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Uncertain times

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Equity markets are back in the green on Friday after a choppy week in which the recovery rally has stalled.

Efforts by Fed policymakers to manage market expectations have cooled the sense of immense relief that has delivered a strong rebound over the last month. The S&P was up more than 15% at one point while the Dow jumped more than 18%. Not bad on the back of what was ultimately one good inflation month.

James Bullard unleashed a flurry of hawkish views on Thursday which didn’t get a warm reception in the markets initially. But then they did rebound and are higher again today so it seems investors are still taking them with a pinch of salt. The Fed is clearly concerned that “dovish pivot” speculation could be undermining its tightening efforts which could explain why it’s being so steadfast in its hawkish message.

There will also be a concern that the labour market and household spending are showing little sign of weakening despite interest rates rising at an extraordinary rate over the past year. I don’t think that will stop the central bank from slowing the pace next month, especially if we see another drop in inflation just before, but it could cause the Fed to persevere for longer which is a concern for investors.

UK retail sales blip no reflection of what lies ahead

No one in the UK will be fooled by the latest retail sales report into thinking all is not as bad as it seems, not after yesterday’s Autumn Statement. The OBR expects living standards to decline by 7.1% over the next two years, the sharpest drop in six decades, as the country battles a cost-of-living crisis, severe fiscal consolidation, higher interest rates, and a recession. Against that backdrop, it’s hard to get remotely excited by an expectation-beating 0.6% jump in sales in October. Needless to say, it is not the start of a promising trend.

BoJ still unlikely to change course

Japanese inflation data may on the face of it give the impression that the Bank of Japan has achieved its inflation goals and can afford to soften its grip on the bond market but the reality is quite different. What is believed to be unsustainable factors like a weak yen, and high imported energy and food prices, are behind the increases, which the BoJ has been very willing to look through and will likely continue to do so. Especially with the pressure of yen devaluation far less intense after the US dollar’s correction over the last month.

Crypto volatility subsides for now

Bitcoin volatility is subsiding which will no doubt come as a relief to the crypto industry as the fallout from the FTX collapse continues. We’re continuing to learn who exactly is exposed to the collapse, to what extent, and what the ripple effects will be. One obvious impact is that of confidence in the space which could take time to repair in already challenging markets. I’m not sure anyone can be confident that the worst of the rout is behind us which means bitcoin is vulnerable to another plunge, with $15,500 being the first test of support and then potentially $14,000 below that.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

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