Bitcoin (BTC) price has yet to recapture the $40,000 level and traders who were expecting a quick resumption of the uptrend may have been caught off guard by the recent pullback. This could have led to the liquidation of about $500 million worth of cryptocurrency futures positions in the past 24 hours.
Over leveraged positions provide the necessary ammunition during the uptrend, but they become a liability when the trend reaches an inflection point.
When the markets turn down, leveraged long positions quickly turn into a loss, resulting in margin calls from brokers. When the margin requirements are not met, the brokers dump the positions at market price, leading to a sharp plunge.
Therefore, data indicating a reduction in leveraged Bitcoin positions in the past few days is a positive sign as it decreases the risk of cascading liquidati.
While a sharp fall is usually avoided when the markets are not overleveraged, sustained buying is needed to maintain the higher levels. If that does not happen, the price continues to correct gradually.
Grayscale Investments has been one of the major buyers in the past few months but they now have a new competitor, Osprey Funds, which began quoting in the over-the-counter market on Jan. 15 under the ticker symbol OBTC. The firm is offering a competitive management fee structure compared to Grayscale.
This is a positive sign for crypto markets because if both these firms attract institutional investors, the buying may resume and Bitcoin can reverse course to pursue new highs.
While Bitcoin remains stuck in a range, select altcoins are running hard. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may be favored by the bulls in the next few days.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating in an uptrend. The price action of the past few days has formed a symmetrical triangle, which generally acts as a continuation pattern. The long tail on today’s candlestick shows the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day exponential moving average ($34,241).
The upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory suggest that bulls are in control. If the buyers can push the price above the triangle, the next leg of the uptrend could begin.
The first stop could be the current all-time high at $41,959.63, but if the bulls can propel the price above it, the BTC/USD pair may rally towards the pattern target at $50,000.
Contrary to this assumption, if the rebound fails to find buyers at higher levels, the bears may try to sink the price below the triangle. If they succeed, the pair may drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $29,688.10.
This level may attract buyers but if the bulls fail to push the price above the 20-day EMA, then the correction could deepen to the 50-day simple moving average ($26,581).
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have purchased the drop to the support line of the symmetrical triangle but they may face resistance at the moving averages that are sloping down.
If the price turns down from the moving averages, the bears will try to sink the price below the triangle. If they succeed, a deeper correction is likely.
On the contrary, if the bulls can push the price above the moving averages, the pair may rise to the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. A breakout of this resistance may start the uptrend.
However, if the price turns down from the resistance line of the triangle, the pair may trade inside the triangle for a few more days.
Chainlink (LINK) broke above the $20.1111 resistance on Jan. 15 and followed it up with another up-move on Jan. 16, hitting a new all-time high at $22.96. But the long wick on the Jan. 16 candlestick suggests profit-booking at higher levels.
The price rebounded off the $20.1111 breakout level today, suggesting that the bulls have flipped this level to support. If the bulls can now push the price above $23, the LINK/USD pair could rally to $27 and then to $30.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($16.25) and the RSI near the overbought zone suggest bulls are in control.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below $20.1111, the next stop is likely to be $17.7777. This is an important support because a break below it will indicate a possible change in trend.
The 4-hour chart shows the breakout above $20.1111 had pushed the RSI deep into the overbought territory, which may have attracted profit-booking from short-term traders.
However, the positive sign is that the bulls aggressively purchased the dip to the 20-EMA. If the bulls can sustain the price above $21.5709, the pair may retest $22.96. A break above this resistance may resume the uptrend. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest bulls have the upper hand.
This bullish view will invalidate if the bears sink and sustain the price below the 20-EMA. Such a move could pull the price down to $17.7777, indicating the momentum has weakened.
Uniswap (UNI) is currently in an uptrend but is facing selling above the $9 mark as seen from the long wick on Jan. 16 and today’s candlestick. If the bulls do not give up much ground, it will suggest traders are not rushing to the exit after the recent rally and are buying on dips.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($6.15) and the RSI in the overbought territory suggest bulls have the upper hand. If the UNI/USD pair stays above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $7.4725, the bulls will try to resume the uptrend.
If they can push the price above $9.3776, the rally could extend to $12.4597 and then to $15.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bears sink the price below $7.4725, the pair may drop to the 20-day EMA. Usually, a deep correction suggests that the momentum has weakened and that may result in a few days of range-bound action.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair is currently consolidating after the recent sharp up-move. The bulls are buying the dip to the $8 support and the bears are selling above $9.
If the bulls can push the price above the $9 to $9.3776 overhead resistance, the uptrend could resume.
On the other hand, if the bears sink the price below the 20-EMA, the decline could extend to the 50-SMA. Such a move could keep the pair range-bound for a few days.
Tezos (XTZ) had been stuck inside the $2.85 to $1.85 range for the past few weeks. The bulls are currently attempting to push the price above the range and start a new uptrend.
However, the long wick on the Jan. 16 candlestick shows that the bulls are finding it difficult to sustain the price above the range. Today, the long wick and the tail on the candlestick indicates indecision among the bulls and the bears.
If the bulls can sustain the price above $2.85, the possibility of the start of a new uptrend increase. The upsloping 20-day EMA ($2.48) and the RSI above 66, suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside.
The first target objective on the upside is $3.90 and then $4.4936. This bullish view will negate if the XTZ/USD pair drops and breaks below the 20-day EMA.
The 4-hour chart shows the bulls had pushed the price above $2.85 but they could not build upon the strength, which led to a correction. However, the bulls aggressively purchased the dip to the 20-EMA and are now trying to drive the price above $3.1838. If they succeed, the uptrend could resume.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and drops below the 20-EMA, it could correct to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could signal that the recent breakout above $2.85 was a bull trap.
Cosmos (ATOM) rose above the stiff resistance at $8.877 on Jan. 16 and made a new all-time high at $9.60. Whenever the price hits a new all-time high, it is a sign that bulls are in command.
However, the bears have not given up yet as they have pulled the price back below $8.877 and are attempting to trap the aggressive bulls. The bullish momentum could weaken if the bears sink the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $7.093.
Conversely, if the bulls can defend the zone between the 38.2% retracement at $8.05 and the 50% retracement at $7.572, it will suggest strong demand at lower levels.
If the price turns up from this support zone, the bulls will try to resume the uptrend. A break above $9.60 could push the ATOM/USD pair to $12.10 and then to $13.974.
Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that bulls have the advantage. The pair has bounced off the 20-EMA and the bulls will now try to push the price above the $8.877 overhead resistance.
If they succeed, the pair could rise to $9.60 and a break above it will signal resumption of the uptrend. Conversely, if the bears sink the price below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the momentum has weakened and a drop to $7.50 and then to the 50-SMA is possible.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Coinbase Targets Direct Nasdaq Listing of its Class A Common Stock
After the confidential submission of a draft registration statement to become a publicly-traded company announced last year, Coinbase has taken a major step to be listed on the giant US stock exchange – Nasdaq.
- CryptoPotato reported earlier that Coinbase had submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to go public via a direct listing instead of an IPO. Initial estimations suggested that the potential valuation was at about $28 billion.
- Earlier today, the company announced that it had filed a registration statement on Form S-1 with the Commission “relating to a proposed public direct listing of its Class A common stock.”
- This signifies a vital step towards becoming a publicly-traded company. Coinbase plans to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol “COIN.”
- It’s worth noting, though, that while the registration statement has been filed, it has yet to become effective. As the company explained it:
“These securities may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective.”
- Furthermore, Coinbase asserted that its filing doesn’t “constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.”
- The company reported that its net revenue results for 2020 were substantially larger than the 2019 numbers – $1.1 billion against $483 million. The expenses had also increased from $580 million in 2019 to nearly $870 million last year.
Polkadot, Ethereum Classic, IOST Price Analysis: 25 February
Polkadot saw a bounce to $36 after touching $28 over the past few days, but it has once again sunk beneath the $34 mark. Ethereum Classic also found some resistance at the $12 mark, and IOST showed rising bearish pressure.
The Supertrend indicator showed a sell signal for DOT after it slipped beneath the descending channel (cyan) and plunged to $28. However, since then it has made a recovery toward $34-but whether this is more of a bounce rather than a recovery is a pertinent question.
At the time of writing, trading volume did not really back the recent price rise, indicating that it was indeed a bounce. The Awesome Oscillator showed bearish momentum, but no real strength over the past few hours.
Key levels to watch out for are $34.5 and $36 above it. A rejection would indicate bearish strength, while a flip to support can be used to enter a long position on a retest.
Ethereum Classic [ETC]
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool for ETC’s drop from $18 to $9, some levels of importance are highlighted. The RSI showed bears were in control of the market over the past couple of days, as the RSI stayed beneath the neutral 50 value.
The Parabolic SAR climbed into overbought territory even as the price slipped beneath the 38.2% retracement level- which was not an encouraging sign for the bulls.
It is likely that ETC would continue to move lower, toward the $10.75 mark once more.
IOST was in a steady short-term decline. It attempted a recovery, on strong trading volume, to $0.059 from the depths of $0.039. However, bears were able to force the price lower once more.
An interesting aspect is a lack of buying strength when IOST began to slip after a rejection at $0.059. This showed that bears were in control. The levels that bulls would try to defend are the $0.044 and $0.039 levels.
A defense of either of these levels over the next couple of days would point toward weakening bearish pressure in the short-term, and another possible recovery back toward $0.059.
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Inside the blockchain developer’s mind: Koinos approaches testnet
Cointelegraph is following the development of an entirely new blockchain from inception to mainnet and beyond through its series, Inside the Blockchain Developer’s Mind. In Part Four, Andrew Levine of Koinos Group discusses some of the challenges the team has faced since identifying the key issues they intend to solve.
In this post I will summarize the solutions we’ve developed to these problems, which we will be showcasing in the upcoming Koinos testnet planned for the second quarter of 2021.
Since that series Koinos Group has successfully launched a token, KOIN, as a proof of work mineable token on Ethereum. By using proof of work to distribute the initial token supply we were able make the token accessible to early adopters and forgo an ICO.
Assessing the ICO model
ICOs and similar token sale tools, while not without their use cases, have created their own crisis within the space by misaligning incentives before development even begins. The issue is not with the ICO as a tool, but what happens when a team is financially rewarded before they have even shipped a product.
While so many projects have followed in the footsteps of Bitcoin, it’s surprising how few have replicated arguably the most successful aspect of its launch; a token distribution exclusively through proof of work.
The benefit of this approach is that it ensures with algorithmic certainty that the people behind the blockchain have no advantage in acquiring the token. In short, everyone, no matter who they are, has to make a financial sacrifice in order to acquire that token and the scale of that sacrifice is determined by some neutral third party. In the case of proof of work, that neutral third party is the manufacturer of hardware.
For Koinos Group, that means we had to spend money to acquire our token just like everyone else. In fact, because we have to spend most of our time developing the product, we are even at a disadvantage relative to professional miners. So we have to keep working to add value to the protocol if we’d like to get a return on our investment.
Proof of work algorithms are not without their problems, but we mitigated those in a few ways.
- First, the mainnet will be governed by a totally different consensus algorithm that won’t be proof of work or proof of stake, so any attempt to develop an ASIC would be a waste of resources.
- Second, we made the algorithm GPU resistant.
- Third, we released this token long before releasing our mainnet. In fact, we released the token long before we had even completed development of our framework. Without a functional product, this token becomes a way for people who believe in our team and who share our vision for a fee-less smart contract platform to acquire the token at a reasonable cost.
Rapid rate of improvement
Part of what makes this launch strategy work is the innovative property set of Koinos. We built Koinos totally from scratch, not around any single feature like transactions per second or sharding, but with the goal of creating a blockchain that would improve at a much more rapid rate than any other blockchain out there.
In our experience developing the Steem blockchain, the need to execute hard forks was the single biggest factor holding back progress. If we wanted to eliminate that bottleneck, we reasoned, moving as much of the system code as possible into smart contracts that could be upgraded in-band would do the trick.
That’s why the Koinos blockchain framework contains only the most basic blockchain features (called “thunks”) like contract input/input, getting parameters, and writing to the database. All of the more complex features that people are more familiar with (consensus algorithm, accounts, resource management, governance, etc.) have been moved into modular WASM smart contracts running in the virtual machine that can be upgraded without a hard fork.
Because all behaviors are now coded in distinct “modules” that can be individually “upgraded” we call this feature modular upgradeability.
As a result of modular upgradeability, any behavior can be added to the blockchain without a hard fork because individual upgrades can be distributed in blocks and transactions that are pushed to the network much like an operating system patch, but with the added benefit of an on-chain record of the entire upgrade path.
By moving nearly all of the system code of the blockchain to smart contract modules that can be upgraded without a hard fork we have made Koinos into a blockchain that derives its strength not from the features it is born with, but based on its ability to rapidly acquire new and better features faster than anything else out there.
This is why we call Koinos the first blockchain capable of evolution.
Modular upgradeability was just the first major technical innovation that we developed to make Koinos less monolithic and an order of magnitude more upgradeable. Just like there is code that does not need to be implemented natively (in the blockchain itself) but that can be implemented as smart contracts (most of it in fact), there is plenty of code that does not need to be implemented either natively or as smart contracts and can instead be implemented as microservices.
Microservice architectures have many benefits which is why this has become the industry standard for modern software development, but one major benefit is scalability because individual services can be scaled up without having to scale up the entire system. This can dramatically reduce the cost of running a network while improving both the speed and quality of improvements to that network. As a result of historical accidents, blockchain stacks appear to be the last to adopt this new standard as Koinos will be the first blockchain built on a microservice architecture.
This creates amazing new opportunities for developers who will be able to build application specific microservices for Koinos that will help them run their nodes, and their applications, more efficiently; and as a consequence deliver better user experiences. Best of all, this will make Koinos node operation more accessible, thereby improving decentralization, and enabling the network as a whole to run more efficiently so that developers and their end-users can get more out of their decentralized applications.
Another benefit of a microservice architecture is that individual microservices (basically small programs) can be written in the best (fastest, most secure, best libraries, etc.) programming language for the job, a capability we also wanted to offer for smart contract developers. But in order to take advantage of this trait we needed to develop a way for these small programs written in different languages to “talk” to one another in a way that conformed to the unique needs of a decentralized network. To solve this problem we created a cross-language serialization framework named Koinos Types.
Koinos Types is like the Rosetta Stone for blockchain data structures. It allows programs written in different languages to talk to one another in a simple and unified way by giving them access to the same objects (the “building blocks” of modern programming languages). Koinos Types allows for the interpretation of Koinos (i.e. blockchain) data structures in practically any programming language which will be extremely useful for the development of blockchain-related microservices, clients, and smart contracts.
Koinos Types solves a number of problems. It helps us add multi-language support to Koinos more generally (including for smart contracts), it enables microservices to communicate with one another, and it makes it far easier to develop and update client-libraries. While modular upgradeability and the microservices architecture alone make Koinos far more upgradeable than any other blockchain, Koinos Types takes that upgradeability to another level. That’s why we were so excited to make Koinos Types the first piece of Koinos that we open sourced.
As you can see, ensuring that Koinos can improve at a more rapid rate than any other blockchain isn’t about any one feature.
- It’s about getting the incentives right from the beginning.
- It’s about ensuring that the blockchain has modular upgradeability.
- It’s about modularizing the very architecture itself as microservices.
- And it’s about making sure that developers operating at every level of the stack (not just smart contracts) are able to use the programming languages they already know and love.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Andrew Levine is the CEO of Koinos Group, where he and the former development team behind the Steem blockchain build blockchain-based solutions that empower people to take ownership and control over their digital selves. Their foundational product is Koinos, a high-performance blockchain built on an entirely new framework architected to give developers the features they need in order to deliver the user experiences necessary to spread blockchain adoption to the masses.
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