Aggressive buying by institutional investors is one of the main reasons for the current Bitcoin (BTC) bull run. Some investors expressed their intent to hold their positions for a few years, but it is also prudent to note that many of these investors have recently developed a love for Bitcoin and their conviction to HODL may not resemble that of the early Bitcoin whales.
The current bull market could also differ from the last as institutional investors simply cannot hold on to their positions if Bitcoin unexpectedly enters a sharp correction. These fund managers will have to face angry clients if Bitcoin’s performance wanes, thus it’s important to keep a level head when considering the lofty price estimates being thrown out by analysts.
Bitpay’s chief commercial officer Sonny Singh said in an interview with Bloomberg that if Bitcoin’s rally continues, the institutional investors may be tempted to lock in their gains and are unlikely to HODL for the long term.
If that happens, the markets may have to deal with a huge amount of selling, which could result in a sharp fall unless new institutional investors or long-term Bitcoin whales step in and buy.
A few metrics such as rising futures open interest and a high funding rate suggest that traders are taking aggressive bullish bets on Bitcoin’s rally continuing. As has occurred in the past, a sharp downturn in Bitcoin price could result in leveraged players facing a massive long liquidation.
Therefore, it only makes sense that at this juncture, traders exercise caution and use proper money management principles to protect their paper profits.
While Bitcoin’s rally toward $36,000 may have slowed down, several altcoins are skyrocketing. Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to determine the possible target levels on the upside.
The long tails on the Jan. 4 and 5 candlesticks suggest that the bears tried to start a correction but the bulls aggressively purchased the dips. Bitcoin has resumed the uptrend today by pushing the price above the previous all-time high at $34,786.04.
The next target objective on the upside is $37,000 and if that level is scaled, the BTC/USD pair could rise to $45,000.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) remains in overbought territory indicating the risk of a correction. The first support on the downside is the 20-day exponential moving average ($28,213).
If the pair rebounds off this support, it will suggest that traders continue to buy the dips and that could keep the uptrend intact.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it could result in panic selling that could sink the pair to the 50-day simple moving average ($22,285).
Ether (ETH) has resumed the uptrend today as the bulls have pushed the price above the Jan. 4 intraday high at $1,156.456. However, the RSI above 88 suggests that the biggest altcoin is overbought in the short term.
If the price does not sustain above $1,156.456, the ETH/USD pair could consolidate in a tight range for a few days before attempting the next trending move.
Conversely, if the pair sustains above $1,156.456, it will suggest that the melt-up is likely to continue. In such a case, the pair may rally to $1,260 and then to $1,420.
The pair will signal a possible change in trend if the price turns down and plummets below the $840.93 support.
While most major altcoins have been surging, XRP has been languishing near its recent lows, suggesting that traders are not aggressively buying at the current levels.
The consolidation also suggests that the bears are taking it easy. This lack of interest from the bulls and the bears could extend the range-bound action for a few more days.
The next leg of the down move could start if the bears sink the price below the $0.169 support. Such a move could trigger panic selling that may result in a decline to $0.10.
On the contrary, a break above the 20-day EMA ($0.30) will be the first sign of strength and the recovery could pick up steam above $0.385.
After the large range day on Jan. 4, Litecoin (LTC) formed an inside day candlestick pattern on Jan. 5, which showed indecision among the bulls and the bears. The uncertainty has resolved to the upside and the bulls are currently attempting to resume the uptrend.
If the bulls can propel the price above $173.3312, the LTC/USD pair could rally to $180 and then to $200.
However, if the price turns down from $173.3312, then the pair could drop to $140 and remain range-bound between these two levels for a few days.
A breakdown below the $140 support and the 20-day EMA ($130) may shift the advantage in favor of the bears.
Cardano (ADA) is currently in a strong uptrend that has a target objective of $0.40. If this level is scaled, the altcoin could even rally to $0.50. However, the sharp rally since Jan. 3 has pushed the RSI deep into the overbought territory.
History suggests that whenever the RSI rises above 80, the ADA/USD pair has witnessed a minor correction or consolidation. Therefore, traders may prepare for a minor pullback in the next few days.
If the bulls do not give up much ground and the pair rebounds off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2757469, it will suggest that traders are not booking profits in a hurry. The bulls could then attempt to resume the uptrend.
Conversely, if the bears pull the price below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2552813, it will suggest aggressive profit booking at higher levels and such a move could deepen the correction or keep the pair range-bound for a few days.
Polkadot (DOT) recovered from $8.70 on Jan. 4, just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $8.4507. This shallow correction suggests traders are aggressively buying on every minor dip.
If the bulls can thrust the price above $10.5169, the DOT/USD pair could pick up momentum and rally to $12.39 and then to $15.
However, if the price turns down from $10.5169, the pair may drop to $8.70 and remain range-bound between these two levels for a few days. A consolidation near the overhead resistance is a positive sign and increases the possibility of the resumption of the uptrend.
This positive view will invalidate if the bears sink the price below $8.70. Such a move could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA ($7.59).
The bulls did not allow Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to plummet back below the $370 breakout level on Jan. 4 and 5. This shows accumulation by traders at lower levels. The bulls are currently attempting to resume the uptrend.
If the bulls can push the price above $467.67, the BCH/USD pair may rally to the stiff overhead resistance at $515.35.
The previous two rallies had reversed direction from the $497 to $515.35 resistance zone. Thus this zone is likely to attract aggressive selling by the bears.
However, if the bulls can absorb the selling and drive the price above $515.35, it may signal the start of a new bull run.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from $467.67, the pair may consolidate between $370 and $467.67 for a few days.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) has picked up momentum in the past three days. The altcoin broke above the descending channel on Jan. 05 and soared today, pushing the price above the $0.35 overhead resistance.
However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests profit booking above $0.35. The bears will now try to pull the price back below $0.2864. If they succeed, the XLM/USD pair may enter a minor correction.
Conversely, if the bulls flip $0.2864 to support, the pair may resume its uptrend. If the price breaks above $0.391, the rally could extend to $0.50.
Chainlink (LINK) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($13) on Jan. 4 and the 50-day SMA ($13.07) on Jan. 5, which shows strong buying on dips. The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, suggesting buyers are in control.
If the bulls can sustain the LINK/USD pair above $16.39, the rally could extend to $20.1111. The bears are likely to defend this resistance aggressively.
However, if the bulls do not give up much ground, the possibility of a break above $20.1111 increases and the next target objective on the upside is $25.
This bullish view will invalidate if the price turns down from the current levels or the overhead resistance and breaks below the $13.28 support. Such a move will suggest a lack of demand at higher levels.
Binance Coin (BNB) made a long-legged Doji candlestick pattern on Jan. 4 and followed it up with an inside day candlestick pattern on Jan. 5 that had a long tail. This suggests that the bears tried to pull the price down but the bulls purchased at lower levels.
If buyers can drive the price above $43.2039, the BNB/USD pair may resume the uptrend and rally to $50. The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the overbought territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
On the other hand, if the pair again turns down from the overhead resistance level and breaks below $38, it will suggest that the bears have overpowered the bulls. That could result in a correction to $32.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
Binance Coin, Dash, Synthetix Price Analysis: 17 January
Binance Coin looked to revisit $38.72 as the price failed to hold up above its present resistance. Dash formed a symmetrical triangle on the charts and presented the possibility of a breakout above $135.69 resistance while SNX reversed course and fell by over 12% after hitting record levels.
Binance Coin [BNB]
Binance Coin retested $41.8 and moved lower as the bulls failed to lift prices towards $44.82 resistance. Prices could revisit the $38.72 support if the fall continues over the next few trading sessions. If the price rises, that would present an upside of $44.82. However, indicators favored the bears and suggested that a move towards immediate support could be a likely outcome.
The MACD was on the verge of a bearish crossover as the signal line eyed a move above the fast-moving line.
The Awesome Oscillator agreed with the MACD and indicated that momentum was shifting towards the bears.
Dash flashed red at press time, as prices traded at $121.84, down by 3.87% in the past 24 hours. A look at the 4hr chart showed that the price had formed a symmetrical triangle, and a breakout could be witnessed over the next few trading sessions. A bullish outcome could see the coin’s trading price rise above its immediate resistance and target a move above the next resistance at $135.69. On the flip side, a downward breakout could see the coin move below support $113.1.
The Stochastic RSI moved in the oversold territory and signaled a potential pullback if the index reverses direction.
The Parabolic SAR’s dotted markers were below the candlesticks and indicated that the price action was in an uptrend.
Synthetix hit an all-time high of $17.24 but immediately dropped by over 12% in the last few trading sessions. For now, losses were cut short at $14.63 support, but a fall below the present defense would confirm a bearish pullback.
The Relative Strength Index pointed downwards from the neutral zone. If the index moves into the oversold region, the price could follow suit and drop towards $13.41 support.
The MACD witnessed a bearish crossover as the price fell from record levels. The red bars on the histogram suggested the likelihood of a further pullback in prices.
Former Ripple CTO may have lost much more than $220M in Bitcoin
David Schwartz, current chief technical officer at Ripple, is responding to reports his predecessor had lost access to hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin.
In a Quora post on Thursday, Schwartz said recent reports about former Ripple CTO Stefan Thomas forgetting the password to an encrypted hard drive containing thousands of Bitcoin (BTC) were true, but added Thomas had also lost access to hundreds of coins when the crypto asset was young.
“He would create unspent outputs with ‘1.0’ Bitcoin because that was the fastest and easiest number to type,” said Schwartz. “He likely created hundreds of such accounts, none of which he retained the keys for because they were just for quick experiments. Each of those accounts is worth $38,000 or so today.”
Even just one hundred of these accounts at 100 BTC would mean the coins within are worth more than $3 million. The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $30,000 and $40,000 since reaching an all-time of more than $42,000 on Jan. 8.
Last week, a New York Times profile on Thomas said that the German-born programmer has used eight out of ten attempts to guess the password to access an encrypted hard drive containing 7,002 BTC. He has only two guesses left on the IronKey hard drive before the data — and funds — are seemingly lost.
Schwartz confirmed the story on Quora, saying Thomas had put aside the coins, which were part of a payment for creating a video. However, he questioned the $200+ million figure cited by major news outlets:
“I believe today [Thomas’ Bitcoin is] worth about $114 million. I’m not sure where the $240 million number is coming from — maybe I’m remembering wrong.”
There are many similar stories of long lost Bitcoin from early in the coin’s development. Last week, Cointelegraph reported that a student had found private keys to access more than $4 million worth of Bitcoin at his grandfather’s house over the holidays.
Monero Price Analysis: 17 January
Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice
The Monero market has been descending over the past couple of days. The overall trend in the market has not been actively bullish, and for Monero the trend has turned to a bearish one. As the price climbed down the price ladder, the market may witness more bearishness.
At the time of writing the price of Monero was $152.24.
Monero daily chart
The Monero chart has been showing that the price has been dropping after it hit the resistance at $170.89. This retracement has been currently testing the support at $151, and the price has been witnessing a strong downward pressure.
As the value of the digital asset continued to see a push and pull at the level, it may force the price to sink further down to the second support at $146. This would be an opportunity for traders to make a profit.
The 50 moving average has already been spiking above the candlesticks highlighting the downtrend of the coin. The RSI has moved closer to the overbought zone from the equilibrium zone, which suggested that the sellers in the market were growing.
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator was noting a rise in bearishness in the market. The strong red bars were growing and have continued in the market for a few days now. Whereas, the MACD line although under the signal line for a couple of days now, was witnessing its gap grow.
The current market conditions indicated an increased bearishness in Monero’s price action. As the digital asset trades close to the support, and if it ends up breaching it, the coin’s price is likely to drop to the next level of support at $146 which will, in turn, provide only a minimal profit to the short traders.
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