Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, rose 9.87% from April 7 to April 14 to trade at US$30,688 at 9:15 p.m. on Friday in Hong Kong. Ether rose 13.16% in the same period to US$2,100. rose 6.48% in the same period to US$1,996.

It’s been an eventful week for crypto and the global economy. Bitcoin broke US$30,000 for the first time since June 2022, days after the blockchain surpassed 1 million Ordinals inscriptions, generating over US$4.8 million in fees for the network. Ordinals are likened to non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on Bitcoin and allow users to mint images, videos, text and even video games.

Investor sentiment ticked up after Ethereum completed the Shanghai upgrade on Wednesday, enabling staking withdrawals for the first time. Ether broke through the US$2,000 ceiling for the first time since August last year, snuffing out initial concerns that Ether withdrawals would add selling pressure on the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

Even if Ether were unstaked, it does not necessarily mean that people are going to sell them, because they could also use it for other DeFi investments, Chen Zhuling, co-founder and CEO of crypto staking platform RockX, said in an interview on Thursday.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) released on Wednesday showed cooler-than-expected numbers, as inflation rose 5% on the year in March but declined from 6% in February, representing the smallest increase since May 2021.

U.S. equities rallied overnight on softer readings in the U.S. producer price index and jobless claims, adding to optimism the Federal Reserve could soon end its year-long cycle of raising interest rates to curb inflation.

The slowdown of inflation could push more investors and hedge funds to buy Bitcoin, said Marat Minkin, co-founder of decentralized finance payment app TONBanking.

“Lower inflation reduces investors’ risk and they can consider more aggressive assets. Some hedge funds will allocate funds to risky assets like Bitcoin. But given that Bitcoin has already almost reached double [price since] its lows, we are likely to see sideways movement before moving on,” wrote Minkin. 

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting also raised market concerns about a “mild recession.” While several Fed officials considered keeping interest rates unchanged, they ultimately raised it by 25 basis points due to “elevated inflation.”

John Isige, a senior crypto market analyst at crypto trading platform Vauld, said that Bitcoin’s sustained uptrend is proof that it is a mature asset class and that it is able to hedge against economic risks.

“Bitcoin is definitely at the start of a bull run. Volumes are still low but holding US$30,000 could keep small retail traders streaming into the market and that’s what BTC needs to continue with the bullish lock-step action. The latest CPI data shows inflation is easing in the U.S. and is by far an indication this uptrend is not about to slow down,” wrote Isige in a LinkedIn response to Forkast.

“Interest rate increases are expected to bring down consumer prices. Bitcoin and other global markets are bound to react positively and with Bitcoin above US$30,000, investors could be looking at US$38,000 next,” he added.

Interest rate increases are expected to bring down consumer prices. Bitcoin and other global markets are bound to react positively.

John Isige, Vauld

Brian Santos, COO of private jet company Fly Air and the founder of the non-profit Bitcoin Business Alliance, said that Bitcoin remains in bearish territory and that he expects a price correction if Bitcoin does not rise above US$30,000. 

“To establish a bull flag, Bitcoin must move above US$30,000 and remain there for a prolonged amount of time. Dating back to early 2021, Bitcoin still shows an overall downward trend. A break above US$30,000 could represent a so-called pierce — a two-day candlestick signaling a short-term reversal from a downward to an upward trend. Algorithms could theoretically be using this current price action to lure in more longs ahead of another pullback,” wrote Santos to Forkast.

Kadan Stadelmann, chief technical officer of blockchain infrastructure development firm Komodo, agreed that Bitcoin could still be in a bear market due to thin volume.

“Recent Bitcoin trading has been based on thin volume, suggesting big money is not buying. The U.S. dollar has been weak in recent trading sessions, and yet Bitcoin has not broken out to the upside. As soon as Bitcoin broke through US$30,000, many positions were liquidated and it seems traders began shorting again. Despite this, retail remains very bullish. As long as Bitcoin doesn’t hold above US$30,000 for a sustained period, it could still decline to US$9,000-13,000,” wrote Stadelmann to Forkast.

The global crypto market capitalization stood at US$1.28 trillion on Friday at 9:15 p.m. in Hong Kong, up from US$1.18 trillion a week ago, according to CoinMarketCap data. Bitcoin’s US$594 billion market cap accounted for 46.4% of the market, while Ether’s US$252 billion accounted for 19.7%.

See related article: Crypto firms hardpressed to find U.S. bank partners as industry blames ‘Operation Choke Point 2.0’

Biggest gainers: RNDR and WOO

The Render Network’s token (RNDR) was this week’s biggest gainer among the top 100 coins by market capitalization listed on CoinMarketCap, rallying 24.83% to US$1.61. The token started gaining momentum on April 9, three days after the network announced the community approval of its migration to Solana.

The Render Network allows idle GPUs (graphics processing units) to be used for the digital rendering needed in fields like 3D modeling, gaming imagery, and virtual reality.

The WOO coin, the utility token of crypto trading platform Woo Network, was this week’s second biggest gainer with a rise of 23.14% to trade at US$0.25. The token started its rally on April 10, days after crypto exchange Kraken announced the launch of WOO perpetual contracts.

Next week: Market eyes US$32,000 Bitcoin

“US$28,000 is still a crucial level investors should watch going into the weekend. If Bitcoin lets go of US$30,000, US$28,000 will come in handy. All eyes are on US$32,000, a resistance that may determine the beginning of a bull run. A break above this level brings US$38,000 within a reachable scope,” wrote Isige.

But Ikrom Ergashev, co-founder of blockchain investment analytics firm Neironix, expects a crab walk for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin will have a hard time moving further in the coming week. The best option would be sideways movement for long-term growth

Ikrom Ergashev, Neironix

“Bitcoin will have a hard time moving further in the coming week, as it is now in the viscous zone where it was last year, and the best option would be sideways movement for long-term growth. That leaves a corridor of movement between US$29,000-32,000,” wrote Ergashev to Forkast.

Santos of Fly Air expects Bitcoin to “remain rangebound below US$30,000,” and a temporary Ether rally to US$2,000.

“Ethereum has steadily increased in price year-to-date, and is currently attempting a break out of an ascending channel. While US$2,000 is within reach, Ethereum faces a lot of selling pressure at US$2,000… Ethereum looks weaker here than Bitcoin. Ethereum could enjoy a temporary spike in light of a successful Shapella upgrade, but the chart suggests it would be short-lived,” wrote Santos. 

Stadelmann noted that the Bitcoin chart has yet to print a bull flag, “suggesting the price will likely pull back to its previous range of approximately US$26,500 – US$28,500.”

See related article: Ethereum stands firm as Shapella upgrade rolls out

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