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What is the bottom for Bitcoin’s crash? When should you buy BTC now?

Bitcoin has crashed from $12,000 to below $10,000 all in under a week. Six months after suffering a brutal crash, bitcoin is crashing yet again and unlike the last time, the reason is slightly differe

The post What is the bottom for Bitcoin’s crash? When should you buy BTC now? appeared first on AMBCrypto.

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Bitcoin has crashed from $12,000 to below $10,000 all in under a week. Six months after suffering a brutal crash, bitcoin is crashing yet again and unlike the last time, the reason is slightly different. The blame is in part on miners who seem to be selling off their holdings rapidly.

How do miners fit here?

While miners are an absolute necessity to the ecosystem they have and will always be a constant source of selling pressure. Miners mine bitcoin and this operation of theirs is expensive. To support the operation, miners sell their mined bitcoin to a widely adopted currency, which could be USDT or USD.

Source: Bytetree

As of 1 September and 3, there have been huge outflows from miner wallets. About $5.3 million and $4.8 million worth of bitcoins have moved from miners and to exchanges. The effect of this can be seen on the price of bitcoin, which has dropped from $11,500 to under $10,000.

There are, however, macroeconomic problems that are also responsible for this crash. One of which is that the world’s reserve currency has seen drastic changes in the last six months. The Fed has printed trillions and basically shooed away the recession but this rampant printing and rate cuts will cause inflation and ripples of this will be felt by many markets.

How much will bitcoin drop?

Now that the “why” of the bitcoin crash is explained, the next topic is about bitcoin’s price and the extent of this crash. Here are some common questions that need to be looked into”

  1. Where is the bottom of this bitcoin crash?
  2. If and when one should buy bitcoin during this crash?

As explained a month ago, there is a CME Gap that ranges from $9,645 to $9,925. Disregarding the reason as to why the gaps are closed it looks like this gap will also be closed soon.

Hence, the obvious answer to the first question is that bitcoin’s bottom will be at $9,645.

But, are there chances that the price will dip even lower? Yes, considering how important the $10,000 level is, if the price closes below it, this will cause a FOMO and hence a sell-off to $9,000 – even stronger support.

On-chain analyst, Cole Garner’s tweet showed that whales are bidding at $8,800 level, which is reasonable and hence wicks down to $8,800 levels can be expected. Hence, an approximate bottom of bitcoin can be at $8,800.

This would mean a 25% drop from $11,200, however, just to be on the safer side, a 30% drop would mean that bitcoin has bottomed; hence, the absolute bottom of bitcoin could be at $8,300. It can be assumed that any dips beyond the $8,000 level will be bought out quickly.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/at-what-price-can-bitcoin-bounce-from-the-crash

Blockchain

Kraken Daily Market Report for April 12 2021

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Overview


  • Total spot trading volume at $1.74 billion, up from the 30-day average of $1.34 billion.
  • Total futures notional at $555.7 million.
  • The top five traded coins were, respectively, Bitcoin, Tether, Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano.
  • Strong returns from Uniswap (+25%) and Flow (+11%).

April 12, 2021 
 $1.74B traded across all markets today
 Crypto, EUR, USD, JPY, CAD, GBP, CHF, AUD 
XBT 
$59918. 
↓0.3% 
$641.7M
USDT 
$0.9994 
↑0.03% 
$317.0M
ETH 
$2135.2 
↓0.9% 
$216.1M
XRP 
$1.3753 
↑1.9% 
$126.6M
ADA 
$1.2994 
↑2.6% 
$84.1M
USDC 
$0.9999 
↑0.0% 
$46.7M
DOT 
$40.310 
↓2.6% 
$39.1M
LTC 
$245.33 
↓2.9% 
$34.7M
TRX 
$0.1331 
↑8.9% 
$33.3M
FLOW 
$37.468 
↑11% 
$30.6M
UNI 
$37.402 
↑25% 
$23.6M
FIL 
$166.62 
↓7.0% 
$18.9M
XLM 
$0.5751 
↓1.0% 
$18.6M
XDG 
$0.0712 
↓3.4% 
$17.9M
XMR 
$321.10 
↓2.8% 
$17.9M
LINK 
$32.707 
↓3.9% 
$12.3M
MANA 
$1.0822 
↑1.0% 
$11.5M
BCH 
$669.88 
↓3.0% 
$11.0M
SC 
$0.0266 
↓3.5% 
$9.87M
ALGO 
$1.4637 
↓4.1% 
$9.85M
GRT 
$2.0962 
↑9.6% 
$9.61M
AAVE 
$403.67 
↑8.4% 
$9.51M
ATOM 
$22.173 
↓5.6% 
$9.42M
KSM 
$428.66 
↓2.4% 
$9.33M
EOS 
$6.4521 
↓4.5% 
$7.34M
XTZ 
$6.2194 
↓3.5% 
$6.97M
ZEC 
$218.94 
↓1.5% 
$5.36M
DASH 
$277.71 
↓3.4% 
$4.59M
STORJ 
$2.4142 
↓0.7% 
$4.51M
DAI 
$0.9994 
↓0.03% 
$4.08M
COMP 
$446.04 
↓3.0% 
$3.75M
SNX 
$19.596 
↑3.0% 
$3.13M
ICX 
$2.6855 
↑4.2% 
$3.06M
OMG 
$9.6585 
↑0.3% 
$2.8M
BAT 
$1.4119 
↓2.1% 
$2.57M
KAVA 
$6.5938 
↓5.9% 
$2.53M
OCEAN 
$1.6560 
↓3.6% 
$2.42M
QTUM 
$14.663 
↓1.9% 
$2.27M
CRV 
$3.0164 
↓3.2% 
$2.18M
ANT 
$10.697 
↓4.6% 
$1.93M
NANO 
$5.6921 
↑1.4% 
$1.91M
KNC 
$3.5034 
↓4.6% 
$1.86M
YFI 
$42840. 
↓5.2% 
$1.68M
ETC 
$19.193 
↓5.8% 
$1.44M
OXT 
$0.7723 
↓3.9% 
$1.43M
WAVES 
$15.288 
↓2.2% 
$1.35M
REP 
$47.281 
↓4.1% 
$1.27M
LSK 
$6.4095 
↓6.1% 
$1.09M
KEEP 
$0.7189 
↓4.0% 
$1.07M
EWT 
$16.354 
↓4.3% 
$768K
MLN 
$85.518 
↓4.3% 
$674K
PAXG 
$1741.0 
↓1.0% 
$663K
BAL 
$51.182 
↓1.2% 
$600K
REPV2 
$46.957 
↓4.2% 
$367K
GNO 
$172.93 
↓0.03% 
$292K
TBTC 
$60697. 
↓0.8% 
$50.2K



#####################. Trading Volume by Asset. ##########################################

Trading Volume by Asset


The figures below break down the trading volume of the largest, mid-size, and smallest assets. Cryptos are in purple, fiats are in blue. For each asset, the chart contains the daily trading volume in USD, and the percentage of the total trading volume. The percentages for fiats and cryptos are treated separately, so that they both add up to 100%.

Figure 1: Largest trading assets: trading volume (measured in USD) and its percentage of the total trading volume (April 12 2021)



Figure 2: Mid-size trading assets: (measured in USD) (April 12 2021)



Figure 3: Smallest trading assets: (measured in USD) (April 12 2021)



#####################. Spread %. ##########################################

Spread %


Spread percentage is the width of the bid/ask spread divided by the bid/ask midpoint. The values are generated by taking the median spread percentage over each minute, then the average of the medians over the day.

Figure 4: Average spread % by pair (April 12 2021)



.


#########. Returns and Volume ############################################

Returns and Volume


Figure 5: Returns of the four highest volume pairs (April 12 2021)


Figure 6: Volume of the major currencies and an average line that fits the data to a sinusoidal curve to show the daily volume highs and lows (April 12 2021)



###########. Daily Returns. #################################################

Daily Returns %


Figure 7: Returns over USD and XBT. Relative volume and return size is indicated by the size of the font. (April 12 2021)



###########. Disclaimer #################################################

The values generated in this report are from public market data distributed from Kraken WebSockets api. The total volumes and returns are calculated over the reporting day using UTC time.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://blog.kraken.com/post/8612/kraken-daily-market-report-for-april-12-2021/

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Blockchain

Bitcoin Prepares For its Next Move: Where is the 100 SMA, the Key BTC Level?

Republished by Plato

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Bitcoin price is consolidating above the $59,500 support zone against the US Dollar. BTC is now showing a few positive signs, but it must clear $61,200 for a fresh rally in the near term.

  • Bitcoin is holding gains above the $60,000 and $59,500 support levels.
  • The price is now trading well above the $59,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $59,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is likely to start a sharp upward move once it clears the $60,800 and $61,200 levels.

Bitcoin Price is Showing Positive Signs

Bitcoin remained in a range above the $59,000 level and it is showing a few positive signs. Recently, BTC made another attempt to clear the $61,200 resistance, but it failed.

It corrected lower and retested the $59,500 support level. A low is formed near $59,432 and the price is now moving higher. It is also trading well above the $59,500 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $61,212 high to $59,432 low. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $59,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin is now trading above $60,400, but it is facing resistance near $60,800. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $61,212 high to $59,432 low.

A successful break above the $60,800 level could open the doors for a move above $61,200. If the bulls succeed in clearing $61,200, the price could rally in the coming sessions.

Dips Limited in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to climb above $60,800 and $61,200, there could be a short-term downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $60,000 level.

The main support is now forming near the trend line, $59,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the bulls fail to protect the 100 hourly SMA, there could be a major decline. In this case, the price might decline towards the $58,000 level.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $59,500, followed by $59,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $60,800, $61,200 and $62,000.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-prepares-for-next-move-61k/

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Blockchain

USDT, USDC, and BUSD represent 93% of stablecoin market cap

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Research from on-chain analytics provider Glassnode has revealed that the top three stablecoins represent more than 90% of the sector’s entire market cap.

Glassnode’s April 13 “Week On-chain” report found that the top three stablecoins — Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and Binance USD (BUSD) — have seen significant growth over the past six months to represent a combined capitalization of more than $60 billion, equal to 92.75% of the stablecoin market.

By contrast, six months ago the combined stablecoin capitalization for those three was less than one-third of its current levels at $19.2 billion. This time last year, stablecoins were worth just $7 billion combined.

The analysis compared the growth of stablecoins with Bitcoin’s market cap, identifying a clear correlation between the two. The report also found that USDT’s supply has continued to increase during recent weeks despite BTC trending sideways, whereas growth for USDC and BUSD has slowed.

BTC market cap vs stablecoin supply: Glassnode

The report notes historic lows for its Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) metric, which measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the total stablecoin supply to estimate the global “buying power” of the stablecoin sector.

When BTC prices are low, the supply of stablecoins can buy a larger portion of it to push prices up. Conversely, as prices increase the available stablecoins can purchase less which reduces the influence on prices. Glassnode concluded:

“The growth of stablecoin supplies throughout 2020-21 has held the SSR metric near historical lows suggesting a relatively high buying power of digitally native dollars. The demand for digital dollars appears to be keeping pace with demand for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole.”

Tether’s market cap has over doubled since the beginning of 2021 to currently sit at a record $45.6 billion, according to the Tether transparency report. Circle’s website reported an all-time high of $11.5 billion USDC on April 9, while Goingecko estimated BUSD’s supply to be $5.1 billion on April 13.

On April 7, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire predicted its USDC stablecoin could soon surpass PayPal by settlement value.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/usdt-usdc-and-busd-represent-93-of-stablecoin-market-cap

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