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The global situation is further intensified, what kind of test will crypto assets face?

Date:

“Our aim is to help market participants with professional skill and greater focus to better understand the market and make wiser decisions.”

Recap of this week

本周从2月21号到2月27号,冰糖橙最高40200附近,最低接近34350,震荡幅度达到15.34%左右。

l 观察近期筹码分布图,在38400有附近有密集的筹码成交,将有一定的支撑或压力。

l 同样在41800–43900附近有密集的筹码成交,该点位有可能成为市场上行压力。

This week from February 21 to February 27, the highest sugar orange near 40200, the lowest close to 34350, concussion range reached about 15.34%.

l According to the recent chip distribution map, there is a certain amount of support or pressure in the vicinity of 38400 when there are dense chip transactions.

l At the same time, there is a heavy transaction of chips around 41800–43900, which can act as upward pressure on the market.

本周要闻及外盘分析

Weekly Important News and Over the Counter Analysis

本周俄乌冲突对全球资产价格带来的影响

The impact on global asset prices of this week’s conflict between Russia and Ukraine

美股要闻:

本周,道指下跌0.1%,标普500指数上涨0.8%,纳指上涨1.1%。衡量华尔街恐惧程度的VIX市场波动率指数收跌0.58%,收于27.59,仍处于极度恐慌范围。

美股本周走出深V行情,前三日因俄乌冲突大跌,周四、周五连续两日大幅上涨。

纳指周四、周五累计上涨4.98%,标普指数累计上涨3.74%,道琼斯指数累计上涨2.79%;

同时本周美国股市道琼斯工业指数周五创下了自2020年11月以来的最大单日百分比涨幅。

US Stock Market Highlights:

For the week, the Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The VIX market volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed down 0.58% at 27.59, still in extreme fear territory.

U.S. stocks pulled out of deep V’s this week after three days of steep losses amid the russia-Ukraine conflict and two days of sharp gains on Thursday and Friday.

The Nasdaq rose 4.98% on Thursday and Friday, while the S&P gained 3.74% and the Dow 2.79%.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest one-day percentage gain since November 2020 on Friday.

l 美股分析

我们认为这种单日波动很大的行情,说明市场认为短期内的不确定性较大,属于熊市反弹行情而非反转。

回顾历史地缘冲突期间美股的走势:

l US Stock Market Analysis:

We see this kind of large one-day volatility as a sign that the market sees more uncertainty in the short term and a bear market rally rather than a reversal.

A look at the U.S. stock market during historical geopolitical conflicts:

历史数据显示,地缘冲突爆发日起,美股短期普遍下跌,影响区间在10–30天,之后都快速发生修复。

当前俄乌冲突已经爆发一周左右,参照以往的规律,在未来三周内,冲突或还将对美股造成一定影响。

Historical data show that since the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, the U.S. stock market generally fell in the short term, with an impact range of 10–30 days, and then quickly repaired.

The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been breaking out for about a week, and if past patterns are any guide, the conflict is likely to have a certain impact on THE U.S. stock market in the next three weeks.

黄金要闻:

COMEX 4月黄金期货收跌2.0%,报1887.60美元/盎司,本周累跌约0.6%,而周四曾触及1976.50美元的1.5年高点。

Gold Highlights:

COMEX gold futures for April delivery ended down 2.0 percent at $1,877.60 an ounce, down about 0.6 percent for the week after hitting a 1.5-year high of $1,976.50 on Thursday.

l 黄金分析:

近两天金价回落的原因可能是因为美国已经对俄罗斯发出较重制裁,市场或预测事件将在短期内结束。

l Gold analysis:

The pullback in gold prices over the past two days may be due to the fact that the U.S. has already imposed heavier sanctions on Russia, and the market may predict that the event will end in the short term.

BTC要闻:

本周乌克兰当地加密货币交易所交易量翻倍;去年土耳其动乱时,该国市民也曾大量购买BTC;

BTC Highlights:

Local cryptocurrency exchanges in Ukraine doubled in volume this week; Turkish citizens also bought in bulk during last year’s unrest.

l BTC分析:

当前,国家发生危机时,当事地区的人有将BTC当作替代本国货币的避险资产的倾向。

然而对于整个金融市场来说,BTC目前仍不被认为是避险资产。

2月22日,BTC相对于黄金的价格已跌至2021年年中以来的最低水平,后随有所反弹,但与黄金相比仍处于价值低位。

l BTC analysis:

Currently, people in the region concerned tend to use the BTC as a safe haven asset in the event of a national crisis.

However, BTC is still not considered a safe haven asset for the financial market as a whole.

On Feb. 22, BTC fell to its lowest level relative to gold since mid-2021 before rebounding somewhat, but remains cheap compared to gold.

本次危机发生后BTC与美股同一天迎来深V,同时发生反弹。

目前看来, BTC与美股联动趋势仍很高。

我们认为 BTC作为金融资产最大的升值逻辑仍是全球货币超发,以及货币超发带来的资产贬值,所以对其价格影响最大的金融方面因素仍是美联储收水。

After the crisis, BTC and THE US stock market hit a deep V on the same day and rebounded at the same time.

At present, BTC and the US stock market linkage is still very high.

We believe that the biggest appreciation logic of BTC as a financial asset is still the overissuance of global currency and the depreciation of assets brought by the overissuance of currency. Therefore, the most influential financial factor on its price is still the withdrawal of water by the Federal Reserve.

能源要闻:

能源方面,4月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格24日盘中突破每桶100美元,一度升至102美元上方,为2014年9月以来首次破百;

欧洲天然气期货价格跃升至每千立方米1400美元,而冲突前的价格约为1000美元。

Energy Highlights:

On the energy front, London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery rose above $102 a barrel for the first time since September 2014.

European gas futures jumped to $1,400 per 1,000 cubic meters, up from about $1,000 before the conflict.

l 能源分析:

回顾历史,与此次地缘冲突最相近的为2008年俄罗斯的格鲁吉亚战争与2014年俄罗斯对克里米亚采取行动。

在上两次冲突事件中,冲突最激烈之时即是原油价格见顶之时。

此次俄乌冲突的规模、强度比前两次危机要更大更强,本次美国对俄罗斯金融制裁也强于此前。

后续伴随局势的发展,和各方的博弈,我们认为中期几个月内,能源价格都可能在高位维持强势。

Energy analysis:

The closest historical parallels to this geopolitical conflict are Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008 and its actions in Crimea in 2014.

In both cases, oil prices peaked at the height of the conflict.

The scale and intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are bigger and stronger than the previous two crises, and the Financial sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia this time are stronger than before.

Following the development of the situation, and the game of all parties, we believe that energy prices are likely to remain strong at a high level for several months in the medium term.

美联储加息政策

本周美联储在向国会提交的货币政策报告中表示物价上涨范围扩大,推动物价上涨的因素已不再局限于供应链问题。

美联储表示,当前因美国劳动力短缺和与之相关的薪资上涨也起到了对通胀推波助澜的作用。

劳动力市场紧张导致薪资增速提高,推动了服务类价格和其他商品价格继续上涨。

美联储承认,最初集中在商品价格上的高通胀,已经扩大到服务领域,这是“一些服务行业的工资强劲增长和住房租金大幅上涨”推动的。

1月份,剔除食品和能源价格后的核心PCE同比增速也从去年12月的4.9%上升至5.2%,符合市场预期,创1983年以来的最大涨幅。核心PCE指数是美联储最为青睐的通胀指标。

本周鲍威尔公开表态仍表示在美国就业市场活跃的环境下,为了应对高通胀,将“很快”进入加息的周期,但会关注乌克兰局势发展。

美联储理事Bowman、沃勒、Waller、Bullard几人本周仍维持鹰派观点:

如果未来几周的数据继续表明经济“格外火热”,则主张在年中之前升息1个百分点,以3月升息0.5个百分点为开端。

据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch Tool显示,对美联储3月份会议至少加息50个基点的预期已降至25%。

Fed’s Interest Rates Hike Policy

In its monetary-policy report to Congress this week, the Fed said price increases were more broad-based and were being driven by supply chain issues.

The Fed said current labor shortages and related wage increases in the United States were also contributing to inflation.

Tight labor markets have led to higher wage growth, pushing prices for services and other goods higher.

The Fed acknowledged that high inflation, initially concentrated in goods prices, had spread to services, driven by “strong wage growth and substantial increases in housing rents in some service sectors”.

Core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, also rose to 5.2 per cent year-on-year in January from 4.9 per cent in December, in line with market expectations and the biggest increase since 1983. The Core PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Powell said publicly this week that he would “soon” start raising interest rates in response to high inflation in the buoyant U.S. job market, but would monitor developments in Ukraine.

Fed Governors Bowman, Waller, Waller and Bullard remained hawkish this week:

If data in coming weeks continue to point to an “exceptionally hot” economy, argue for a rate rise of 1 percentage point by mid-year, starting with a 0.5 percentage point rise in March.

Expectations for a rate hike of at least 50 basis points at the Fed’s March meeting have fallen to 25%, according to THE CME’s FedWatch Tool.

l 美联储加息政策分析:

地缘冲突将如何影响当前欧美通胀形势,以及是否会影响美联储关于加息的决策呢?

首先,俄乌战争对全球整体经济增长的影响非常小,因为俄罗斯和乌克兰加起来只占全球GDP的2%左右。

大宗商品市场(俄罗斯的油气产量分别占全球的11%和17%)带来的影响可能会更大。

原油、农产品及一些大宗商品价格可能会中期维持在一个相对较高的位置,这将助推全球通胀水平,包括欧美国家的通胀水平,为欧美本就高企的通胀继续添柴加火。

我们认为,乌克兰局势导致的通胀上行的局面不太可能阻止美联储3月启动加息。

影响美联储加息更关键的因素仍是经济数据。

考虑到在1月奥米克戎疫情严重的情况下,美国就业和经济数据依然坚挺,目前看来俄乌冲突对美国经济的影响应该非常小,暂时不会对美联储坚定加息的态度造成很大的改变。

就加息的幅度来说,在通胀高企的背景下,只要美国经济数据一直保持强势,即便首次加息幅度为25个基点,3月后某次会议加息50个基点的概率依然非常大。

l Fedral Policy Analysis:

How will geopolitical conflict affect the current inflation situation in the US and Europe, and whether it will affect the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates?

First, the impact of the War on overall global growth is very small, since Russia and Ukraine together account for only about 2 per cent of global GDP.

The impact on commodity markets could be even greater. Russia accounts for 11 per cent and 17 per cent of global oil and gas production, respectively.

Prices of crude oil, agricultural commodities and some commodities are likely to remain relatively high in the medium term, contributing to global inflation, including in the U.S. and Europe, adding fuel to already high inflation in the U.S. and Europe.

We think the upturn in inflation due to Ukraine is unlikely to deter the Fed from starting to raise rates in March.

The more crucial factor in the Fed’s decision to raise rates remains economic data.

Given that us employment and economic data remained firm despite the omicron outbreak in January, it seems that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the US economy should be minimal and will not significantly change the Fed’s firm attitude of raising interest rates for the time being.

In terms of the magnitude of the rate hike, even if the first rate hike is 25 basis points, the probability of a 50 basis point hike at some meeting after March is still very high, as long as us economic data remain strong against a backdrop of high inflation.

l 其他新闻

l Other news:

俄罗斯仅允许加密交易在许可平台和认证钱包中进行

俄罗斯财政部2月18日向俄罗斯政府提交的草案禁止在俄罗斯联邦境内使用加密货币作为支付手段,但将被视为一种投资工具,且仅可通过许可的运营商进行数字货币交易。

公民每年可投资最多60万卢布(约合7500美元)的加密货币。(Coindesk)

美国、欧盟政府承诺从 SWIFT 系统中删除“选定的”俄罗斯银行

美国和欧盟今日宣布了一项计划,从环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)中删除一组俄罗斯银行。

此外,该组织还承诺对俄罗斯央行采取行动。

“我们承诺采取限制性措施,阻止俄罗斯中央银行以破坏我们制裁影响的方式部署其国际储备。”

此前,美国总统拜登还公布了对俄制裁方案。

制裁措施主要在金融方面:

美国将对俄罗斯十家最大的金融机构,以及持有俄罗斯银行近80%资产的金融机构实施全面封锁、账户制裁,并施加债务和股权限制。

此外,还将针对俄罗斯一半以上的高科技产品进行出口管制,主要涉及俄罗斯的国防、航空和海事部门,以期长期削弱其工业和经济实力。(theblockcrypto)

汤加或将在明年二季度将比特币作为法定货币

2月24日消息,太平洋小国汤加可能在2023年第二季度将比特币作为法定货币,并在2023年第三季度开启比特币挖矿。(Cointelegraph)

道富银行寻求监管机构批准其提供加密货币托管服务

2月26日消息,美国道富银行(State Street Corp)正与美国监管机构合作,以确保一旦获得批准,就可以推出加密货币托管服务。(彭博社)

本周超过 13 亿美元的风投资金涌入加密领域

本周有超过 13 亿美元的风投投资涌入加密领域。其中包括:Luna Foundation Guard 的10 亿美元私人代币销售,这是加密领域最大规模的融资;

Amber Group 的 2 亿美元 B 轮融资

;区块链基础设施提供商 InfStones 完成的 3300 万美元 B 轮融资; DeFi 和 Web3 基础设施平台 Aligned 的 3400 万美元融资等等。(金色财经)

数据:乌克兰的加密货币交易所的交易量增涨了两倍

2月25日消息,根据CoinGecko的数据,自俄罗斯对乌克兰采取军事行动以来,截至周五,乌克兰加密交易所Kuna的交易量增加了两倍多。

比特币目前在乌克兰交易所以7%的溢价交易。(Forkast)

彭博社将提供机构加密交易功能

2月24日消息,Alan Howard旗下的Elwood Technologies宣布将于与彭博社进行战略整合,此次整合面向使用彭博社资产和管理投资管理器 (AIM) 的机构客户,提供加密投资,整合将于2022年第二季度完成。(Theblock)

欧盟议员因能源问题提议限制比特币的使用

欧盟 (EU) 立法者正在准备就管理加密资产的拟议法规进行机构间讨论,并可能会禁止比特币等能源密集型加密货币。

根据一份草案,待讨论的加密资产市场(MiCA) 监管方案包括一项可能限制在联盟 27 个成员国中使用称为工作量证明(PoW) 的共识机制的条款。(coindesk)

哈萨克斯坦政府关闭13个非法比特币矿场

哈萨克斯坦政府关闭了13个矿场,总耗电量为202兆瓦。哈萨克斯坦以18.1%的比特币挖矿份额位居世界第二。(新浪财经)

乌克兰最大比特币矿场遭攻击

俄罗斯军队在乌克兰多个地区发射导弹,包括首都基辅和哈尔科夫市。有媒体称,乌克兰最大比特币矿场被俄制导弹击中,导致矿场离线,当地算力下降33%,损失不明。(奇點財經SFL)

加州立法者提出法案,旨在允许居民以加密货币的形式支付政府服务

2月21日消息,美国加利福尼亚州民主党人、州参议员Sydney Kamlager-Dove于上周提交了参议院法案1275,考虑允许居民以加密货币的形式支付政府服务。(The Block)

Russia only allows crypto transactions on licensed platforms and certified wallets

The draft submitted to the Russian government by the Finance Ministry on February 18 bans the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment in the Russian Federation, but will be treated as an investment vehicle and transactions in the digital currency can only be conducted through licensed operators. Citizens can invest up to 600,000 rubles ($7,500) a year in cryptocurrencies. (Coindesk)

The US and EU governments promised to remove “selected” Russian banks from the SWIFT system

The US and EU today announced a plan to remove a group of Russian banks from the SWIFT network.

It also pledged to take action against Russia’s central bank.

“We commit to restrictive measures to prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”

Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden also announced sanctions against Russia.The sanctions are mainly financial:

The United States will impose a blanket blockade, account sanctions and debt and equity limits on the 10 largest Russian financial institutions, as well as those that hold nearly 80 percent of Russian banks’ assets.

In addition, export controls will target more than half of Russia’s high-tech products, mainly in the country’s defense, aviation and maritime sectors, with a view to weakening its industrial and economic power in the long term. (theblockcrypto)

Tonga may adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in the second quarter of next year

The tiny Pacific nation of Tonga is likely to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in the second quarter of 2023 and start bitcoin mining in the third quarter of 2023. (Cointelegraph)

State Street sought regulatory approval to offer cryptocurrency custody services

February 26 — State Street Corp is working with US regulators to ensure it can launch a cryptocurrency escrow service once it receives approval. (Bloomberg)

More than $1.3 billion in venture capital poured into crypto this week

More than $1.3 billion in VENTURE capital investment poured into crypto this week. Among them: Luna Foundation Guard’s $1 billion private token sale, the largest fundraising in the crypto space;

Amber Group’s $200 million Series B round

A $33 million Series B round from InfStones, a blockchain infrastructure provider; DeFi and Web3 infrastructure platform Aligned’s $34 million funding round, to name a few. (Golden Finance)

The numbers: Cryptocurrency exchanges in Ukraine have tripled in volume

February 25 — Trading volume on Ukraine’s crypto exchange Kuna has more than tripled as of Friday since Russia’s military actions against Ukraine, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin is currently trading at a 7% premium on Ukrainian exchanges. (Forkast)

Bloomberg will offer institutional crypto trading capabilities

Alan Howard’s Elwood Technologies announced a strategic integration with Bloomberg, offering crypto investments to institutional clients using Bloomberg Asset and Management Investment Manager (AIM). The integration will be completed in the second quarter of 2022. (Theblock)

European Union lawmakers have proposed restricting the use of bitcoin over energy concerns

European Union lawmakers are preparing for interinstitutional discussions on proposed regulations governing crypto assets and could ban energy-intensive cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.

According to a draft, the crypto Asset Market (MiCA) regulation package to be discussed includes a provision that could limit the use of a consensus mechanism known as proof of work (PoW) in the 27-member alliance. (coindesk)

The Kazakh government has shut down 13 illegal bitcoin mines

The kazakh government closed 13 mines that consumed 202 megawatts of electricity. Kazakhstan is second in the world with 18.1% of bitcoin mining. (Sina Finance)

Ukraine’s largest bitcoin mine has been attacked

Russian forces have fired missiles in several parts of Ukraine, including the capital Kiev and the city of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s largest bitcoin mine has been hit by a Russian-made missile, causing the mine to go offline and the local computing power to drop by 33%, according to media reports. (Singularity Finance SFL)

California lawmakers have introduced a bill aimed at allowing residents to pay for government services in the form of cryptocurrency

State Senator Sydney Kamlager-Dove, democrat of California, introduced Senate Bill 1275 last week to consider allowing residents to pay for government services in the form of cryptocurrency. (The Block)

长期洞察;用于观察我们长期境遇;牛市/熊市/结构性改变/中性状态

Long-term Insights; To see how we’re doing in the long run; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral

中期探查:用于分析我们目前处于什么阶段,在此阶段会持续多久,会面临什么情况

Mid-term Probe: To analyze where we are now, how long we are in this phase, what will happen

短期观测:用于分析短期市场状况;以及出现一些方向和在某前提下发生某种事件的可能性

Short-term Watch: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the likelihood of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term Insights

l 哈希算力值

l Hash Rate

l 相对年轻和相对成熟的交易者的持仓量

l BTC Age Maturation Band

因最近国际形势的问题,乌克兰矿场遭遇重创,所以从算力值来看对于加密市场总体变化影响

(下图 哈希算力值)

我们可以看到现在算力回到了去年5月份的高点,180多E的算力水平。

总体影响并不算非常大。

矿工选择部署位置时,应多一份警惕,考虑地缘政治的实时动态。

在更深入洞察和了解市场中,我们试图把较为沉睡的投资者和最为活跃的交易者剔除掉。

以此来更清晰的呈现出来较成熟投资者和相对年轻交易者对待行情的差别所产生持仓量的变化。

Due to the recent problems in the international situation, Ukrainian mines have been hit hard, so from the calculation value of the overall impact on the crypto market changes

We can see that the power is now back to the high it was last May, 180-plus E.

The overall effect is not very large.

Miners should choose deployment locations with an extra layer of caution, taking into account real-time geopolitical dynamics.

We try to weed out the sleepier investors and the most active traders in our search for deeper insight and understanding of the market.

In order to more clearly present the more mature investors and relatively young traders to treat the price difference produced by the change of position.

(下图 相对年轻和相对成熟的交易者的持仓量)

l 绿色线:1–2年投资者持仓量

l 橙黄线:6月-1年交易者持仓量

l green line: the amount of positions held by investors over 1–2 years

l orange-Yellow line: The amount of positions a trader holds 6 month -1 year

可以看到当较活跃(6月-1年)和较成熟投资者(1–2年)都将持仓头寸卖出的时;

较大概率可能因为无法支撑行情持续而产生剧烈波动或下行风险。

当较活跃和较成熟投资者都将持仓头寸增持时市场往往因为支撑不会产生太大下行问题。

看目前现状,成熟投资者选择增持,目前持仓量已经达到110万枚。

较为活跃交易者选择减持偏观望,目前持仓量达到80万枚。

之前与此最为接近的是在2018年末-2019年初,市场底部区域呈现了类似的情景。另一个较为接近的场景在2020年7月中旬。

当然与之前不同的是,这次成熟投资者增持速率更加坚决,斜率上升较高。

如果后续成熟投资者持续增持,按照这个逻辑来看,市场也许没有那么悲观。

如果后期活跃交易者一起跟着增持,或许长期看市场会相对乐观一些。

It can be seen that when both the more active (6 months-1 year) and the more mature (1–2 years) investors sell their open positions;

There is a high probability that volatility or downside risk may occur due to failure to sustain the market.

When both the more active and the more mature investors are adding to their positions, the market tends to have less downside problems because of support.

Look at the current situation, mature investors choose to increase their holdings, the current holding volume has reached 1.1 million.

More active traders choose to reduce the partial wait-and-see, current positions reached 800,000.

The closest we’ve come before was in late 2018 and early 2019, when the market bottoms showed a similar pattern. A closer scenario is in mid-July 2020.

Of course, different from before, this time mature investors increase their holdings at a more determined rate with a higher slope.

If subsequent mature investors continue to add to their holdings, the market may not be so pessimistic by this logic.

If the late active traders together to increase their holdings, perhaps the long-term view of the market will be relatively optimistic.

Medium-term probe

l 非零余额地址30天内的变化

l No-Zero 30-day Change

l 抛售筹码的盈亏及年龄状况

l Profitability and age of coins sold

l 累计余额地址

l Total Balance in Accumulated Account

l 非流动性供应群体净头寸

l Illiquid Supply

l 交易所净头寸

l Exchange Net Position

l 长期交易者净头寸

l Long-term Holder Net Position

l 钻石手净头寸

l Hodler Net Position

l 矿工净头寸

l Miner Net Position

l 稳定币余额

l Stable Coin on Exchange

l 巨鲸未用供应

l Whales’ unspent supply

l 存款地址数目

l No. of Saving Addresses

先看非零余额地址30天内的变化情况,从持有用户的角度判断市场的基本状况。

First look at the change of non-zero balance address within 30 days, from the perspective of holding users to judge the basic situation of the market.

(下图 非零余额地址30天内的变化)

在这轮回调之后,明显注意到持币用户的状态相对冷淡一些,非零余额地址在一个较为中性的区间徘徊。

继续来看一下市场中近期卖方的年龄状况,以及他们的盈亏状态。

After this cycle, it is obviously noticed that the sentiment of coin holders is relatively cold, and the non-zero balance addresses hover in a neutral range.

Moving on, let’s look at the ages of recent sellers in the market and their profit and loss positions.

(下图 抛售筹码的盈亏及年龄状况)

紫线为筹码的花费状况,1以上为盈利抛出;1以下为亏损抛出。

可以很明显地看到这几天在抛售的筹码平均年龄在20–40天左右,皆为近期的筹码。

同时,我们注意到近期积累余额地址出现的下降的情况,而累积地址被定义为那些至少有两笔买入的交易,但从未产生交易的地址。

The purple line is the spend status of chips, above 1 is sale at profit; below 1 is sell at loss .

It is obvious that the average age of the chips sold in these days is about 20–40 days, and they are all recent chips.

At the same time, we have noted a recent decline in accumulated balance addresses, which are defined as those that have had at least two purchases but never generated a trade.

(下图 累积余额地址)

目前看他们在减少积累的状态,这期间可能对市场有些许影响。

我们从各个角度看市场中的净头寸变化,

先看非流动性供应群体的净头寸变化,

At present, they are reducing the accumulation, this period may have a slight impact on the market.

We look at the net position change in the market from all angles,

Look first at the change in net position of the illiquid supplier group,

(下图 非流动性供应群体净头寸)

非流动性供应群体有所增加。

交易所净头寸目前显示净流入的状态。

The pool of illiquid suppliers has increased.

Net exchange position currently indicates the status of net inflow.

(下图 交易所净头寸)

长期交易者和钻石手、矿工的净头寸依然是减持状态。

Long-term traders and hodlers and miners remain underweighting.

(下图 长期交易者净头寸)

(下图 钻石手净头寸)

(下图 矿工净头寸)

再来看利润冲击的状况,目前利润冲击正处于下降的趋势。

Look at the situation of profit supply shock, the current profit shock is in a declining trend.

(下图 利润冲击)

再看稳定币的基本情况,目前稳定币有所下降,但当下不确定的局势,给市场带来不确定性,大部分还处于旁观状态。

Looking at the basic situation of stablecoin, stablecoin has declined to some extent at present, but the current uncertain situation brings uncertainty to the market, and most of them remain on the sidelines.

(下图 稳定币余额)

我们接着看巨鲸未用供应的状况,目前仍然在徘徊。

We move on to the unspent supply of whales, which is still hovering.

(下图 巨鲸未用供应)

最后看存款地址余额,目前处于一个较低的位置。

Finally, look at the deposit address balance, currently in a low position.

(下图 存款地址数目)

Short-term Watch

l 永续期货未平仓合约

l Futures Open Interest Perpetual

l 永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值的比例

l Perp OI/ Market Cap

l 平均花费输出寿命

l SMOL

l 短期交易者净未实现盈亏比

l Short-Term Holder NUPL

l 短期交易者供应损失

l Total Supply in Loss by STH

l 亏损转移量

l Volume of Transfer in Loss

l 短期交易者盈亏比

l Short-term Holder Profit Loss Ratio

l 短期交易者供应

l Short-Term Holder Supply

首先我们先回顾衍生品市场。

本周的上涨达到了去杠杆化的效果,主要对空头力量进行了打击。

永续期货未平仓合约减少了约22646个冰糖橙,约占比总量0.119%。

First, let’s review the derivatives market.

This week’s rally has deleveraged, mainly hitting the shorts.

Open interest in Perpetuity futures decreased by about 22,646 ice sugar oranges, or about 0.119% of the total.

(下图 永续期货未平仓合约)

整体的衍生品市场风险有明显下降,目前徘徊于中风险阶段。

The risk of the overall derivatives market has declined significantly and is now hovering in the middle risk stage.

(下图 永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值的比例)

接下来回归现货市场。

Next comes to the spot market.

(下图 平均花费输出寿命)

我们回顾一年的时间内,平均花费输出异常增高时,将会为市场带来一定的压力,大概率造成市场进一步下跌。

目前平均花费输出暂时无异常,大概率对当下市场的抛售压力较小。

接下来我们观察短期交易者的亏损状况如何?

We look back over a period of one year, when the average cost output is abnormally high, it will bring some pressure to the market, and it is likely to cause the market to fall further.

At present, the average cost output temporarily has no abnormal situation, large probability that there is small selling pressure.

Now let’s look at the losses of short-term traders.

(下图 短期交易者净未实现盈亏比)

短期交易者的净未实现盈亏比目前约为-19%,这意味着短期交易者的盈利能力并不太好,同时当该值长期处于0以下时,市场更偏向于熊市的积累阶段,但是一定的积累,同样是为后市做准备。

我们来看短期交易者具体的亏损状况。

At present, the net unrealized profit and loss ratio of short-term traders is about -19%, which means that the profitability of short-term traders is not very good. At the same time, when the value is below 0 for a long time, the market is more inclined to the accumulation stage of bear market, but certain accumulation is also to prepare for the future market.

Let’s look at the specific loss of short-term traders.

(下图 短期交易者供应损失)

短期交易者供应亏损,目前占比约为14.08%,达到2022年1月下旬同期的亏损状态。

Short-term traders now account for about 14.08% of the supply losses, matching the same period in late January 2022.

(下图 亏损转移量)

亏损转移量达到一年时间内中新的高度,有约50909个冰糖橙亏损转移,约占总量0.268%。

再详细看短期交易者的盈亏比率,目前盈亏比约为0.25,落于1以下。

当一段较长的时间低于1以下时,当下的市场更偏向于积累阶段。

Loss transfer volume reached a new high in a year, about 50,909 sugar orange loss transfer, about 0.268% of the total.

Taking a closer look at the break-even ratio for short-term traders, the current break-even ratio is about 0.25, well below 1.

When the market is below 1 for an extended period of time, the current market is more in the accumulation phase.

(下图 短期交易者盈亏比)

综合短期交易者的亏损状态和亏损转移量以及短期交易者盈亏比,我们可以看到在本轮过程中,对短期交易的盈利能力有所打击,在短期市场上行中将会是一个较大的阻力之一。

最后我们再综合市场的承接力量。

Considering the loss status and turnover of short-term traders as well as the profit and loss ratio of short-term traders, we can see that in this round of process, the profitability of short-term trading has been hit, which will be one of the larger obstacles to the short-term market upward.

Finally, we will integrate the market to undertake power.

(下图 短期交易者供应)

短期交易者在2021年4月中旬高位回落之后一直减持,现阶段重新出现积累的迹象,若持续积累,对后续推动市场上升是比较重要的力量,这对后市相对是一个良性的信号。

综上分析,市场的抛售压力较小,短期交易的亏损状态处于较高位以及短期交易者的微弱积累,在短期之内迅速推动市场上行仍然有较大的压力,大概率会维持在一定的范围之内波动。

Short-term traders have been reducing their holdings after falling from the high level in mid-April 2021. At present, there are signs of accumulation again. If the accumulation continues, it is a relatively important force to promote the subsequent rise of the market, which is a relatively benign signal for the future market.

To sum up, there is little selling pressure in the market, short-term trading losses are at a relatively high level and short-term traders have weak accumulation. There is still great pressure to push the market up rapidly in a short term, and the probability of fluctuation will be maintained within a certain range.

本周总结:

Weekly Summary

消息面总结:

Summary of the Fundamentals:

长期:

目前已有加州、科罗拉多州、伊利诺伊州三个州提议BTC作为纳税甚至成为法定货币,需跟踪相关立法通过的进度,这对BTC将是非常强有力的背书。

道富银行是全球最大的托管银行和最大的资产管理公司之一,若其托管加密货币服务被监管机构通过,则将具有非常好的示范效应,将在长期为市场带来更多的主流资金注入。

彭博社和Elwood两家公司共同管理着900 家公司超过17万亿美元的资产;

此外,彭博社的买方订单管理系统也被15,000家机构客户使用,其增加加密交易功能也意味着大量的主流机构可更加方便的进行加密资产交易。

OTC in the long-run:

Currently, California, Colorado and Illinois have proposed that BTC be used as tax payment or even become legal tender. It is necessary to track the progress of relevant legislation, which will be a very strong endorsement of BTC.

State Street is the largest custodian bank and one of the largest asset managers in the world. If its custodian cryptocurrency service is approved by regulators, it will have a very good demonstration effect and bring more mainstream capital injection to the market in the long term.

Bloomberg and Elwood together manage 900 companies with more than $17 trillion in assets;

In addition, Bloomberg’s buyside order management system is used by 15,000 institutional clients, and the addition of crypto trading capabilities means that a large number of mainstream institutions can more easily trade crypto assets.

外盘中短期:

1. 三月需持续关注俄乌冲突是否进一步加剧;

2. 还需关注欧美对俄罗斯金融制裁,包括将其剥离Swift系统的影响;

l 例如是否会导致当地人购买加密货币作为避险资产,以给币市市场增加更多参与者和资金,另外也可能增加加密货币作为避险资产的属性。

同时政策方面:

需关注鲍威尔就美联储货币政策半年报向两院议员汇报时的讲话,以及下周五公布的2月非农就业数据。

OTC in the medium and short term:

1. Continue to pay attention to whether the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies in March;

2. Attention should also be paid to the impact of European and American financial sanctions on Russia, including its separation from Swift system;

l For example, whether to buy cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset causes local people to add more participants and funds to the coin market, and it may also increase the property of cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, in terms of policies:

Watch for Powell’s remarks when he briefs lawmakers on the Fed’s semiannual report on monetary policy and next Friday’s non-farm payrolls data for February.

中期市场:

In the Medium Term:

我们仍认为上半年在美联储的鹰派政策下,股权市场以及币市仍将以大震荡为主,下半年则将迎来修复行情。

We still believe that the first half of the year under the Hawkish Policy of the Federal Reserve, the equity market and the currency market will continue to be dominated by big shocks, and in the second half of the year we will see a recovery.

链上长期洞察:

The market in the long-run:

1. 哈希算力值或因国际政治局势产生些许回落。

2. 较为活跃交易者在减持偏观望,较为成熟投资者在增持。两者形成倒挂,与此最接近的比率在2018年末。

l 市场定调:

中性;较活跃交易者和成熟投资者仓位比例形成倒挂。

1. The value of hash power may fall slightly due to the international political situation.

2. More active traders are reducing their holdings while more mature investors are increasing their holdings. The two are inverted, with the closest ratio at the end of 2018.

l Market Tone:

Neutral; More active traders and mature investors position proportion formed inverted.

链上中期探查:

Market in the medium term:

1. 从非零地址余额的变化来看,目前处于徘徊的阶段,市场相对中性。

2. 目前长期交易者,矿工和钻石手仍然是减持的状态,累计余额的地址下降。

3. 交易所净头寸多日后首次出现净流入的状态,如果有进一步的净流入变化,需做好风控。

4. 看最近售出的筹码皆为20–40天左右的筹码,稳定币余额有些许下降,到达交易所的存款目前较低。

l 市场定调:

目前偏中性;各阶段交易者似乎信心不足,但目前情况来看,卖方也较为平和,留意当下不确定性事件对市场的影响。

1. The value of hash power may fall slightly due to the international political situation.

2. More active traders are reducing their holdings while more mature investors are increasing their holdings. The two are inverted, with the closest ratio at the end of 2018.

l Market Tone:

Neutral; More active traders and mature investors position proportion formed inverted.

链上短期观测:

1. 衍生品市场在去杠杆化之后风险有所下降,目前位于中风险区。

2. 当下市场的抛售压力较小。

3. 目前短期交易者的盈利能力较弱,有约占总量14.08%的冰糖橙处于亏损状态中。

4. 市场承接力量较为微弱,但呈现积累趋势。

l 市场定调:

在没有利空的前提下,从链上看,市场没有大跌的基础,更加偏向大震荡。

其它,需要进一步观察外盘对市场的影响。
Market in the short term:

1. After deleveraging, the derivatives market has become less risky and is now located in the mid-risk zone.

2. There is less selling pressure in the current market.

3. At present, the profitability of short-term traders is relatively weak, accounting for about 14.08% of the total sugar oranges in a loss state.

4. The market undertaking force is relatively weak, but it shows an accumulation trend.

l Market Tone:

On no bearish premise, from the chain, the market does not show basis for big drop, more biased to big oscillation.

We also need to further observe the impact of the macro on the market.

风险提示:

以上均为市场讨论和探索,对投资不具有指向性意见;请谨慎看待和预防市场黑天鹅风险。

此报告为“金蛋crypto”研究院所提供:

金蛋日记;拾年 ;elk crypto; Leah;

Disclaimer:

All the above are market discussion and exploration, and does not contain directional investment guidance; Please be cautious and guard against the market black swan risk.

This report is provided by the “Golden Egg Crypto” Research:

金蛋日记;拾年 ;elk crypto; Leah ;

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