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Pantera Capital CEO: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $115k after Halving

Quick take: Bitcoin (BTC) has once again reclaimed $9,000 with 5 days until halving.  Pantera Capital’s CEO, Dan Morehead, sees a scenario where BTC hits $115,212 by August 2021.  His analysis is based on the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving.  The hype and excitement surrounding the Bitcoin halving event is once again evident in the current price of BTC. At the time of writing this, Bitcoin has just broken both the $9,000 and $9,100 resistance levels and […]

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Quick take:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) has once again reclaimed $9,000 with 5 days until halving. 
  • Pantera Capital’s CEO, Dan Morehead, sees a scenario where BTC hits $115,212 by August 2021. 
  • His analysis is based on the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. 

The hype and excitement surrounding the Bitcoin halving event is once again evident in the current price of BTC. At the time of writing this, Bitcoin has just broken both the $9,000 and $9,100 resistance levels and is trading at $9,261 with 5 days until halving. A brief analysis of the BTC/USDT 6-hour chart reveals that there is renewed buying interest as we draw closer to the estimated halving date of May 12th.

Pantera Capital CEO: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $115k after Halving 14
6-Hour BTC/USDT chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Pantera Capital CEO Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $115k After Halving

With the Bitcoin halving only days away, Pantera Capital CEO, Dan Morehead, has predicted that BTC could hit $115,212 by August of 2021. His analysis is based on the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. Mr. Morehead made this predication via twitter and further elaborated on his analysis via an informative Medium blog post. His tweet can be found below.

Further highlighting key points from his Medium post, Mr. Morehead explained how a reduction in supply of BTC after each halving, will impact the price of Bitcoin.

One potential framework for analyzing the impact of halvings is to study the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. The first halving reduced the supply by 15% of the total outstanding bitcoins. That’s a huge impact on supply and it had a huge impact on price.

Each subsequent halving’s impact on price will likely taper off in importance as the ratio of reduction in supply from previous halvings to the next decreases.

Furthermore, his analysis went on to elaborate on the impact each halving has had on the price of Bitcoin.

The second having decreased supply only one-third as much as the first. Very interestingly, it had exactly one-third the price impact.

Extrapolating this relationship to 2020:

The reduction in supply is only 40% as great as in 2016. If this relationship holds, that would imply about 40% as much price impulse — bitcoin would peak at $115,212 /BTC.

Pantera Capital CEO: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Hit $115k after Halving 15
Image courtesy of Pantera Capital on Medium.com

What is Stock-to-Flow Ratio?

The Stock-to-flow ratio is a measure traditionally used to gauge the abundance of commodities. It is calculated by dividing the amount of a commodity held in inventories, by the amount being produced annually.

In the case of Bitcoin, it is calculated by dividing the currently known supply of Bitcoin by the BTC mined annually. At the time of writing this, there is approximately 18.365 Bitcoin already mined with an annual production of 657,000 BTC per year. This results in a Stock-to-flow ratio of 27.9.

(Feature image courtesy of Unsplash.)

Disclaimer: This article is not meant to give financial advice. Any additional opinion herein is purely the author’s and does not represent the opinion of Ethereum World News or any of its other writers. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the numerous cryptocurrencies available. Thank you.

Source: https://ethereumworldnews.com/pantera-capital-ceo-bitcoin-btc-could-hit-115k-after-halving/

Blockchain

JP Morgan: Put 1% In Bitcoin as a Hedge as Demand is ‘Massively Outstripping’ Supply

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The narrative that investors should allocate 1% of their portfolio in bitcoin as a hedge has received support from strategists representing the giant US multinational investment bank – JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The analysts also highlighted the evaporating liquid supply, as giant institutions and corporations are purchasing substantial quantities rather rapidly.

JPM Suggest: Put 1% in BTC

Among the most popular topics of discussion within the community is how big should be the percentage investors allocate to bitcoin. The narrative ranges from BTC maximalists saying that all eggs should be in one bitcoin basket to others advocating for a broader diversification.

However, very few outsiders of the crypto community had ever suggested any BTC exposure until last year. Perhaps the first one to go public with it was the legendary legacy investor Paul Tudor Jones III following the COVID-19-induced market crash.

Since then, more representatives of the traditional financial field have joined, and the latest ones are strategists from JPMorgan.

Cited by Bloomberg, they seemed somewhat cautious but still indicated that investors should look into BTC for a possible hedge.

“In a multi-asset portfolio, investors can likely add up to 1% of their allocation to cryptocurrencies in order to achieve any efficiency gain in the overall risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio.”

However, the analysts advised investors to explore other fiat currencies, such as the yen or the dollar, if they want to hedge a macro event and not cryptocurrencies as they are “investment vehicles and not funding currencies.”

BTC’s Declining Liquid Supply

JPM also touched upon another compelling topic, which has surged in popularity in the past several months – BTC’s decreasing liquid supply.

After all, numerous giant names joined the BTC craze since the summer of 2020. As of now, MicroStrategy owns over 90,000 bitcoins, Grayscale is purchasing new coins at record levels, Tesla allocated $1.5 billion in the asset, and numerous institutions bought in as well.

Simultaneously, the production rate of newly-created bitcoins was slashed in half in May 2020 following the third-ever halving. Consequently, the skyrocketing demand and the decreasing liquid supply affected the asset price, which is up by 50% since the start of the year – even after the latest massive correction.

“Through the insatiable buy-side pressure from exchange-traded fund issuers, close-ended funds, and large public corporations adding Bitcoin to their positions, demand is massively outstripping supply.” – concluded JPM’s strategists.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/jp-morgan-put-1-in-bitcoin-as-a-hedge-as-demand-is-massively-outstripping-supply/

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Monero, Ontology, Synthetix Price Analysis: 26 February

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Monero was treading water around the $200-level, with the crypto likely to give way to a wave of selling pressure. Ontology fell under multiple levels of former support over the last few days and could break past one or two more. Finally, Synthetix saw a region of demand flipped to one of supply.

Monero [XMR]

Monero, Ontology, Synthetix Price Analysis: 26 February

Source: XMR/USDT on TradingView

The RSI fell below 50 and tested it as resistance on the hourly chart after XMR’s bulls attempted to keep the price above $200. This could be an uphill battle, especially if Bitcoin continues to drop.

Over the next few days, $220 and $180 are the levels to watch out for. Climbing above $220 would imply that a recovery has begun for XMR, while dropping below its previous local low of $180 would see XMR shed value further.

The Stochastic RSI was recovering from oversold territory over the past few hours. The trading volume rose as the price fell, pointing to the fact that strong bearish market sentiment was still in play.

Ontology [ONT]

Monero, Ontology, Synthetix Price Analysis: 26 February

Source: ONT/USDT on TradingView

The Directional Movement Index showed a strong bearish trend was in progress as the ADX (yellow) rose above 20 alongside the -DI (pink). The Awesome Oscillator also underlined southbound market momentum.

The next levels of interest for ONT were the $0.75 and the $0.68-support levels. A sign of some strength from the bears, such as a double top, would be required before any coin can be considered to be on the road to recovery.

Synthetix [SNX]

Monero, Ontology, Synthetix Price Analysis: 26 February

Source: SNX/USDT on TradingView

On the hourly chart, the fractals were used to give some further importance to the points that formed the descending channel’s boundaries. As can be seen, SNX closed a trading session under the channel and rose to retest the $18-region as one of supply, formerly demand.

Having confirmed this dip, the market’s bears forced the price lower. The next levels of support for SNX lay at $16 and $14, both representing drops of 10% and 21% from where the price was trading, at the time of writing.

The MACD noted strong bearish momentum, as did the 8-period and 20-period exponential moving averages (blue and white respectively).


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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/monero-ontology-synthetix-price-analysis-26-february

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This Bitcoin metric may be key to Gold’s flippening in the future

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was falling again, with the cryptocurrency’s performance breaking from its rangebound behavior between $49,000 and $51,000 yesterday. And yet, despite the scale of the drop, many still expected recovery to come soon enough. In fact, a few signs were visible just before BTC’s latest fall below $47,000.

Consider this – At the time, the volatility was up to 16%, rising by 2% post the dip from its ATH of $58,330. While it’s almost given that Bitcoin will soon bounce back, it’s worth examining what will drive such recovery. On CMC’s latest podcast, Jeff Ross of Vailshire Cap spoke about the prevailing narrative during this market cycle. According to him, the narrative of Gold 2.0 is the one that is playing out.

Gold has been repeatedly mentioned in popular narratives since the flippening of gold is seen by most as a major event. Since a majority of Gold bugs are key investors and hedge fund managers, there is potential market capitalization to tap into. After crossing the $1 trillion-mark, Bitcoin is even closer to $10 trillion, with the price following the S2F model like clockwork.

Gold’s S2F ratio was 62 while Bitcoin’s S2F was 52, at press time, and this may be one of the reasons for following S2F, despite the fact that many gold bugs will still find a reason to criticize BTC’s price action.

Will the narrative of Gold 2.0 play out this market cycle?

Source: Digitalk

The fact that Bitcoin’s annualized average daily volatility was observed to be above 120% and for Gold, it was a little over 20%, highlighted how the two are uncorrelated. Despite the two assets not being correlated post the decoupling in November 2020, the Gold 2.0 narrative is driving institutional investment inflows into Bitcoin. When Bitcoin’s S2F crosses 100, the flippening may occur and the comparisons between Gold and Bitcoin may cease to exist.

The cyclical movement of price, at the press time volatility of 16%, may continue in Bitcoin. In the last 24 hours alone, based on on-chain metrics, the trade volume has dropped by over 44% across exchanges. This drop in trade volume may be in response to the Bitcoin Options expiry on Deribit.

Previously, Options expiry events have had a significant impact on the price of the asset in the short-term. However, post the expiry, the price may sustain itself below its press time level, before recovering in a cyclical manner over the following month.

Will the narrative of Gold 2.0 play out this market cycle?

Source: Skew

Since this has emerged as a pattern in previous market cycles, it may repeat at least until the crypto’s price recovers and trades above the $55,000-level. A few days ago, the aggregate daily volume in BTC Futures on top exchanges was close to $180 billion. With a hike in volatility expected in the near-term, the figures for the same are likely to grow even more, especially if recovery is surely underway.


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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/this-bitcoin-metric-may-be-key-to-golds-flippening-in-the-future

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