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Price analysis 7/28: BTC, ETH, BNB, ADA, XRP, DOGE, DOT, UNI, BCH, LTC

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Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are attempting to break above their respective overhead resistance levels, indicating the return of the bulls.

Data from Bybt shows that the Grayscale premium has been climbing and reached -5.88% on July 27, its closest level to zero since May 25. This suggests that institutional investors may have again started building positions via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.

Another institutional investment product showing a possible return of buyers is Canada’s Purpose Bitcoin ETF whose assets under management rose to 1.1 billion Canadian dollars on July 27, its highest level since May 13.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Swiss private bank Vontobel said in its half-year financial report that its Bitcoin tracker certificate investment product had generated significant interest from clients. Vontobel CEO Zeno Staub said to Bloomberg that its wealthy clients have allocated a part of their wealth to cryptocurrencies.

Horizon Kinetics co-founder Peter Doyle also told the Financial Times that the world economy is at an inflection point because of the pandemic and mounting debt. This “means either default or currency debasement.” Therefore, Doyle said people should have exposure to cryptocurrencies.

With institutional interest returning to Bitcoin, could the rally continue or will bears again stall the recovery near overhead resistance levels? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin’s long wick on the July 26 candlestick shows that bears aggressively sold near $40,550 but the positive sign is that bulls flipped the $36,670 level into support on July 27. This indicates a possible change in sentiment from sell on rallies to buy on dips.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls pushed the price above $40,550 today but the wick on today’s candlestick suggests that bears have not yet surrendered. They will again try to stall the recovery in the overhead resistance zone at $41,330 to $42,451.67.

If the price turns down from the current level or the overhead zone, the BTC/USDT pair could again drop to $36,670. A strong bounce off this level will suggest that bulls are not waiting for a sharper dip to get in.

The pair could then consolidate between $36,670 and $42,451.67 for the next few days, improving the prospects of a break above the range. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the overbought zone, indicating that bulls are back in the game.

This positive view will invalidate if the price breaks below the moving averages. That will bring the large range between $42,451.67 and $28,805 into play.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) turned down from the downtrend line on July 26 but the bears could not sink and sustain the price below the moving averages. This suggests that bulls are buying on minor dips.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages are close to completing a bullish crossover and the RSI has risen into the positive zone, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If bulls drive the price above the downtrend line, the momentum may pick up. That could open the doors for a possible rally to $3,000.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and dips below the moving averages, the ETH/USDT pair could gradually drop to the critical support at $1,728.74.

BNB/USDT

The long wick on the July 26 candlestick suggests that bears sold at higher levels. They attempted to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling Binance Coin (BNB) back below the downtrend line but the buyers did not relent.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls defended the 20-day exponential moving average ($304) on July 27 and are attempting to push the price above the 50-day simple moving average ($312) today. If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $340.

A breakout and close above $340 will clear the path for a possible rally to $400 and then to $433. This positive view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA. Such a move could result in a fall to $254.52.

ADA/USDT

The long wick on Cardano’s (ADA) July 26 candlestick suggests that traders are selling on rallies. The bears tried to pull and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($1.25) on July 27 but failed, indicating buying at lower levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This may have reinvigorated the buyers who are again trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($1.33). If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could gradually rise to $1.50. This level may pose a stiff challenge for buyers but if they can overcome it, the pair could start its northward journey toward $1.94.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and slides below $1.20, it will indicate that bears continue to sell at every higher level. That may result in a retest of the critical support at $1.

XRP/USDT

Although bears successfully defended the 50-day SMA ($0.67) on July 26, they could not pull XRP back below the 20-day EMA ($0.62). This suggests that bulls are accumulating on dips.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Sustained buying from the bulls today has pushed the XRP/USDT pair above the 50-day SMA for the first time since May 19. If buyers can clear the hurdle at $0.75, the pair will complete a double bottom pattern. This setup has a target objective at $1.

The 20-day EMA is attempting to turn up and the RSI has risen above 62, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $0.75, the bears will again try to sink the price below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair may extend its consolidation between $0.50 and $0.75 for a few more days.

DOGE/USDT

The long wick on Dogecoin’s (DOGE) July 26 candlestick suggests that bears are defending the 50-day SMA ($0.23) aggressively. The sellers attempted to sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.20) on July 27 but failed.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This suggests that buyers have not given up and will make one more attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could start a relief rally that may reach $0.28 and then $0.33.

On the contrary, if the price again turns down from the 50-day SMA, several short-term traders may close their position. That could result in a break below the 20-day EMA, which may clear the path for a decline to $0.15.

DOT/USDT

The bears attempted to sink Polkadot (DOT) below the $13 support on July 27 but failed, which suggests that bulls are accumulating at lower levels.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will now try to push the price toward the overhead resistance at $16.93. This level may again act as stiff resistance but the flat 20-day EMA ($13.95) and the RSI near the midpoint suggest that sellers may be losing their grip.

If bulls do not allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA during the next correction, the prospects of a break above $16.93 will improve. That could signal the start of a sustained relief rally to $20 and later to $26.50.

This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $13. That could result in a retest of $10.37.

UNI/USDT

Uniswap (UNI) turned down from the downtrend line on July 26, indicating that bears are aggressively defending this resistance. Although the price broke below the 20-day EMA ($18.25) on July 27, the bulls bought this dip.

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will now again attempt to push the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed, it will invalidate the developing bearish descending triangle pattern. The failure of a bearish setup is a bullish sign as aggressive bears are forced to cover their short positions.

That could open the doors for a possible rally to $24 and then to the critical overhead resistance at $30. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and plummets below $17.24, the UNI/USDT pair could start its downward journey toward $13.

Related: Ethereum pares gains, Bitcoin pushed under $40K as Fed set to reveal tapering plans

BCH/USDT

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($504) on July 26 but the bulls defended the 20-day EMA ($471) on July 27. This suggests a tough tussle between the bulls and the bears.

BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating that bulls are attempting to make a comeback. A breakout and close above $546.83 will signal the start of a sustained relief rally as the BCH/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern.

This up-move could face stiff resistance at $650.35 but if crossed, the rally could reach the pattern target at $710.13. Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could extend its range-bound action for a few more days.

LTC/USDT

Litecoin (LTC) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($138) on July 26 but the positive sign is that bulls did not allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($128).

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are likely to mount a stiff resistance in the overhead zone between the 50-day SMA and $146.54. If the price turns down from this zone and slips below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.

On the other hand, if bulls drive the price above $146.54, the LTC/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective of $189.25. The RSI above 57 and the flat 20-day EMA points to a marginal advantage to buyers.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.


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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-7-28-btc-eth-bnb-ada-xrp-doge-dot-uni-bch-ltc

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DeFi: Who, what and how to regulate in a borderless, code-governed world?

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Hold onto your hats, boys and girls! It’s a new world — a financial system without intermediaries, that anyone can access 24 hours a day with only a mobile phone and a wallet! As Julien Bouteloup said to me: 

“In DeFi, what we are building is fully decentralised technology, fully transparent, run by mathematics. No one can beat that.”

He continued: “We are building on research papers, 40 years of research, fundamental research, discrete mathematics being built and put on-chain that no one can beat. You cannot beat that. GitHub didn’t exist in the ‘90s. First, the fact that we’re going at the speed of light, is because everything is open source, and everyone can participate.”

Related: DeFi literacy: Universities embrace decentralized finance education

A Novum Insights report stated back in August that since 2020, the DeFi market has grown by a factor 40, with the total value locked in DeFi at around $61 billion at the time (while the current TVL stands at around $165 billion). Stablecoins’ capitalization, an important part of DeFi, grew in the first half of 2021 to $112 billion.

Massive gains are being made but, at the same time, DeFi investors are also losing money because DeFi is not regulated, moderated, intermediated, hosted or validated by a central authority, only driven by smart contracts. So if a smart contract fails or is attacked, consumers have no remedy. Loretta Joseph, global digital asset regulatory expert, said to me: “Regulators protect consumers and investors. In DeFi, you don’t have any intermediaries to regulate, so it’s totally P2P. The question is how it will be regulated in the future. People are going to get scammed. When people start to get scammed, the first thing they do is complain to the regulator.”

Related: Will regulation adapt to crypto, or crypto to regulation? Experts answer

Indeed, since 2019, DeFi protocols have lost about $285 million to hacks and other exploit attacks. And as the experts stated, the majority of hacks were due to developer incompetence and coding mistakes. That’s significant when the sector is entirely reliant on the code.

Related: The radical need for updating blockchain security protocols

The challenges of regulation

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Hester Peirce said in an interview with Forkast.News about DeFi back in February: “It’s going to be challenging to us because most of the way we regulate is through intermediaries, and when you really build something that’s decentralized, there’s no intermediary. It’s great for resilience of a system. But it’s much harder for us when we’re trying to go in and regulate to figure out how to do that.”

Regulatory concerns tend to be around the volatility of crypto markets as contrasted with government-backed fiat currency, the risk of money laundering and terrorist financing, the unregulated nature of the market, and the absence of recourse for financial losses. Nonfungible tokens are exploding, generating excitement, confusion, legal questions and massive gains. NFT markets are also attracting large crypto transactions, which will likely bother regulators, who may see the big money moves in NFTs as money laundering. At a macro level, the decentralization of the financial system and the ability to manage economic stability and protect consumer interests poses a further challenge to regulators.

Related: Nonfungible tokens from a legal perspective

DeFi decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are popular as a means of transferring cryptocurrencies across different blockchains. This supports crypto lending and yield farming. DAOs, by conservative estimates, oversee more than $543 million. In a DAO, information technology governance and corporate governance are one and the same. The organization is governed and operated by smart contracts, which are monitored and enforced by algorithms. The code both governs and executes. Should the algorithms fail, who then is responsible?

In a joint article, dubbed “Regulating Blockchain, DLT and Smart Contracts: a technology regulator’s perspective,” a group of researchers outline some key points to consider: (1) the importance of identifying central points which can be used to apply regulation to, such as miners, core software developers, end users. They even raise the potential for governmental or regulatory players to be potential participants; (2) issues of identifying liability — could core software developers be held to account?; (3) the challenges with the immutability and lack of update-ability of smart contracts; and (4) the need for quality assurance and technology audit processes.

It is expected that exchanges and wallet providers will be a focus for regulators. Decentralized exchanges allow users to trade directly from their wallets in a P2P manner without intermediaries. Global money-laundering watchdog the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has exchanges in their sights. Christopher Harding, the chief compliance officer of Civic, noted that the FATF proposed guidelines which suggest that DApps will need to comply with country-specific laws enforcing FATF, AML, and Counter-Terrorism Financing requirements.

Related: FATF draft guidance targets DeFi with compliance

A recent review of 16 leading exchange platforms by the London School of Economics and Political Science found that just four were subject to a significant level of regulation related to trading, so there is a clear gap. Getting listed on any major exchange now requires a project to have passed auditing, but meaningful security doesn’t end there. Toby Lewis, CEO of Novum Insights, made the point:

“Also, remember that smart contracts can be attacked. Even if they are audited, it does not give you a guarantee that it will be exploit-free. Do your own research before you start.”

In an open-source environment where projects are developing at an average compound growth rate of 20% per year, finding just the right moment to regulate, wherein people are protected from risk but innovation is not constrained, is a classic problem to solve. Some governments have addressed achieving this balance by using regulatory sandboxes (U.K., Bermuda, India, South Korea, Mauritius, Australia, Papua New Guinea and Singapore), while some have gone straight to legislating (San Marino, Bermuda, Malta, Liechtenstein).

Far from resisting regulation, leading DeFi figures embrace it as part of the maturing of the industry. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Stani Kulechov, the founder of DeFi lending platform Aave, suggests that peer review will be the future: “Auditors are not here to guarantee the security of a protocol, merely they help to spot something that the team itself wasn’t aware of. Eventually it’s about peer review and we need to find as a community incentives to empower more security experts into the space.” In the same article, Emeliano Bonassi spoke about ReviewsDAO, a peer review forum for connecting security experts with projects looking for reviews. Bonassi sees potential for this to become a learning opportunity where people with specialized knowledge can contribute to improving the security of the ecosystem.

Tan Tran, CEO of Vemanti Group, suggested: “Going forward, I do see accelerated adoption of platforms with permissionless financial products and services that can be used by anyone anywhere, but each will be governed by a regulated-party with centralized control to ensure accountability and compliance. This is not about stopping innovation. It’s more about deterring bad actors from exploiting unsophisticated consumers.” Giving an expert opinion on DeFi to Cointelegraph, Brendan Blumer, CEO of Block.one, concluded: “The real winners in the digital economy will be those that think long-term and take the time to ensure their products meet jurisdictional and professional service requirements.”

It certainly looks like exchanges and software developers could be in the sights of regulators. We anticipate regulators will look for ways to improve technology quality assurance processes and DeFi governance, which can only be done in conjunction with the industry. Mark Taylor emphasized that regulators need to continue to work in partnership with crypto industry players to protect consumers.

Julien Bouteluop explained: “We are actually building, in DeFi, everything that traditional finance has, but faster, stronger, more transparent and accessible by everyone that’s here. It’s really different. It means that anyone in the world can access technology and doesn’t need to ask permission from anyone. I think it’s necessary to push for innovation, and to build a better world.”

Who, what and how do we regulate in this global 24/7, borderless market? This is a whole new ball game. Regulators and industry will need to work hand in hand.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Jane Thomason is a thought leader on blockchain for social impact. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Queensland. She has had multiple roles with the British Blockchain & Frontier Technologies Association, the Kerala Blockchain Academy, the Africa Blockchain Center, the UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, Frontiers in Blockchain, and Fintech Diversity Radar. She has written multiple books and articles on Blockchain. She has been featured in Crypto Curry Club’s Top 100 Women in Crypto, the Decade of Women Collaboratory’s Top 10 Digital Frontier Women, Lattice’s Top 100 Fintech Influencers for SDGs, and Thinkers360’s Top 50 Global Thought Leaders and Influencers on Blockchain.


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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/defi-who-what-and-how-to-regulate-in-a-borderless-code-governed-world

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Deutsche Bank’s analyst says bitcoin will be ‘ultra violate,’ but it is here to stay.

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Marion Laboure, an analyst at Deutsche Bank’s research division, said she could envision Bitcoin taking the role of digital gold in the future: lasting for centuries and largely not controlled by the government. Laboure said she could “potentially see Bitcoin become the 21st-century digital gold” but warned investors against the crypto asset’s volatility. According to the analyst, most Bitcoin (BTC) purchases are made for investments and speculation rather than keeping the coins for a medium of exchange. 

The analyst expects Bitcoin to remain ultra-volatile in the foreseeable future.

“Just a few additional large purchases or market exits can significantly impact the supply-demand equilibrium,” said Laboure. “Bitcoin is too volatile to be a reliable store of value today. And I expect it to remain ultra-volatile in the foreseeable future,” the analyst noted. Though the Deutsche Bank analyst expressed concern about the lack of regulation over cryptocurrencies and their potential impact on the environment, she hinted that Bitcoin would likely remain the dominant cryptocurrency in the crypto space. 

“If Bitcoin is sometimes called ‘digital gold,’ Ethereum would then be the ‘digital silver.”

Ethereum may have more use cases in decentralized finance and with the rise in non-fungible tokens, but Bitcoin still enjoys its “first-mover advantage.” “If Bitcoin is sometimes called ‘digital gold,’ Ethereum would then be the ‘digital silver,” the analyst opined. Earlier, Deutsche Bank analysts described Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency “too important to ignore, ” suggesting that the crypto asset price would likely rise with additional asset managers and companies entering the market. In 2019, the financial institution predicted that digital currencies would replace fiat by 2030.

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Source: https://coinnounce.com/deutsche-banks-analyst-says-bitcoin-will-be-ultra-violate-but-it-is-here-to-stay/

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Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX registers in Bahamas as Hong Kong regulations turn hostile

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Earlier this week, crypto exchange FTX announced they successfully registered with the Securities Commission of the Bahamas as a digital assets business under the Digital Asset Registered Exchanges (DAREs) Bill.

Previously, FTX was headquartered in Hong Kong and was so since its inception in 2019, following CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s move there in 2018.

However, for digital asset companies based in the former British colony, an increasingly hostile stance towards crypto is forcing many to look elsewhere.

While neither FTX nor its representatives have gone on record to state this explicitly, others have come forward to describe a regime that is moving against cryptocurrency.

In June, Bankman-Fried chose to vent his frustrations with living in Hong Kong over its tough quarantine rules. There was no mention of anti-crypto sentiment within his tweetstorm.

The writing was on the wall for FTX

The FT states that Hong Kong is losing its position as an international business hub due to China’s tightening grip on the region.

“Beijing’s imposition of a national security law last year has prompted many multinational companies to rethink their commitment to the Chinese territory.”

On how that impacts doing business as a crypto company, the FTX boss said he’s aware that Hong Kong is bringing legislation that will require all exchanges operating there to be licensed.

It’s rumored that the upshot to this could see only wealthy professional traders allowed to participate in crypto trading. Which, if true, violates the primary purpose of cryptocurrency – that is, being open to all.

In July, Bankman-Fried said a ban on retail investors would force FTX to leave Hong Kong. While that hasn’t happened yet, his referral to Hong Kong in the past tense was telling in so far as him wanting to leave.

“I’ve loved my time here . . . but in the end, what’s important is that we’re in the right place for the business.”

A brief history of Hong Kong

The British annexed Hong Kong as an indemnity for fighting the Opium Wars as agreed under the Treaty of Nanjing.

They subsequently built infrastructure and brought free-market policies, which allowed the region to flourish, especially during the 1970s. Due to low levels of government inference, doing business in Hong Kong was easy, and the region became a gateway into Asia.

But in 1984, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang signed an agreement to return Hong Kong to China on July 1, 1997. A condition of the agreement was the Chinese guaranteeing a 50-year extension on the existing legal framework.

Meaning 2047 should have been when Hong Kong finally reverted to full mainland control.

But as evidenced by enforcement of the national security law, which effectively put the region under martial law as a response to protests, Beijing has reneged on that agreement.

It’s well known that Beijing takes a negative view of cryptocurrency trading and mining. With that, it’s surprising FTX didn’t move sooner.

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Source: https://cryptoslate.com/sam-bankman-frieds-ftx-registers-in-bahamas-as-hong-kong-regulations-turn-hostile/

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