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Numerai Review: Hedge Fund Data Science Network

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Numeraire is one of the most unique cryptocurrencies to have emerged so far. It also has serious potential as an asset. To understand why, we must first understand its utility within the Numerai ecosystem.

Numerai is a hedge fund which describes itself as “the hardest data science tournament on the planet” with rewards paid out in NMR. The goal of the tournament is to create powerful data models Numerai can use to increase its investment yields.

So, why should we care about Numeraire?

Numerai believes it is on track to becoming the world’s most powerful hedge fund, and NMR is the incentive being used to make that happen.

The Numerai Hedge Fund

For those unfamiliar, hedge funds are the investment vehicle of the 1%. In the United States, only “accredited” investors can give their money to hedge funds. As such, it should come as no surprise that the minimum entry is normally in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Hedge funds trade everything from stocks to fine art. Unlike legacy investment firms, hedge funds are essentially unregulated. This means that they are incredibly risky to invest in but also yield some of the highest returns in the world of finance (hey, that sounds like crypto!).

Richard Craib, the founder of Numerai, worked as a quant (a fancy word for market analyst) in a hedge fund shortly after graduating from UC Berkley and Cornell in mathematics and economics. He noticed there was a significant inefficiency in how hedge funds were operating. Specifically, they used primitive data models to predict asset prices and were very protective of the financial data they were modelling.

Craib created Numerai in 2015 as a way of introducing “network effects” to hedge fund operations and solving the two setbacks he was seeing. In short, he realized that if you could somehow get hundreds or even thousands of people to work together to create these data models without revealing the underlying data, you could generate more accurate price projections and become the most profitable hedge fund in the world.

How Does Numerai Work?

This is how Numerai works. First, users are given existing datasets that have been modified so that there is no way of knowing what assets they refer to. Then, these users participate in weekly tournaments by submitting predictions their data models generated. These predictions are applied to new sets of market data by Numerai. Users who submitted accurate predictions of this new data receive payouts, normally a month after the weekly tournament has concluded.

Behind the scenes, Numerai takes note of which users’ predictions are generating the most profitable investments and/or trades and puts them together to create a “meta-model”. This meta-model is then used by the Numerai hedge fund to trade assets more effectively. According to their Medium article, back-testing suggests this meta-model is not only more effective than linear or machine learning models, it is also less correlated to them.

Put simply, this means it is a data model unlike any other in the financial market. Perhaps the coolest thing about Numarai’s infrastructure is that it is trustless – Numerai keeps their financial data masked, and users keep their data models private since only the predictions they generate are being shared with Numerai.

The Numeraire Token

You might be wondering where NMR fits into this picture. Well, Numerai initially used Paypal to reward winners of their weekly data tournaments. After a falling out with Paypal, they switched to Bitcoin.

NMR Token Logo

However, they noticed two things: 1) that it was quite cumbersome for them to use Bitcoin as a method of payment and 2) that users needed some sort of incentive to create high quality data models with high quality predictions and not just spam the submission box with low quality data models in hopes of winning some cash.

What is Numeraire?

Numeraire (NMR) was created on the Ethereum blockchain in 2017 as an ERC-20 token with two purposes in mind: for contestants to stake their funds on the effectiveness of their data models and to provide a more convenient payout method.

Ever since it was introduced, competitors in weekly data science tournaments must stake NMR when submitting their predictions. The payout is determined partially by the amount of NMR they staked as well as the accuracy of their predictions. Stakes from unsuccessful predictions are burned, making Numeraire a deflationary asset.

Recently, Numeraire’s use-case expanded to include staking and payment inside the Erasure ecosystem. Launched in 2019 by Craib, Erasure is a marketplace where users can do things like buy and sell data and even request specific information.

Erasure Numerai
Numerai Erasure logo. Image via Medium

As noted on Erasure’s website, Numerai is a part of this broader project to decentralize and share data. Erasure seeks to expand this notion of “skin in the game” into social interactions and even offers a browser plug-in which only shows information from individuals who have staked cryptocurrency on their opinions.

Numeraire has undergone a number of changes since it was introduced. It initially had a maximum supply of 21 million, the same as Bitcoin. No ICO was launched. Instead, 1 million NMR tokens were airdropped to Numerai’s active users, which was around 12 000 at the time.

This might leave you wondering how it is that Numerai got the financial firepower required to start a hedge fund project of this kind. Thankfully, the answer is simple: they received funding to the tune of 7.5 million in 2016 from private investors including other hedge funds and have continued to receive investments ever since.

How much NMR is there?

In June of last year, Numerai cut the total supply of NMR from 21 million to 11 million and minted the outstanding supply of NMR. Until then, Numerai had only been minting the amounts necessary to reward successful participants in their weekly data science tournaments. In fact, this was built into the Numeraire token – it contains a smart contract which burns stakes from unsuccessful participants and pays out the appropriate reward to winners.

NMR 2.0
Launch of NMR 2.0. Image via Medium

According to Richard Craib, the 2019 update to the Numeraire token was done primarily to move towards decentralization. They wanted to put the token’s entire supply into play and give total control to Numeraire’s smart contract to handle the issuance and burning of NMR.

However, about a year before making the change, Numerai allocated 3 million NMR to a data science tournament set to conclude in May of 2028 and set aside a further 1 million NMR for future airdrops and partnerships.

NMR Coin Stats
NMR Coin Stats. Image via CMC

If you do the math (11 million minus 3+1 million) you are left with a total supply of 7 million tokens, 2.5 million of which are currently in circulation according to CoinMarketCap. As we will discuss in our opinion section about this cryptocurrency, there have been some disputes as to where the remaining 4.5 million tokens are, who holds them, and what they are being used for.

Numeraire Price analysis

Compared to many other cryptocurrencies, Numeraire has an interesting price history. Introduced to the crypto market in June of 2017 at a price of around USD$25. A few days later it skyrocketed to over USD$150 and then gradually bounced between USD$10 and USD$20 for the remainder of 2017.

What’s fascinating is that the price of Numeraire was hardly affected by the famous bull run in December 2017/January 2018. By that we mean it fell just short of hitting USD$60 during the bull run, which is only slightly more than double its original issuance price of USD$25, one which it had revisited multiple times during 2017.

NMR Price Performance
NMR Price Performance. Image via CMC

By December of 2018, the price of Numeraire had crashed to a mere USD$2. After hovering between USD$5-10, the token began to pick up steam in February of this year and has since reclaimed the USD$25-30 price range.

One thing which is important to note is that it had an incredibly fast recovery from the 65% flash-crash in March of this year and has since been gradually increasing in price. This may be due to the increase in participants in the Numerai tournament due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Where Can I get Numeraire?

In terms of trading, Numeraire is traded most on Bilaxy and Bittrex, which account for roughly USD$1.4 million of its USD$2 million daily trading volume (at the time of writing). Almost 50% of Numeraire trading is taking place on Bilaxy alone. Although it does not have the same clout as Bittrex, Bilaxy is safe to use (tested by yours truly).

Thankfully, upon close examination we can see very clearly from the order books that there is real volume being traded and liquidity is looking pretty darn good! This means you should have no issues trading on either of these platforms.

Besides winning the Numerai data science tournaments, the only way to get Numerai is to buy it from an exchange (and remember you need some NMR to stake to enter the tournament).

How to Store Numeraire (NMR)

If you are looking to store your Numeraire, it is quite simple to do since it is an ERC-20 token. This means you can store it on any wallet which supports Ethereum, including desktop cryptocurrency wallets like My Ether Wallet (MEW), mobile cryptocurrency wallets like Atomic Wallet and Trust Wallet, and hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor.

Don’t leave your NMR on exchanges! Always remember to keep your crypto on your own wallet whenever possible (trust me, I lost a few hundred USD on QuadrigaCX).

Numeraire and Numerai Roadmap

What’s next for Numerai and NMR? Well, this isn’t too clear. In lieu of a defined long-term roadmap, Numerai has outlined their “master plan” in a Medium article written by Numerai’s founder, Richard Craib. Numerai’s long term goals include monopolizing intelligence, monopolizing data, monopolizing money, and then decentralizing the monopoly.

Craib himself has stated that he wants Numerai to become the world’s “final” hedge fund. His reasoning is that the Numerai hedge fund, containing hundreds of thousands and eventually millions of data scientists, will eventually outperform every other financial investment firm in the world.

Numerai Master Plan
Numerai Master Plan. Image via Medium

As you know by now, NMR is used as both the stake and reward for data scientists in Numerai’s weekly data science tournaments. This means that as Numerai’s ecosystem continues to grow, so too will the demand for Numeraire by new data scientists entering the weekly competitions. The recent introduction of Erasure will also drive more demand for Numeraire since it is the token used to both purchase and stake information on the platform.

Numerai appears to be on track to achieve its goal of becoming the world’s most powerful hedge fund. It should be noted however that the focus of the team behind Numerai, including Richard Craib, has shifted their focus to Erasure.

As previously noted, Numerai is now a component of this new ecosystem which fundamentally seeks to bring the principle of “skin in the game” to every online interaction and transaction. It seems that Numeraire will continue to be the primary asset used for these purposes in Erasure’s future projects.

Our Opinion on Numerai

Numerai is a truly unique project in the world of cryptocurrency. In fact, there is probably only one other which is similar and that is HedgeTrade. On the HedgeTrade platform, users also make predictions about assets.

However, in contrast to Numerai, these predictions are purchased by other traders. In short, instead of pooling together your predictions into a meta-model for a hedge fund, you are submitting individual predictions to a marketplace where predictions are bought and sold using the HedgeTrade token.

There are also similar projects existing outside of the crypto sphere. These include QuantConnect, Quantopian, and WorldQuant. They also pool together the brain power of thousands of data scientists to create models to trade and invest from. However, there are a few significant differences between these hedge funds and Numerai.

Numerai Competitors
Numerai vs. Competitors

First, their ecosystems are not built using smart contracts, meaning you must trust that these hedge funds will pay their dues and actively uphold the process in a consistent manner indefinitely. Second, none of them seem to have additional incentives beyond rewards for accurate data models from their data scientists. Specifically, there is no real stake involved. Finally, there is a vetting process for data scientists who participate – it isn’t open for the world to join.

Although we can’t speak for Richard Craib, we know he would point out these flaws in detail as he has done many times before in interviews. Simply put, Numerai’s is much less fallible since it uses a smart contract to burn stakes and issue rewards, provides much more incentive to participants to submit accurate models via staking, and can be joined by just about anyone on the planet with a computer.

While it is skeptical whether Numerai will achieve its goals of total monopoly over finance, the project certainly has lots of potential and stands out as a promising venture both inside and outside of crypto.

Conclusion

Our opinion on the Numeraire token is slightly less positive. Here’s why:

NMR’s suspicious supply

Being an ERC-20 token, it is quite easy to pull up more detailed information about NMR using Etherscan.io. In an email correspondence between Coindesk and Richard Craib, it was noted that 1.7 million NMR were unaccounted for when Craib had outlined what would happen with the token after the supply cut.

Numerai Supply
Numerai Suspicious Supply. Image via Etherscan

As we can clearly see in the screenshot above, Craib (obviously Numerai Founder: Rc) has kept over 400 000 NMR for himself. A few other addresses seem to contain substantial amounts of NMR as well, and it is questionable whether they belong to super successful data scientists from Numerai.

This fact may put some people off since it can be a red flag when the creator of a token is keeping a substantial amount for himself.

NMR’s price potential

Numeraire’s price performance has been quite impressive compared to most other cryptocurrencies. However, the fact that it didn’t rise substantially in accordance with the 2017/2018 bull run suggests that it may not be an asset which will 10x any time soon.

Since NMR is burned every time a data scientist loses a tournament on Numerai or when someone submits faulty information on Erasure’s marketplace, this means that NMR’s total supply will gradually decrease.

While this gradual reduction in supply suggests a gradual increase in price over time (assuming demand for NMR stays the same or increases), it presents a second issue which could be the downfall of both Numerai and the Erasure ecosystem. This is because the moment the last NMR token is burned, there will no longer be a way for data scientists or information hunters to stake their submissions or receive payouts on either platform.

It seems that the likelihood this will happen anytime soon is quite slim and given that the amount of NMR received or offered is expressed in USD$, this means that both Numerai and Erasure have quite a lifetime ahead of them.

They will at least exist until May of 2028, which is when the mega data science tournament is set to conclude on Numerai. The 3 million tokens which are won will likely be sold, introducing a fresh supply of NMR to markets via exchanges for others to purchase and use to be staked in both Numerai and Erasure.

All being said, it’s up to you where you place your bets. None of the above is financial or investment advice, and we recommend you do your own research for any topics we covered here that you’d like to learn more about.

Be sure to stay tuned for more in-depth cryptocurrency reviews. Until then, check out our YouTube channel for the latest and greatest developments in crypto. See you in the next article!

Featured Image via Shutterstock

Disclaimer: These are the writer’s opinions and should not be considered investment advice. Readers should do their own research.


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Source: https://www.coinbureau.com/review/numerai-nmr/

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Shiba Inu (SHIB) Rises to Range High

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Shiba Inu (SHIB) yesterday reached the range high where it has been trading since May 2021. If the token breaks out of that area, it could begin a parabolic rise.

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SHIB currently ranks as the 47th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, according to Coingecko. The main “dog competitor” and also the younger brother of Dogecoin (DOGE) broke out of the descending triangle pattern and validated the falling resistance line as support.

SHIB reaches the range high

Since the May 2021 declines, SHIB has been in a range between resistance in the $0.00000950 area (red rectangle) and support at $0.00000550 (green rectangle). Over a period of almost 4 months, the altcoin has repeatedly reached and bounced off these two areas.

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On 16 September, SHIB rose 26% to reach the resistance area again a day later. At the press release, this area rejected the price and left a long upper wick.

However, if the daily candle closes above $0.00000904, a higher high will be printed on the daily chart. Combined with the higher low (blue arrows) of 7 September, this could signal a reversal and the start of an upward impulse.

Chart by Tradingview

The possibility of breaking through the top of the range and continuing the uptrend is also confirmed by the growing volume signature. During the last two days, it reached the highest values since mid-June (red arrow).

Technical indicators confirm the possibility of the continuation of the uptrend. RSI has broken above the 50 line and is rising. MACD generated two positive momentum bars and the signal line is close to entering positive territory. The stochastic oscillator is heading upwards and is close to entering bullish territory above 80.

Chart by Tradingview

Descending triangle

The daily chart also shows the breakout from the descending triangle that occurred on 7 September (orange arrow). On that day, SHIB rose 24% and began a multi-day consolidation. It then rose to the top of the range at $0.00000950 and started a downtrend.

The downward movement validated the descending triangle line twice as support (orange circles) and brought the price to the bottom around the range support area. Since then, SHIB has risen 40% and continues its upward movement.

Chart by Tradingview

The movement target for this pattern as measured by the height of the descending triangle is the $0.00001100 level. This resistance coincides with the 1.414 Fib external retracement level measured for the last downward movement. If SHIB reaches this peak, it will confirm the breakout from the range described in the previous section.

SHIB future movement

The short-term 4-hour chart shows a breakout from the descending resistance line that has been respected since August 17. The line was tested several times until it was decisively broken through with high volume on 16 September.

At the same time, the SHIB price also broke through the short-term support/resistance area near $0.00000760 (green rectangle). It coincides with the 0.382 Fib retracement level. It is expected that in the short term it will serve as support and the price will validate the area before continuing the upward movement.

Chart by Tradingview

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

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PhD and an assistant professor at an international university in Lublin, Poland. Spent 10 years studying philosophy of nature and sport science. An author of 4 books and two dozens of scientific articles. Now, he is using his mind for the benefits of the cryptocommunity. Technical analysis enthusiast, Bitcoin warrior, and a strong supporter of the idea of decentralization. Duc in altum!

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/shiba-inu-shib-rises-to-range-high/

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AMD Not Prioritize Mining Cards Over Gaming GPUs, Says CFO

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AMD, along with other chip manufacturers, has struggled to keep up with the high demand for GPUs due to crypto mining. 

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The past year has been hard on those looking to buy gaming graphic processing units (GPUs). The same high-powered units that are used in HD gaming applications also happen to be the GPU of choice for cryptocurrency miners worldwide. As the mining of cryptos such as Bitcoin becomes more and more difficult, more and more processing power is required to achieve the same goal.

Due to this, there has been a rush on GPUs in the last year with AMD, Nvidia, and other manufacturers struggling to keep pace. AMD has come under heavy pressure because of how poor its ability to meet the growing demand has been. Some even accused the company of prioritizing mining cards over gaming chips. The pandemic was another root cause of this shortage as the world’s population demanded more home electronics and entertainment devices across the board. 

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During the recent Deutsche Bank Technology Conference, CFO of AMD Devinder Kumar said that AMD was not prioritizing GPU cryptocurrency miners when asked directly about it. Kumar’s response was “crypto, negligible. That’s not a priority for us. We do not prioritize our products or make them for the crypto folks is not for the gamers, and that’s a high priority from that standpoint. What’s driven the growth, as you know, we had the Radeon 6000 Series high-end GPUs introduced very competitive and that is driving the growth in the GPU space.” 

Crypto-specific cards might be the answer

Nvidia has suffered through the same issue as its competition and is tackling it in a rather reasonable way. The company began to produce and market GPUs that were specifically designed for cryptocurrency miners. Nvidia creating a distinct separation between the two should help alleviate the rush on gaming GPUs that users are scrambling to purchase. 

The crypto-mining processors (CMPs) that are now being sold aren’t as sophisticated as their gaming counterparts because they don’t need to be. Because they can’t be used for conventional graphics-related tasks, they will not flood the GPU secondary market. CMP cards can’t be used for graphics-related tasks are therefore won’t flood the secondary market with GPUs.

Another step that Nvidia has taken to combat this issue is to nerf its currency line of GPUs to make them less suited to the task of mining cryptocurrencies. Due to this, they are only effective as gaming cards.

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Matthew De Saro is a journalist and media personality specializing in sports, gambling, and statistics. Before joining BeInCrypto, his work was featured on Fansided, Forbes, and OutKick. With a background in statistical analysis and a love of writing, he takes an outside-the-box approach to reporting news.

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/amd-not-prioritize-mining-cards-more-than-gaming-gpus/

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Tomi Heroes NFT Sales Surpasses $1.35M

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NFT and DeFi enthusiasts worldwide may be wondering why Tomi Heroes have been popping off on OpenSea in recent days.

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These non-fungible tokens grant access to Tomi’s token presale soon, so the limited-edition sets are in high demand. With 395 Ether roughly $1.37 million in traded volume, it is evident that this is the project to keep an eye on over the coming days. 

Massive TOMI Presale ROI Potential

As Tomi Heroes generate more proceeds, the team will use these funds to purchase and burn TOMI token during the TOMI sale on SushiSwap.

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It is a no-brainer for any TOMI presale participant, as, given the contribution by the TOMI team from the NFT sale, the return on investment potential is borderline astronomical.

As more FOMO kicks in among investors who seek exposure to the TOMI presale rounds, the remaining NFTs will generate even more attention and return for the presale.

It is essential to see this project for what it embodies. It is not just an NFT collectible, although these items will likely remain very popular on the secondary market after the token sale concludes.

Instead, it is a tool to facilitate token presale participation and incentivize holding the NFT rather than flipping it for a quick profit like so many other projects. 

Moreover, using the proceeds to make the TOMI token even more scarce is a gamechanger in the crypto industry.

Since the project focuses on giving back to the stakeholders with no profits for the developers, other NFT projects can learn a thing or two from how Tomi approaches this novel technology.

Perhaps this will set a precedent for ethical and inventive demand-driven tokenomics.

Investing in Tomi Heroes is a smart idea if you are interested in partaking in the TOMI presale rounds. It is essential to gain access to one of these five presale rounds, as they are available for only 30 minutes each.

The current rate of ETH trading volume is sufficient to make investors 10x on their TOMI investment even if no one else would participate in the token sale and it remains at a $75,000 market cap. 

The TOMI launch will happen on the Polygon network via the SushiSwap platform to avoid transaction delays and high gas fees. The token presale rounds will take place on September 21, 2021, with each of the five presale rounds lasting 30 minutes. .

A dive into the Tomi technology

To grasp the potential of TOMI, it is essential to look at what the ecosystem will provide to its users. Powering scalable projects through blockchain technology and introducing DEX swapping are two of its core solutions.

The focus on decentralized finance can change the lives of millions of people by democratizing access to alternative financial services and products.

Aligning this vision with PancakeSwap’s success and long-term plan can create a sustainable and attractive outlook for cryptocurrency and blockchain over the coming years. 

TOMISwap will serve as the next-generation decentralized trading platform built by the Tomi team. It will run on the Ethereum blockchain and facilitate the swapping of multiple tokens without forcing users to spend an arm and a leg on transaction fees.

Offering sustainable, efficient, cheap, and fast solutions for transactions at a high throughput helps conserve energy and offers scalability that will benefit all participants. 

The transaction fee per swap is capped at 0.3% of the amount, thanks to the use of decentralized liquidity providers. Of those fees:

  • Liquidity providers will earn 66.6% of transaction fees from TOMISwap and the Sushiswap smart contract’s activity, 
  • Governance token stakers will receive 16.6% of the transaction fee.
  • TOMISwap user giveaways will be allocated 8.3% of the transaction fee.
  • The remaining 8.3% goes to TOMIFundMe. 

Through TOMIFundMe, every person on the planet can set up a profile to share project ideas and business plans.

Rather than stopping there, TOMIFundMe will help business ideas grow and evolve if they can change the world for the better.

All TOMI holders can vote on projects to receive a grant. Those grants are paid out using the 8.3% of all TOMISwap fees collected for this purpose.

It is a front-row seat to future development in the decentralized industry, unlike anything that has been seen before. 

The team’s strong focus on wealth distribution and making a positive societal impact brink value to the TOMI token and those who hold it in their portfolio. However, there are multiple benefits to holding that token.

TOMI utility In a nutshell

The TOMI token serves multiple purposes in the Tomi ecosystem, as it is the native currency.

Ranging from community governance to liquidity provision and cheap transactions, there are multiple reasons to like the concept of TOMI.

Governance token stakers receive passive income from TOMISWAP and can vote on the new era of blockchain development.

Traders can benefit from cheap transaction fees and liquidity rewards through swapping DEX. 

With an initial supply of 1.5 billion – capturing the initial needs of the project – the team opts for using half of the coins to provide liquidity through Sushiswap.

Another 250 million tokens will fund the development of the project and require TOMI governance token holder approval before spending.

The remaining 500 million – to be unlocked over three years – is used for the Community pool. There are no free tokens for the founders or anyone else to ensure a fair distribution and release. 

After the TOMI sale concludes, the team will launch TomiSwap and TOMI staking in October 2021. TomIFundMe will be released in Q1 2022, somewhere near February.

The Tomi blockchain – marking the migration away from Ethereum – goes live in Q3 2022 and will support ERC-20 tokens. 

Closing thoughts

The ongoing interest in the Tomi NFTs confirms investors are on board with the team’s vision of creating wealth for everyone through fairness and transparency.

Moreover, the team’s choice to use all proceeds to buy back TOMI tokens and reduce the supply from day one – without any developer receiving a free allocation of tokens – confirms their commitment to a long-term business plan capable of changing DeFi for good. 

A confident team with a solid business plan and a forward-thinking approach can make many ideas become reality. As cryptocurrency becomes a more mainstream concept, now is the time to build wealth and share it with everyone else. All aspects of Tomi fulfill that outlook and provide value and incentive for TOMI holders.

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All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.

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Source: https://beincrypto.com/tomi-heroes-nft-sales-surpasses-1-35m/

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