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The global situation is further intensified, what kind of test will crypto assets face?


“Our aim is to help market participants with professional skill and greater focus to better understand the market and make wiser decisions.”

Recap of this week


l 观察近期筹码分布图,在38400有附近有密集的筹码成交,将有一定的支撑或压力。

l 同样在41800–43900附近有密集的筹码成交,该点位有可能成为市场上行压力。

This week from February 21 to February 27, the highest sugar orange near 40200, the lowest close to 34350, concussion range reached about 15.34%.

l According to the recent chip distribution map, there is a certain amount of support or pressure in the vicinity of 38400 when there are dense chip transactions.

l At the same time, there is a heavy transaction of chips around 41800–43900, which can act as upward pressure on the market.


Weekly Important News and Over the Counter Analysis


The impact on global asset prices of this week’s conflict between Russia and Ukraine






US Stock Market Highlights:

For the week, the Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The VIX market volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed down 0.58% at 27.59, still in extreme fear territory.

U.S. stocks pulled out of deep V’s this week after three days of steep losses amid the russia-Ukraine conflict and two days of sharp gains on Thursday and Friday.

The Nasdaq rose 4.98% on Thursday and Friday, while the S&P gained 3.74% and the Dow 2.79%.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its biggest one-day percentage gain since November 2020 on Friday.

l 美股分析



l US Stock Market Analysis:

We see this kind of large one-day volatility as a sign that the market sees more uncertainty in the short term and a bear market rally rather than a reversal.

A look at the U.S. stock market during historical geopolitical conflicts:



Historical data show that since the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, the U.S. stock market generally fell in the short term, with an impact range of 10–30 days, and then quickly repaired.

The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been breaking out for about a week, and if past patterns are any guide, the conflict is likely to have a certain impact on THE U.S. stock market in the next three weeks.


COMEX 4月黄金期货收跌2.0%,报1887.60美元/盎司,本周累跌约0.6%,而周四曾触及1976.50美元的1.5年高点。

Gold Highlights:

COMEX gold futures for April delivery ended down 2.0 percent at $1,877.60 an ounce, down about 0.6 percent for the week after hitting a 1.5-year high of $1,976.50 on Thursday.

l 黄金分析:


l Gold analysis:

The pullback in gold prices over the past two days may be due to the fact that the U.S. has already imposed heavier sanctions on Russia, and the market may predict that the event will end in the short term.



BTC Highlights:

Local cryptocurrency exchanges in Ukraine doubled in volume this week; Turkish citizens also bought in bulk during last year’s unrest.

l BTC分析:




l BTC analysis:

Currently, people in the region concerned tend to use the BTC as a safe haven asset in the event of a national crisis.

However, BTC is still not considered a safe haven asset for the financial market as a whole.

On Feb. 22, BTC fell to its lowest level relative to gold since mid-2021 before rebounding somewhat, but remains cheap compared to gold.


目前看来, BTC与美股联动趋势仍很高。

我们认为 BTC作为金融资产最大的升值逻辑仍是全球货币超发,以及货币超发带来的资产贬值,所以对其价格影响最大的金融方面因素仍是美联储收水。

After the crisis, BTC and THE US stock market hit a deep V on the same day and rebounded at the same time.

At present, BTC and the US stock market linkage is still very high.

We believe that the biggest appreciation logic of BTC as a financial asset is still the overissuance of global currency and the depreciation of assets brought by the overissuance of currency. Therefore, the most influential financial factor on its price is still the withdrawal of water by the Federal Reserve.




Energy Highlights:

On the energy front, London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery rose above $102 a barrel for the first time since September 2014.

European gas futures jumped to $1,400 per 1,000 cubic meters, up from about $1,000 before the conflict.

l 能源分析:





Energy analysis:

The closest historical parallels to this geopolitical conflict are Russia’s war in Georgia in 2008 and its actions in Crimea in 2014.

In both cases, oil prices peaked at the height of the conflict.

The scale and intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are bigger and stronger than the previous two crises, and the Financial sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia this time are stronger than before.

Following the development of the situation, and the game of all parties, we believe that energy prices are likely to remain strong at a high level for several months in the medium term.










据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch Tool显示,对美联储3月份会议至少加息50个基点的预期已降至25%。

Fed’s Interest Rates Hike Policy

In its monetary-policy report to Congress this week, the Fed said price increases were more broad-based and were being driven by supply chain issues.

The Fed said current labor shortages and related wage increases in the United States were also contributing to inflation.

Tight labor markets have led to higher wage growth, pushing prices for services and other goods higher.

The Fed acknowledged that high inflation, initially concentrated in goods prices, had spread to services, driven by “strong wage growth and substantial increases in housing rents in some service sectors”.

Core PCE, which strips out food and energy prices, also rose to 5.2 per cent year-on-year in January from 4.9 per cent in December, in line with market expectations and the biggest increase since 1983. The Core PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Powell said publicly this week that he would “soon” start raising interest rates in response to high inflation in the buoyant U.S. job market, but would monitor developments in Ukraine.

Fed Governors Bowman, Waller, Waller and Bullard remained hawkish this week:

If data in coming weeks continue to point to an “exceptionally hot” economy, argue for a rate rise of 1 percentage point by mid-year, starting with a 0.5 percentage point rise in March.

Expectations for a rate hike of at least 50 basis points at the Fed’s March meeting have fallen to 25%, according to THE CME’s FedWatch Tool.

l 美联储加息政策分析:









l Fedral Policy Analysis:

How will geopolitical conflict affect the current inflation situation in the US and Europe, and whether it will affect the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates?

First, the impact of the War on overall global growth is very small, since Russia and Ukraine together account for only about 2 per cent of global GDP.

The impact on commodity markets could be even greater. Russia accounts for 11 per cent and 17 per cent of global oil and gas production, respectively.

Prices of crude oil, agricultural commodities and some commodities are likely to remain relatively high in the medium term, contributing to global inflation, including in the U.S. and Europe, adding fuel to already high inflation in the U.S. and Europe.

We think the upturn in inflation due to Ukraine is unlikely to deter the Fed from starting to raise rates in March.

The more crucial factor in the Fed’s decision to raise rates remains economic data.

Given that us employment and economic data remained firm despite the omicron outbreak in January, it seems that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the US economy should be minimal and will not significantly change the Fed’s firm attitude of raising interest rates for the time being.

In terms of the magnitude of the rate hike, even if the first rate hike is 25 basis points, the probability of a 50 basis point hike at some meeting after March is still very high, as long as us economic data remain strong against a backdrop of high inflation.

l 其他新闻

l Other news:




美国、欧盟政府承诺从 SWIFT 系统中删除“选定的”俄罗斯银行











2月26日消息,美国道富银行(State Street Corp)正与美国监管机构合作,以确保一旦获得批准,就可以推出加密货币托管服务。(彭博社)

本周超过 13 亿美元的风投资金涌入加密领域

本周有超过 13 亿美元的风投投资涌入加密领域。其中包括:Luna Foundation Guard 的10 亿美元私人代币销售,这是加密领域最大规模的融资;

Amber Group 的 2 亿美元 B 轮融资

;区块链基础设施提供商 InfStones 完成的 3300 万美元 B 轮融资; DeFi 和 Web3 基础设施平台 Aligned 的 3400 万美元融资等等。(金色财经)





2月24日消息,Alan Howard旗下的Elwood Technologies宣布将于与彭博社进行战略整合,此次整合面向使用彭博社资产和管理投资管理器 (AIM) 的机构客户,提供加密投资,整合将于2022年第二季度完成。(Theblock)


欧盟 (EU) 立法者正在准备就管理加密资产的拟议法规进行机构间讨论,并可能会禁止比特币等能源密集型加密货币。

根据一份草案,待讨论的加密资产市场(MiCA) 监管方案包括一项可能限制在联盟 27 个成员国中使用称为工作量证明(PoW) 的共识机制的条款。(coindesk)






2月21日消息,美国加利福尼亚州民主党人、州参议员Sydney Kamlager-Dove于上周提交了参议院法案1275,考虑允许居民以加密货币的形式支付政府服务。(The Block)

Russia only allows crypto transactions on licensed platforms and certified wallets

The draft submitted to the Russian government by the Finance Ministry on February 18 bans the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment in the Russian Federation, but will be treated as an investment vehicle and transactions in the digital currency can only be conducted through licensed operators. Citizens can invest up to 600,000 rubles ($7,500) a year in cryptocurrencies. (Coindesk)

The US and EU governments promised to remove “selected” Russian banks from the SWIFT system

The US and EU today announced a plan to remove a group of Russian banks from the SWIFT network.

It also pledged to take action against Russia’s central bank.

“We commit to restrictive measures to prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”

Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden also announced sanctions against Russia.The sanctions are mainly financial:

The United States will impose a blanket blockade, account sanctions and debt and equity limits on the 10 largest Russian financial institutions, as well as those that hold nearly 80 percent of Russian banks’ assets.

In addition, export controls will target more than half of Russia’s high-tech products, mainly in the country’s defense, aviation and maritime sectors, with a view to weakening its industrial and economic power in the long term. (theblockcrypto)

Tonga may adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in the second quarter of next year

The tiny Pacific nation of Tonga is likely to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in the second quarter of 2023 and start bitcoin mining in the third quarter of 2023. (Cointelegraph)

State Street sought regulatory approval to offer cryptocurrency custody services

February 26 — State Street Corp is working with US regulators to ensure it can launch a cryptocurrency escrow service once it receives approval. (Bloomberg)

More than $1.3 billion in venture capital poured into crypto this week

More than $1.3 billion in VENTURE capital investment poured into crypto this week. Among them: Luna Foundation Guard’s $1 billion private token sale, the largest fundraising in the crypto space;

Amber Group’s $200 million Series B round

A $33 million Series B round from InfStones, a blockchain infrastructure provider; DeFi and Web3 infrastructure platform Aligned’s $34 million funding round, to name a few. (Golden Finance)

The numbers: Cryptocurrency exchanges in Ukraine have tripled in volume

February 25 — Trading volume on Ukraine’s crypto exchange Kuna has more than tripled as of Friday since Russia’s military actions against Ukraine, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin is currently trading at a 7% premium on Ukrainian exchanges. (Forkast)

Bloomberg will offer institutional crypto trading capabilities

Alan Howard’s Elwood Technologies announced a strategic integration with Bloomberg, offering crypto investments to institutional clients using Bloomberg Asset and Management Investment Manager (AIM). The integration will be completed in the second quarter of 2022. (Theblock)

European Union lawmakers have proposed restricting the use of bitcoin over energy concerns

European Union lawmakers are preparing for interinstitutional discussions on proposed regulations governing crypto assets and could ban energy-intensive cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.

According to a draft, the crypto Asset Market (MiCA) regulation package to be discussed includes a provision that could limit the use of a consensus mechanism known as proof of work (PoW) in the 27-member alliance. (coindesk)

The Kazakh government has shut down 13 illegal bitcoin mines

The kazakh government closed 13 mines that consumed 202 megawatts of electricity. Kazakhstan is second in the world with 18.1% of bitcoin mining. (Sina Finance)

Ukraine’s largest bitcoin mine has been attacked

Russian forces have fired missiles in several parts of Ukraine, including the capital Kiev and the city of Kharkiv. Ukraine’s largest bitcoin mine has been hit by a Russian-made missile, causing the mine to go offline and the local computing power to drop by 33%, according to media reports. (Singularity Finance SFL)

California lawmakers have introduced a bill aimed at allowing residents to pay for government services in the form of cryptocurrency

State Senator Sydney Kamlager-Dove, democrat of California, introduced Senate Bill 1275 last week to consider allowing residents to pay for government services in the form of cryptocurrency. (The Block)


Long-term Insights; To see how we’re doing in the long run; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral


Mid-term Probe: To analyze where we are now, how long we are in this phase, what will happen


Short-term Watch: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the likelihood of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term Insights

l 哈希算力值

l Hash Rate

l 相对年轻和相对成熟的交易者的持仓量

l BTC Age Maturation Band


(下图 哈希算力值)






Due to the recent problems in the international situation, Ukrainian mines have been hit hard, so from the calculation value of the overall impact on the crypto market changes

We can see that the power is now back to the high it was last May, 180-plus E.

The overall effect is not very large.

Miners should choose deployment locations with an extra layer of caution, taking into account real-time geopolitical dynamics.

We try to weed out the sleepier investors and the most active traders in our search for deeper insight and understanding of the market.

In order to more clearly present the more mature investors and relatively young traders to treat the price difference produced by the change of position.

(下图 相对年轻和相对成熟的交易者的持仓量)

l 绿色线:1–2年投资者持仓量

l 橙黄线:6月-1年交易者持仓量

l green line: the amount of positions held by investors over 1–2 years

l orange-Yellow line: The amount of positions a trader holds 6 month -1 year










It can be seen that when both the more active (6 months-1 year) and the more mature (1–2 years) investors sell their open positions;

There is a high probability that volatility or downside risk may occur due to failure to sustain the market.

When both the more active and the more mature investors are adding to their positions, the market tends to have less downside problems because of support.

Look at the current situation, mature investors choose to increase their holdings, the current holding volume has reached 1.1 million.

More active traders choose to reduce the partial wait-and-see, current positions reached 800,000.

The closest we’ve come before was in late 2018 and early 2019, when the market bottoms showed a similar pattern. A closer scenario is in mid-July 2020.

Of course, different from before, this time mature investors increase their holdings at a more determined rate with a higher slope.

If subsequent mature investors continue to add to their holdings, the market may not be so pessimistic by this logic.

If the late active traders together to increase their holdings, perhaps the long-term view of the market will be relatively optimistic.

Medium-term probe

l 非零余额地址30天内的变化

l No-Zero 30-day Change

l 抛售筹码的盈亏及年龄状况

l Profitability and age of coins sold

l 累计余额地址

l Total Balance in Accumulated Account

l 非流动性供应群体净头寸

l Illiquid Supply

l 交易所净头寸

l Exchange Net Position

l 长期交易者净头寸

l Long-term Holder Net Position

l 钻石手净头寸

l Hodler Net Position

l 矿工净头寸

l Miner Net Position

l 稳定币余额

l Stable Coin on Exchange

l 巨鲸未用供应

l Whales’ unspent supply

l 存款地址数目

l No. of Saving Addresses


First look at the change of non-zero balance address within 30 days, from the perspective of holding users to judge the basic situation of the market.

(下图 非零余额地址30天内的变化)



After this cycle, it is obviously noticed that the sentiment of coin holders is relatively cold, and the non-zero balance addresses hover in a neutral range.

Moving on, let’s look at the ages of recent sellers in the market and their profit and loss positions.

(下图 抛售筹码的盈亏及年龄状况)




The purple line is the spend status of chips, above 1 is sale at profit; below 1 is sell at loss .

It is obvious that the average age of the chips sold in these days is about 20–40 days, and they are all recent chips.

At the same time, we have noted a recent decline in accumulated balance addresses, which are defined as those that have had at least two purchases but never generated a trade.

(下图 累积余额地址)




At present, they are reducing the accumulation, this period may have a slight impact on the market.

We look at the net position change in the market from all angles,

Look first at the change in net position of the illiquid supplier group,

(下图 非流动性供应群体净头寸)



The pool of illiquid suppliers has increased.

Net exchange position currently indicates the status of net inflow.

(下图 交易所净头寸)


Long-term traders and hodlers and miners remain underweighting.

(下图 长期交易者净头寸)

(下图 钻石手净头寸)

(下图 矿工净头寸)


Look at the situation of profit supply shock, the current profit shock is in a declining trend.

(下图 利润冲击)


Looking at the basic situation of stablecoin, stablecoin has declined to some extent at present, but the current uncertain situation brings uncertainty to the market, and most of them remain on the sidelines.

(下图 稳定币余额)


We move on to the unspent supply of whales, which is still hovering.

(下图 巨鲸未用供应)


Finally, look at the deposit address balance, currently in a low position.

(下图 存款地址数目)

Short-term Watch

l 永续期货未平仓合约

l Futures Open Interest Perpetual

l 永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值的比例

l Perp OI/ Market Cap

l 平均花费输出寿命


l 短期交易者净未实现盈亏比

l Short-Term Holder NUPL

l 短期交易者供应损失

l Total Supply in Loss by STH

l 亏损转移量

l Volume of Transfer in Loss

l 短期交易者盈亏比

l Short-term Holder Profit Loss Ratio

l 短期交易者供应

l Short-Term Holder Supply




First, let’s review the derivatives market.

This week’s rally has deleveraged, mainly hitting the shorts.

Open interest in Perpetuity futures decreased by about 22,646 ice sugar oranges, or about 0.119% of the total.

(下图 永续期货未平仓合约)


The risk of the overall derivatives market has declined significantly and is now hovering in the middle risk stage.

(下图 永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值的比例)


Next comes to the spot market.

(下图 平均花费输出寿命)




We look back over a period of one year, when the average cost output is abnormally high, it will bring some pressure to the market, and it is likely to cause the market to fall further.

At present, the average cost output temporarily has no abnormal situation, large probability that there is small selling pressure.

Now let’s look at the losses of short-term traders.

(下图 短期交易者净未实现盈亏比)



At present, the net unrealized profit and loss ratio of short-term traders is about -19%, which means that the profitability of short-term traders is not very good. At the same time, when the value is below 0 for a long time, the market is more inclined to the accumulation stage of bear market, but certain accumulation is also to prepare for the future market.

Let’s look at the specific loss of short-term traders.

(下图 短期交易者供应损失)


Short-term traders now account for about 14.08% of the supply losses, matching the same period in late January 2022.

(下图 亏损转移量)




Loss transfer volume reached a new high in a year, about 50,909 sugar orange loss transfer, about 0.268% of the total.

Taking a closer look at the break-even ratio for short-term traders, the current break-even ratio is about 0.25, well below 1.

When the market is below 1 for an extended period of time, the current market is more in the accumulation phase.

(下图 短期交易者盈亏比)



Considering the loss status and turnover of short-term traders as well as the profit and loss ratio of short-term traders, we can see that in this round of process, the profitability of short-term trading has been hit, which will be one of the larger obstacles to the short-term market upward.

Finally, we will integrate the market to undertake power.

(下图 短期交易者供应)



Short-term traders have been reducing their holdings after falling from the high level in mid-April 2021. At present, there are signs of accumulation again. If the accumulation continues, it is a relatively important force to promote the subsequent rise of the market, which is a relatively benign signal for the future market.

To sum up, there is little selling pressure in the market, short-term trading losses are at a relatively high level and short-term traders have weak accumulation. There is still great pressure to push the market up rapidly in a short term, and the probability of fluctuation will be maintained within a certain range.


Weekly Summary


Summary of the Fundamentals:




彭博社和Elwood两家公司共同管理着900 家公司超过17万亿美元的资产;


OTC in the long-run:

Currently, California, Colorado and Illinois have proposed that BTC be used as tax payment or even become legal tender. It is necessary to track the progress of relevant legislation, which will be a very strong endorsement of BTC.

State Street is the largest custodian bank and one of the largest asset managers in the world. If its custodian cryptocurrency service is approved by regulators, it will have a very good demonstration effect and bring more mainstream capital injection to the market in the long term.

Bloomberg and Elwood together manage 900 companies with more than $17 trillion in assets;

In addition, Bloomberg’s buyside order management system is used by 15,000 institutional clients, and the addition of crypto trading capabilities means that a large number of mainstream institutions can more easily trade crypto assets.


1. 三月需持续关注俄乌冲突是否进一步加剧;

2. 还需关注欧美对俄罗斯金融制裁,包括将其剥离Swift系统的影响;

l 例如是否会导致当地人购买加密货币作为避险资产,以给币市市场增加更多参与者和资金,另外也可能增加加密货币作为避险资产的属性。



OTC in the medium and short term:

1. Continue to pay attention to whether the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies in March;

2. Attention should also be paid to the impact of European and American financial sanctions on Russia, including its separation from Swift system;

l For example, whether to buy cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset causes local people to add more participants and funds to the coin market, and it may also increase the property of cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, in terms of policies:

Watch for Powell’s remarks when he briefs lawmakers on the Fed’s semiannual report on monetary policy and next Friday’s non-farm payrolls data for February.


In the Medium Term:


We still believe that the first half of the year under the Hawkish Policy of the Federal Reserve, the equity market and the currency market will continue to be dominated by big shocks, and in the second half of the year we will see a recovery.


The market in the long-run:

1. 哈希算力值或因国际政治局势产生些许回落。

2. 较为活跃交易者在减持偏观望,较为成熟投资者在增持。两者形成倒挂,与此最接近的比率在2018年末。

l 市场定调:


1. The value of hash power may fall slightly due to the international political situation.

2. More active traders are reducing their holdings while more mature investors are increasing their holdings. The two are inverted, with the closest ratio at the end of 2018.

l Market Tone:

Neutral; More active traders and mature investors position proportion formed inverted.


Market in the medium term:

1. 从非零地址余额的变化来看,目前处于徘徊的阶段,市场相对中性。

2. 目前长期交易者,矿工和钻石手仍然是减持的状态,累计余额的地址下降。

3. 交易所净头寸多日后首次出现净流入的状态,如果有进一步的净流入变化,需做好风控。

4. 看最近售出的筹码皆为20–40天左右的筹码,稳定币余额有些许下降,到达交易所的存款目前较低。

l 市场定调:


1. The value of hash power may fall slightly due to the international political situation.

2. More active traders are reducing their holdings while more mature investors are increasing their holdings. The two are inverted, with the closest ratio at the end of 2018.

l Market Tone:

Neutral; More active traders and mature investors position proportion formed inverted.


1. 衍生品市场在去杠杆化之后风险有所下降,目前位于中风险区。

2. 当下市场的抛售压力较小。

3. 目前短期交易者的盈利能力较弱,有约占总量14.08%的冰糖橙处于亏损状态中。

4. 市场承接力量较为微弱,但呈现积累趋势。

l 市场定调:


Market in the short term:

1. After deleveraging, the derivatives market has become less risky and is now located in the mid-risk zone.

2. There is less selling pressure in the current market.

3. At present, the profitability of short-term traders is relatively weak, accounting for about 14.08% of the total sugar oranges in a loss state.

4. The market undertaking force is relatively weak, but it shows an accumulation trend.

l Market Tone:

On no bearish premise, from the chain, the market does not show basis for big drop, more biased to big oscillation.

We also need to further observe the impact of the macro on the market.




金蛋日记;拾年 ;elk crypto; Leah;


All the above are market discussion and exploration, and does not contain directional investment guidance; Please be cautious and guard against the market black swan risk.

This report is provided by the “Golden Egg Crypto” Research:

金蛋日记;拾年 ;elk crypto; Leah ;

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