ranging from $29,800 to $27,600. Following this range is the 50% Fibonacci level at $25,850, a level that seems to be the major area of support and the next destination for Bitcoin’s drop.

The Asian session

Asian sessions ranging from 23:00 GMT to 8:00 GMT is when traders in the east start trading. Hence, high volatility is usually experienced during this time. Moreover, the Asian session is known for being extremely bearish and most drops occur during this session.

In light of the fact that yesterday’s drop came accompanied the U.S session, Bitcoin can be expected to drop more as the Asian session is in full swing, further supporting the bearish outlook on the charts.

Source: https://ambcrypto.com/why-the-asian-session-holds-the-key-to-bitcoins-price-drop

Blockchain

Coinbase Decentralization Claim Draws Fury From its Customers

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In a blog post on Feb. 25 titled “Coinbase is a decentralized company, with no headquarters”, CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the firm has moved to a ‘remote first environment’.

No HQ = Decentralized?

He added that 52% of their employees have joined the company in a ‘post-office world’ and 95% of them have the option to work from home. Originally based in San Francisco, many company employees have dispersed across the globe since the beginning of 2020.

“It has helped us attract top talent. One of the best parts about being a decentralized company is that we can hire more of the best people.”

This does not make the company decentralized in crypto terms, as the respondents to the tweet pointed out.

Despite being one of the largest fiat to crypto onramps in the world, Coinbase has garnered a reputation for terrible customer service, higher than industry average fees, and questionable reliability when markets are volatile.

Coinbase Customers Lash Out

The barrage of comments came thick and fast and took aim at everything from customer support to the now predictable service outages during large crypto asset price movements.

“Also you have zero customer support (automated copy paste emails do not count), I guess you can call that decentralised too.”

Another Coinbase customer claimed that he had lost almost a thousand dollars in trading fees with just an $8,000 investment.

Someone else questioned the suspension of XRP stating that the company is still very centralized in the United States. Another disgruntled user stated;

“Coinbase [has come] a long way since 2011 in [the] crypto world. Unfortunately, [its] reputation [has become] tarnished due to unacceptable level of customer service and ignoring your most valuable asset – [the] customer.”

The majority of the complaints were regarding unanswered email and customer support inquiries though there were plenty of mentions of the frequent service outages;

“No headquarters. No customer service. No service at all when the market moves… Good for you coinbase.”

One respondent pointed out it was just a ploy to use a popular word at the moment just like the last bull run when companies added blockchain to their names.

At the time of writing, around 12 hours after the blog post was published, there were too many replies to read, and the vast majority of them were negative. It appears that Coinbase, which still has a number of whale investors, has also decentralized itself from its customers.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/coinbase-decentralization-claim-draws-fury-from-its-customers/

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What Bitcoin price levels will invalidate the short-term bearish scenario?

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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to range between $48,000 and $51,000, unable to break out of the $51,600 resistance level.

If Bitcoin struggles to surpass the $51,600 resistance area in the near term, technical analysts say the probability of a correction rises.

BTC/USDT 4-hour price chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

$51,600 is the key level to watch

According to Josh Olszewicz, a cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst, the $51,600 level is currently acting as a strong resistance level.

For Bitcoin to retest the all-time high at $58,000 and initiate a potential rally towards $62,000, it needs to cleanly move past $51,600, he explained. 

Hence, a rally beyond $51,600 is the clear invalidation point for any short-term bearish scenario for Bitcoin.

The failure to break out in the near term could result in a bearish test of lower support areas, found at around $42,000. He said:

“If 4h breaks down, be prepared for some uber bearish calls to start popping at 36.7k meanwhile, I’ll be bidding the daily Kijun at 42k. Alternatively, if $BTC breaks above 4h Cloud at 51.6k, I like ATH retest at 58k, R3 yearly pivot test at 62k, macro PF diag test at 70k, R4 yearly pivot test at 80K. Seasonality suggests we go neutral/sideways through March and then reach for those higher targets in Q2.”

The $42,000 support area is a key level because it marks the top of the previous rally. On Jan. 8, the price of Bitcoin peaked at $42,085 on Binance, seeing a steep correction afterwards.

Bitcoin dropping to $42,000 to retest the previous top as a support area would not be necessarily bearish beyond the short term, however. 

Whale clusters show similar levels of support

Moreover, analysts at Whalemap noted large inflows to whale wallets at $48,500 and $46,500, which they say should provide BTC with some support. 

“The current situation looks similar to the one we had at 29K,” they explained. What’s more, the $46,532 level may now be “the new $29,000,” which held as support during the previous correction in January before the rally continued. They added: 

The $55,400 is an important level to keep an eye on as well. Getting back above it will be a good sign

Whale cluster levels. Source: Twitter/@whale_map

The most compelling argument for a short-term Bitcoin drop

Bitcoin tends to seek liquidity after a prolonged consolidation, which means it can drop down to fill buy orders at lower support areas that can ultimately fuel a new rally.

A pseudonymous trader known as “Salsa Tekila” echoed this sentiment. He said that there is a big support area at $41,000, followed by resistance at $54,000. He wrote:

“My current take on $BTC mid term: 1) Support around $41K. 2) Resistance around $54K. Depending on context, I might trigger swings around those two vicinities. Likely just scalp until then, unless major events come to fruition.”

Bitcoin tested the $44,800 support level in the past 72 hours, but it was not enough to propel BTC above $51,600.

This trend could cause the price of Bitcoin to drop back to the $44,800 level or to a lower support level, at $42,000.

The ideal scenario would be for Bitcoin to hold onto the $44,800 support area if it drops again, stabilize it as a macro support level, and move back up.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-bitcoin-price-levels-will-invalidate-the-short-term-bear-scenario

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Nvidia supply shortage won’t stop $50M Q1 crypto miner sales, says CFO

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Nvidia’s ongoing supply problems won’t stop the company from selling $50 million worth of its new CMP chip range in the first quarter of 2021, the company’s chief financial officer Colette Kress forecasted on Feb. 24.

Nvidia failed to meet demand from its core gaming customer base in 2020, and the trend looks set to continue into 2021. Added demand from a horde of cryptocurrency enthusiasts keen to direct Nvidia’s new RTX 30 series GPU to Ether (ETH) mining initially appeared to pile pressure on the company.

But the firm’s CFO expects the recently announced Cryptocurrency Mining Processor product line to hit $50 million in sales in the first quarter of the year. The CMP range is designed specifically for Ether mining, and its introduction was part of an attempt to allocate more units of its RTX 30 range to gamers.

Despite supply problems, Nvidia hit record revenues of $5 billion in the last quarter of 2020, while its stock price soared to all-time highs. This is a near-exact repeat of the market conditions present in 2018, when increased demand amid supply shortages pushed the stock price to the highest level in its history up to that time.

On Wednesday, United States President Joe Biden signed an executive order to address the shortage of semiconductors and microchips. A critical review will investigate the country’s failing supply lines, which have been shown to rely too much on Chinese manufacturing, highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The chip shortage boosted the value of the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which tracks the value of chip-related stocks, with the index gaining 70% in the past 12 months.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur expects the pump to continue, even though the supply shortage won’t be corrected for some time. 

Sur recently told MarketWatch, “We believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.” 

Sur said the previous quarter was the first in which every chip maker JPMorgan tracked actually exceeded forecasted earnings.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/nvidia-supply-shortage-won-t-stop-50m-q1-crypto-miner-sales-says-cfo

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