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Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Dormant Supply On The Move Again

On-chain data shows some dormant Bitcoin supply is again moving into exchanges, something that could be bearish for the price of the crypto. Bitcoin Exchange Inflow For Old Coins Has Observed Spikes In Recent Days As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, some coins in the age ranges 2y-3y and 3y-5y have recently been deposited to exchanges. The “exchange inflow” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin being transferred into the wallets of all centralized exchanges. When the value of this metric is high, it means investors are depositing large amounts to exchanges right now. Such a trend, when prolonged, can prove to be bearish for the value of the crypto as it can be a sign of dumping from holders. A modified version of this indicator is the exchange inflow “Spent Output Age Bands” (SOAB), which tells us about the individual contribution to the total inflows from the different supply groups in the market. Related Reading: Data: Bitcoin Whales Who Accumulated At $18k Have Continued To Hold Strong These cohorts are categorized based on the amount of time their coins have been sitting still for. The relevant age bands here are “2y-3y” and “3y-5y”; the below chart shows the trend in the exchange inflows coming from these supplies: Looks like the value of the metric for these cohorts has been raised in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin exchange inflow SOAB has spiked up for these coin groups during the last couple of days or so. This means that some investors have been depositing sizeable amounts of coins aged between 2 to 3 years and those between 3 to 5 years. Related Reading: This On-Chain Metric Suggests Bitcoin Not In Danger Of Another Sharp Drawdown Such old supply is called the “long-term holder” supply. In general, the older the coins are, the less probable they are to move at any point. So, any movement from these coins, especially those to exchanges, may have noticeable implications on the price of Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.1k, up 1% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 1% in value. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. The value of the crypto seems to have rebounded back from the dip a couple of days ago | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Bitcoin has continued to show stale price movement in the past week as the crypto has been mostly sticking around the $19k level. Two days or so ago BTC did make an attempt to break the monotony by plunging below to $18.7k, but it wasn’t long before the coin was back at $19k. Featured image from Max Saeling on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

USDC Inflow Spikes Up, Will It Act As Dry Powder For New Bitcoin Rally?

On-chain data shows the USDC exchange inflow has spiked up. Historically, stablecoins have provided dry powder for kicking off new Bitcoin rallies. USDC Exchange Inflow Sharply Rose To High Values Recently As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, almost one billion USDC has flowed into exchanges recently. Past pattern suggests this may lead to uptrend for Bitcoin. The “USD Coin exchange inflow” is an indicator that measures the total amount of the stablecoin entering wallets of all exchanges within a given period. When the value of this indicator moves up, it means investors are depositing a higher amount of coins at the moment. Usually, holders transfer stablecoins to exchanges for converting them into a volatile crypto, like Bitcoin. They may also withdraw the coins to fiat. Investors use stablecoins like USDC when they want to exit volatile markets and hold on until prices are favorable enough for re-entering them. This implies that high stablecoin exchange inflows may show that prices are once again good for re-entry. Related Reading | Bitcoin Trading Volume Has Now Stabilized At High Values, But For How Long? Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the USD Coin exchange inflows over the past year: Looks like the value of the metric has surged up to high values recently | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the USDC inflow has spiked up over the past few weeks. These inflows have amounted to around 1 billion coins. There were two other instances earlier during the period where similar values were also observed. Looking at the Bitcoin price curve in the same chart, it seems like some time following such large spikes in the indicator, the value of the crypto has always surged up as well. Related Reading | Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Has Now Reached An Equilibrium After 2 Years Of Downtrend This makes sense as many investors deposit the USDC for converting to BTC, so such inflows provide for a fresh supply of dry powder for sustaining a rally. Now it remains to be seen whether a similar effect on the price of Bitcoin will also be there this time, or if this USDC inflow will pump some other coins instead. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $39.2k, down 10% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 11% in value. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. BTC's price seems to have dropped down once again today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Yesterday, Bitcoin showed some sharp uptrend and broke above the $42k level again. However, today the coin looks to have plunged down once more. Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQaunt.com

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