The advantage of using crypto is that traders are free to bet on controversial questions without interference from some centralized entity. InTrade, a popular U.S. prediction market in the early 2000s, was forced to shut down by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) more than a decade ago, underscoring the risk of centralized operators.
I take back what I said above. Here’s one traditional analysts’ prediction for 2024.
“More than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets, which will emerge as a new ‘killer app’ for crypto,” write the team at Bitwise Asset Management in their annual forecast.
“Crypto takes prediction markets to the next level by making them borderless and permissionless, and by automating functions like determining winners and losers and making payouts,” the Bitwise researchers go on. These markets will become “a primary venue for both event-based and more traditional sports-related wagering.”
Even if that’s overly optimistic, it’s worth taking a look at what prediction markets are saying about what else might happen in crypto next year.
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Polymarket bills itself as the largest prediction market platform of any kind, and it’s by far the largest crypto-based one. To make bets there, you need to deposit either USDC, a stablecoin or digital currency that usually trades at par with the U.S. dollar, or ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap and the native token of Ethereum, the leading smart contract blockchain. (ETH deposits are automatically converted to USDC.)
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- Source: https://www.fintechnews.org/what-prediction-markets-are-forecasting-for-crypto-in-2024/