I was in a Clubhouse room yapping about bitcoin yesterday, and as usual, the first question was my price target for bitcoin. I quickly walked through my 10 year $1M price target, as I had done on CNBC earlier in the day. But that was an unsatisfying answer to some, as 10 years is a long time to wait.
So they asked me where I thought Bitcoin would be at year end. I answered as I had when I wrote “The Two Reasons Why The Forecasts For Bitcoin YE 2018 Were So Horribly Wrong”, in late 2018, no one, not even the “experts”, has any idea where the price of bitcoin is going to be at the end of the year. Look at the price predictions made in early 2018, about year end 2018 prices when bitcoin closed at:
How off were the predictions made by experts? Well, the closest expert in the 2018 price prediction challenge, was Pantera Capital, and they were 5.3X to high. Pomp was 13.3X to high:
Based on the current price of $41,000 for bitcoin, the five year price predictions made by Tim Draper and Brian Kelly are currently 6.1X too high.
Obviously, my 10 year price target may be off that much as well. My price target is more to give context to where bitcoin can go, if it wins the store of value battle with gold. My $1 million price target is also meant to help people get the perspective that there’s, potentially, a long way to go, IF we’re right about bitcoins place in the global financial ecosystem.
Because the BIGGEST mistake EVERYONE since Satoshi has made, is believing that they were too late to the bitcoin party. That the big gains had already been made. In this epic 2011 tweet, Greg Schoen thought the party was over, and so he sold, when bitcoin hit $0.30:
It’s still early.
It’s still very early.
Read my last post “The “Crypto Crash” Isn’t A Crash, It’s A …….”
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Source: https://medium.com/quantum-economics/the-one-thing-every-bitcoin-newbie-should-know-daa5973a3df9?source=rss——-8—————–cryptocurrency
