NFL Week 1 is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are the NFL week 1 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from Tallysight as of Tuesday morning)
Last Season: 134-142-8
NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread
Thursday Night Football
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
The Chiefs are coming off another Super Bowl win, but the team looks a little different. Changes have been made on the offensive line, as they have two new starting tackles. Frank Clark is now a Bronco and Chris Jones is holding out. Travis Kelce has a hyperextended knee and will likely miss the game. Kansas City can still win this game, but the Lions can keep it close. Jared Goff is prepared for a shootout and the Lions have the offensive line and weapons to help him.
Pick: Lions
Sunday Afternoon
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
Houston has improved their roster by drafting C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. It will be a tough test going across the country and playing the Ravens in their first games. The Ravens have a new look offense, but more importantly Lamar Jackson is healthy to start the year. Baltimore can win and cover.
Pick: Ravens
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
The Falcons invested in their defense and then drafted running back Bijan Robinson. They will try to control the clock and play good defense to win games. Carolina drafted Bryce Young with the first overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, but their offensive line still has some holes that can be exploited.
Pick: Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
Minnesota has made plenty of moves this offseason. Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook are gone. Marcus Davenport was signed to help the defense. Their offense should still lead the way. Tampa Bay struggled last year, but made the playoffs. They no longer have Tom Brady though and have several contract issues going on at the moment.
Pick: Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson has all of the physical tools to be a great quarterback. He does need to work on seeing the field better and his accuracy. That could take time to develop. The Jaguars can go on the road and start the season off with a win.
Pick: Jaguars
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)
New Orleans improved at quarterback by signing Derek Carr. Michael Thomas is coming back to form a good wide receiver duo with Chris Olave. While Alvin Kamara will miss three games with a suspension, their defense also should be solid. Tennessee could keep it close, but the Saints offense can cover with more offensive output on the roster this season.
Pick: Saints
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-7)
The Cardinals will be without Kyler Murray as he still recovers from his torn ACL. They cut backup Colt McCoy before the season started. Now they will start rookie Clayton Tune or newly-acquired Josh Dobbs. Arizona doesn’t look like they will be very good on paper. Washington’s defense can carry them to a bigger victory while Sam Howell adjusts to being the starter.
Pick: Commanders
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati proved that the 2021 season wasn’t a fluke by returning to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year. They improved their offensive line, but did lose their safeties from last season. They are the smart pick on the road until Deshaun Watson has shown he can shake off the rust, something he didn’t do in the last few games of last season.
Pick: Bengals
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The 49ers may have some issues on their offensive line and Nick Bosa may not play. They still have enough talent to go on the road and beat the Steelers. They can pressure Kenny Pickett and win by a touchdown.
Pick: 49ers
Sunday Evening
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at New England Patriots
While it is tough to open up on the road, the Eagles are a much better team than the Patriots overall. Jalen Hurts can help them win and cover, while the Patriots may have trouble moving the ball on the Eagles’ defense.
Pick: Eagles
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Both these teams will be looking to turn things around from last season. Hiring Sean Peyton helps the Broncos, but Russell Wilson didn’t play well in the preseason. The Raiders can at least keep it close while Wilson tries to get used to a new offense.
Pick: Raiders
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Tua Tagovailoa is back healthy for the Dolphins and will be able to utilize his weapons again, which really impressed last year. The Chargers usually don’t have much of a home-field advantage so the Dolphins can win outright on the road.
Pick: Dolphins
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5)
The Rams aren’t the team they once were. To make things worse, Cooper Kupp reaggravated his hamstring injury. Seattle should be able to win by at least a touchdown on their home turf.
Pick: Seahawks
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1)
Green Bay could have some growing pains after turning the team over to Jordan Love. The Bears are much improved and will be relying on Justin Fields’s arm and legs to lead them to victory.
Pick: Bears
Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
The opening Sunday Night Football game of the season has division rivals going at it after they both made the playoffs last season. Dallas is healthy, which is something they have struggled with the last few seasons, and they have capable players on both sides of the ball. They should win and cover.
Pick: Cowboys
Monday Night Football
Buffalo Bills (-2) at New York Jets
The Bills and Jets are a more anticipated matchup this season after the Jets acquired Aaron Rodgers. Their inconsistencies up front could be attacked by the Bills in the opening game of the season.
Pick: Bills
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- Source: https://thegamehaus.com/nfl/nfl-week-1-picks-against-the-spread-6/2023/09/05/
