Bitcoin (BTC) is looking shaky at the start of a new week as $60,000 remains out of reach — could anything change in the coming days?
After an average weekend which failed to deliver the breakout that many had hoped for, Bitcoin is clinging to the mid-$50,000 range.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that can help shape future price performance.
Coinbase IPO a beacon in flat macro sea
Stock markets were unimpressive on Monday, April 5 with many Asian markets closed for public holidays and United States futures seeing little movement.
Following the Suez Canal debacle, oil was the only commodity with noticeable energy as a decision from OPEC+ countries to increase supply put pressure on prices.
With a lack of momentum available, Bitcoin, therefore, had little to sustain any macro-influenced price run, and $60,000 resistance remained in place at the time of writing.
One major event that crypto analysts are eagerly waiting for, however, is Coinbase’s IPO set for April 14.
As Cointelegraph reported, the event is a milestone for the industry but could be accompanied by selling on launch day — a practice seen with other IPOs both old and new.
Elsewhere, U.S. bond yield rises remained a worry this week with their upward trajectory coinciding with a lack of progress for safe havens more widely.
“The repricing of inflation risk and U.S. rates, which will impact discount rates of future earnings and the way stocks are being valued is a source of uncertainty,” Johanna Chua, chief economist for Citigroup Global Markets, told Bloomberg.
“The other uncertainty is the pace of the vaccinations and the virus.”
Analyst: Bitcoin is at the “$3-5K stage” of 2021 bull run
Bitcoin may be struggling for new support, but hodlers need to zoom out for the real picture.
That was the mood among analysts on Monday as BTC/USD headed lower toward $56,000.
After challenging $60,000 yet again late on Friday, the weekend saw bearish moves take over, culminating in a dip to $56,500.
A subsequent rebound was muted, with $57,000 forming a temporary focal point at the time of writing.
“The support resistance battle is intense,” on-chain data service Whalemap added about current behavior on Sunday.
“Levels from last week are working pretty well. Bitcoin is being capped by the $60,045 level pretty spot on. Is this the calm before the storm?”
For popular Twitter analyst William Clemente, however, there was little reason to be bearish on longer timeframes, which have the support of a tranche of positive on-chain data.
“This Bitcoin Bull Run is still far from overheated on multiple on-chain indicators,” he summarized.
“In comparison to 2017, it appears we’re around the $3k-5k range.”
Clemente uploaded a comparative chart showing Bitcoin’s 2013 and 2017 price tops via the Puell Multiple, a classic metric that continues to signal that there is room for growth before a profit-taking sell-off can begin.
Such an early position in the bull cycle implies that the majority of upward price performance is yet to come for Bitcoin, something which would give credence to some of the higher year-end forecasts — $288,000 and more.
No one’s selling
On the topic of miner selling, this is a habit yet to reappear this month.
Despite Bitcoin lingering near all-time highs alongside record network hash rate and mining difficulty, there is no appetite to take profit on mined coins yet, data shows.
Compiled by on-chain monitoring resource Glassnode, the miner net position change has signalled miners retaining their newly-acquired coins over the past week.
By contrast, 2021 has been broadly marked by sell-offs, particularly in January as Bitcoin hit $40,000 for the first time. Sales have come to a halt since, however, regardless of continued — albeit slower — price gains.
“Still not selling, still accumulating, clear trend,” quant analyst Lex Moskovski commented on the Glassnode numbers.
In tandem with miners come exchanges, which continue to see their BTC balances decrease. Traders, then, are no more interested in selling at near $60,000 than anyone else.
Purpose ETF nears 17,000 BTC holdings
Conspicuously bullish this month are institutions — and they are putting their money where their mouth is, the latest figures say.
With open interest in Bitcoin futures markets near all-time highs, institution-grade products continue to see huge demand — albeit if the price is right.
As such, the first licensed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada, the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, keeps adding BTC in step with its assets under management (AUM).
As of April 5, Purpose held 16,462 BTC and $22.1 billion CAD ($17.56 billion USD) in AUM, having only launched its ETF two months ago.
As Cointelegraph reported, the pressure is likely on the U.S. to follow Canada in allowing an ETF onto the market, with such a product set to receive multiples of what Purpose has been able to draw from institutions in its home jurisdiction.
All this, however, could be coming at the expense of a stalwart institutional player, Grayscale, and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
In a battle over fees, GBTC may be losing interest to the more economical Purpose, which is one of multiple Bitcoin offerings undercutting the company on its management costs to clients.
Time to channel “situational awareness”
In a classic sign that the mantra of “the longer the perspective, the better” remains best for Bitcoiners, the popular stock-to-flow price forecasting model remains right on track for $288,000 and higher.
As noted by its creator, quant analyst PlanB on Sunday, the model’s “bull/bear recognition signal” is casually repeating its movements from 2013 and 2017.
An accompanying chart showed BTC/USD spot price following its predicted trajectory, with no sign that the model was being invalidated by short-term rumination below $60,000.
The incarnation of stock-to-flow used was stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), an updated version which places Bitcoin within the context of other macro assets and tracks its transformation into a new standard.
“My favorite chart for Situational Awareness,” PlanB wrote in comments.
“S2FX for rough long term level forecast (white line), combined with accurate on-chain bull/bear recognition signal (color overlay).”
S2FX calls for a $288,000 price tag by the end of 2021, this forming an average price in the current halving cycle which will complete in roughly April 2024. The price peak before then, by contrast, could be double the average or $576,000, PlanB has said.
Polkadot, Cosmos, Zcash Price Analysis: 14 April
On the back of a significant uptrend, Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, climbed from under $60,000 to over $64,500 in less than 48 hours. At press time, however, the crypto’s bullish momentum seemed to be exhausting itself, with corrections setting in and pulling the value of the larger crypto-market south. The same was evident when the price charts of alts such as Polkadot, Cosmos, and Zcash were taken into account.
It’s been just under two weeks since Polkadot, the market’s 7th-largest crypto, was trading at its ATH. While corrections soon followed, thanks to BTC’s latest foray above $60k, market bulls once again spurred the movement of DOT’s price action. In fact, over the last few trading sessions, DOT hiked by almost 10%.
At press time, however, corrections affecting the Bitcoin market were taking the toll on DOT too, with the alt losing value by the hour.
Whether these corrections will amount to a definite trend reversal, however, is a question that cannot be answered at this moment. While the Parabolic SAR’s dotted markers were well under the price candles and suggested bullishness, the Chaikin Money Flow was healthy, despite noting a dip to correspond with the alt’s price fortunes.
The project was in the news recently after Tether announced that it will be launching on Polkadot and Kusama.
Cosmos, the crypto ranked 31st on CoinMarketCap’s rankings, has had a good last few weeks, with the alt consistently registering higher lows on the back of a sustained uptrend. While ATOM hasn’t been a stranger to brief periods of depreciation, the last few days did see the alt surge by over 17.5% on the charts.
Like DOT, the last few hours did see ATOM correct, however, with the crypto trading over 8% away from its ATH.
While the mouth of the Bollinger Bands was widening at press time to point to some degree of incoming price volatility, the Awesome Oscillator pictured positive market momentum on the histogram, despite some bearish signals.
The development team behind the project activated the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol following a vote by members of the Cosmos ecosystem recently.
One of the crypto-market’s leading privacy coins, Zcash has been on a steady uptrend for the past week, with the same punctuated by a set of brief price falls. One of these periods of depreciation was underway at press time after BTC failed to assert itself above the $64,500-mark. That being said, ZEC was still up by almost 10% in just over 48 hours on the charts.
Zcash’s indicators were very ambivalent, however. The MACD line was diverging away from the Signal line following the brief possibility of a bullish crossover. Finally, the Relative Strength Index exhibited buyer’s strength, with the same very close to the overbought zone.
Zcash was in the news recently after the ECC announced Halo Arc for the “next generation of Zcash.”
Sign Up For Our Newsletter
Centurion Invest Launches Copy Trading System For CIEx Traders
Centurion Invest Exchange (CIEx) has launched its copy trading system for its traders. Notably, both novice and intermediate traders can use the new system to boost their earnings, especially in a volatile crypto market. Interested traders can manually copy trades from experienced traders and mutually benefit.
According to H.E. Ali Kassab, Chairman of Centurion Invest, the platform has 25 experienced traders to help cryptocurrency traders make informed and proper decisions.
“Cryptocurrencies are different from other asset types since the prices are volatile, making it much harder for junior traders and investors to establish proper investing strategies. Our copy trading service with over 25 expert traders onboard provides an immediate and convenient trading solution. CIEx novice traders can start trading with an immediate $100 bonus and instantly turn it into profit. As well as accessing the best copy trading feature on CIEx, including trade signals and guaranteed closing with profit, they can also opt for monthly secured income traded funds throughout our investment plans tailor-made for all users,” noted Kassab.
The company has set out a mechanism to incentivize traders who successfully participate in the copy trading system. Kassab further noted that the decentralized nature of the Centurion Invest copy trading platform enables traders to earn by both actively trading and through passive income. Vouching for the platform’s sustainability, Kassab noted that the developers made sure the new platform offers enhanced privacy and more robust security. “Depositing funds and accessing spot and futures trading are made effortless so that novice traders can gain confidence rapidly,” he explained.
By leveraging the power of blockchain technology and human expertise, Centurion Invest Exchange aims to help traders make more profit, especially from the ongoing rally.
In a bid to attract more customers to its platform, Centurion Invest has put in place different mechanisms. One, the company launched a referral program where anyone stands a chance to win bonuses from referring friends. Currently, the platform is running a limited offer to new customers who register an account with the exchange, whereby one stands a chance to win 100 USDT.
Notably, the company strategically launched its cryptocurrency wallet dubbed CI Wallet last month. The wallet provides key features such as Spot Trading, Futures, and Margins. For anyone interested in subscribing to the Centurion Invest Exchange services, the platform supports Visa, MasterCard, bank transfer, and also through top digital assets.
With Berlin looming, how is Ethereum’s price faring?
The 14th of April 2021 is a historic day for the crypto-community, with the Berlin ETH hard fork expected to go live, alongside a Coinbase IPO valued at over $100 billion. Ergo, it does not come as a surprise that altcoins in the top-25 are rallying, alongside Bitcoin’s run to its latest ATH on the charts.
A top metric that underlines how the current altcoin rally is in response to these two events is increased on-chain activity. For Ethereum, the top metric is the number of non-zero addresses, with the same climbing to touch a new ATH of 57 million recently, based on data from Glassnode.
Based on the attached chart, the number of non-zero addresses on the Ethereum network has increased consistently with the price and the trade volume. In addition to the number of non-zero addresses, there has been an increase in major activity and metrics on ETH’s network, just as it has been so on Bitcoin’s network.
As can be observed from the attached chart, despite a 63% correlation between ETH and BTC, on-chain activity has risen exponentially for both assets. The bullish sentiment among traders on top spot exchanges is visible in the Options market as well. ETH Option skews have been decidedly bullish with very little variability in Skew.
What’s more, the implied volatility is climbing steadily for ETH too. What these metrics highlight are a) The strong demand for Ethereum Options and, b) Large ETH call premiums were blocked in anticipation of the price rally post the hard fork.
And, it’s not just Ethereum. Besides ETH, top altcoins like ADA, XLM, LTC, and EOS are rallying in response to these updates and Ethereum’s price rally.
EOS’s trade volume, for instance, was up by nearly 50% in a 24-hour window, while the price was up by over 16%. One of the top EOS price drivers has been the fact that one of EOS’s top markets is Coinbase Pro.
Similar on-chain metric updates were noted for Cardano. On the back of two price rallies over the past month, Cardano’s price, at press time, was at a level where 100% of its HODLers are profitable. Similarly, in the case of XLM, the trade volume has been anticipated to increase since Bitcoin’s price rally gained steam. In fact, the trade volume was up by over 40%, with the price rallying with Ethereum. It is likely that the price rally driven by today’s events and Bitcoin’s run to its next ATH may leave the rally less than sustainable, however.
Sign Up For Our Newsletter
How NFTs, DeFi and Web 3.0 are intertwined
Altcoin Season 2021 Booming as BTC Dominance Hits 2-Year Low: The Weekly Crypto Recap
11% Of Business In Spain Use Blockchain Technology, Report
XRP Price Analysis: 10 April
Kava 5.1 Upgrade Aims to Improve Earnings for Bitcoin Lending
Has the rally ended for altcoins like LINK, ADA, and NPXS?
By The Numbers: The Rate Bitcoin Must Climb To Reach $100K By July
Coming this Sunday April 11th to New to the Street
Whole Earth Coin (WEC) Set for IEO to Inject New Life Into Aging Infrastructure
Bitcoin’s time has come: TIME magazine to hold BTC on balance sheet
Kraken Daily Market Report for April 09 2021
NYSE celebrates historic ‘first trades’ with NFT series
Enterprise-level partnerships send VeChain (VET) price to new highs
Watch these key technical levels as Bitcoin price nears $61,800 all-time high
Why this CEO argues against KYC norms for Bitcoin
SingularityNET (AGI) rallies 1,000% as industries aim to merge AI with blockchain
Uniswap, Monero, Ethereum Classic Price Analysis: 10 April
SEC approves Exodus wallet for Regulation A stock offering
Oasis Foundation announces implementation of Tidal DeFi insurance platform
Binance launches zero-commission tradable stock tokens
Blockchain7 days ago
Decentralized oracle solution Umbrella Network adds Huobi as validator node
Blockchain6 days ago
XRP Price Analysis: 08 April
Blockchain1 week ago
Uhive social network enables users to mint their profiles into NFTs
Blockchain6 days ago
Tesla’s landlord accepts crypto; will Elon Musk pay rent in Bitcoin?
Blockchain6 days ago
$48B Asset Manager Millennium Management Dabbles With Bitcoin
Blockchain6 days ago
Binance Smart Chain Daily Transactions 200% More Than Ethereum’s
Blockchain7 days ago
Why JP Morgan’s CEO calls Bitcoin regulation a “serious issue”
Blockchain6 days ago
Bitcoin Miners Hit Jackpot as Hash Rate Peaks Again