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Massive Bitcoin Drop. Wait for the Bottom

In this episode, we will look at the recent drop of the top crypto assets and what to expect from this drop. Bitcoin crash is expected.

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In this episode, we will look at the recent drop of the top crypto assets and what to expect from this drop. As usual, we will consider the factors in favour of the continuation of the downward trend and the signals to look for in the nearest future to identify the local bottom.

As usual, you can see the four different charts, all related to Bitcoin. The one on the top left is the BTC futures and top right is the BTC dominance and in the bottom, on the left is Bitstamp with the longest history and the one in the bottom right is Binance where we trade. So, let’s go straight into the content. 

bitcoin price charts

As usual, we’re starting from the weekly overview, so you can see in front of you the weekly candles. And obviously, the most important thing is that the wall during the past week, we saw a huge move below the 50 Moving Average (MA). And at the same time, this happened over the weekends because the actual candle on the futures was green. So, it means that from Monday till Friday last week or going up and during the weekends we’ve had this huge dump below the 50MA. So, we passed the support level straightaway. On the futures market, we have seen an increase in volume starting from the beginning of the year. So, from January till mid-February, we can see that there was an increase in volume. Now the volume is slightly dropping for the past couple of weeks.

And this can be one of the reasons why it was so easy to pass this particular support of 50MA on a weekly chart. So, let’s switch all our drawings from the previous weeks and go straight into the content. 

Bitcoin Futures Price Analysis (CME)

bitcoin futures price

So, go to the daily charts and going into more details on the future market. We expected this drop towards the area of 61 per cent, between 61 and 65 per cent of a Fibonacci retracement. However, it went even further down. You can see that the Monday move. So, starting on early Monday morning, there was still a downward move even further towards the area of 78 per cent of Fibonacci retracement. But this is exactly what we’ve been talking about last time.

So, we saw the retest of the 200 MA as a resistance. And from that point, we saw a huge drop towards the area where we were expecting the Bitcoin to be – 7900 BTC/USD. For now, the volume is not that great, even though it is higher than the volume during the previous week. But we will still want to see at least the higher volume and probably the divergence on the RSI will be another confirmation that we found a local bottom and somebody is buying bitcoin back.

And so that’s exactly what we expect. And based on the idea that we don’t see this yet and that was the move from the downward trend. So probably we’re going to go even further down rechecking this bottom at around 7300 BTC/USD. And this could be a further downward move for Bitcoin. We can probably go down even below 7300 BTC/USD if we’ll see an increase in volume during that time or we’ll see some area of consolidation. Same as we saw during the previous days.

So over here, there was a slight consolidation between the 200 MA and 50 MA. So this is exactly what we would be looking for in the area of 7200 BTC/USD. At the same time, it would be really nice to see the Divergence on the RSI. While the price will go down the RSI will start increasing. And this will be a signal, including the volume that somebody is buying back the Bitcoin at this level. So this is exactly what we’re gonna be looking for. For now, it obviously looks very heavily to the downside. And we’re not talking today about this gap in particular because this is a huge gap and it doesn’t seem and doesn’t look like it’s gonna close within this week.

This will be very surprising. So the example of such huge gaps are here in history and you can see it while going up. So you can see that this gap, for example, on the 14th of June, we had a massive increase of around 6 per cent. And then this gap was filled only during the September retracement of Bitcoin futures. So I wouldn’t say that we’re expecting this gap, in particular, to be filled year in the first week. It would be of later on, but it would not matter. At that time, because statistically, statistically speaking, we are just concerned about the 1-week projection. 

btc dominance

What we can see over here, we rechecked the zone of 65-66%. We were expecting to go a little bit higher towards the 200 MA to 68% BTC dominance, but we’ve stuck with 50 MA as a resistance, which is a good sign for us, which means that at this stage, the altcoin market can either depreciate slower, which is not usually the case for them, or we can see that some altcoins will be pumping even though the bitcoin is going down. Usually, there is a negative relationship with MATIC, for example, between BTC and MATIC.

Bitcoin BTC/USD price analysis on Bitstamp

bitcoin price bitstamp

We are using BTC/USD from Bitstamp primarily for the long-term analysis.

So again, the weekly overview. Weekly candles suggest that we’re in quite a good downward trend, even though on the 24th of February, we had a very strong bearish candle. On the second of March, it is still bearish. We crossed the 50 MA. So it’s not acting as a support right now. We are going to the local bottom, so it’s around 6900 BTC/USD.

And it looks like we are going to reach this bottom if it will be so, then our prediction, which we made a couple of weeks ago about this huge move and huge triangle and this is the big resistance line over here, which we didn’t touch yet, which means that we need to find another local bottom at this level of 6800 BTC/USD, an increase in volume, for example. All this will signify that somebody is buying back some of bitcoin and converted into long positions rather than short positions. We should go slightly below the level to take off some stock positions as well. And this will be a wonderful setup for the future growth in April, for example.

Bitcoin BTC/USDT price analysis on Binance

bitcoin price binance

Here we’re talking about the short-term trends. We touched there’s a local downward trend line. As we mentioned last time, it was holding us as resistance for some time. We still went through it. And then the level of 8500 BTC/USDT was broken with a very, very nice volume of very strong bearish candles.

You can see that this move overall went towards the next level of support, which is seven thousand eight hundred, which was a mark for us at this stage. You can see a nice and strong volume here. You can see that the RSI go towards the oversold region, which is quite a good indicator to start buying back a little bit of bitcoin. However, don’t rush into it. The usual confirmation I’m looking for is a divergence. So probably something like this.

We’ll see the retest of around 8300 BTC/USDT or maybe 8000 BTC/USDT because it’s just a good round number. And then another decrease, depreciation of the price to a level of 7600 BTC/USDT and if during that stage will have the RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart. This will be a nice signal to consider that we might see some local bottom and there will be a very short upward trend.

Ethereum ETH/USDT price analysis

ethereum price analysis

As usual, we’ll start from the weekly candlestick, same as bitcoin. During the previous two weeks, there was a very heavy drop with a very strong volume, especially on the week starting on the 24th of February. A strong bearish candle on the daily chart, we were talking last time that we went into that channel. Bounced from the bottom of the channel and went to the top of that channel and then a very strong candle yesterday, which broke everything, the upward channel, the 50 MA and stopped exactly at the price that we suggested last time – 200 ETH/USDT. And that’s that was exactly the point.

So, 200 ETH/USDT is a nice round number. Usually, the round numbers count as good areas of support and take in the historical overview that it was acting as a support line for several points in history. So what we’re expecting next is a further downward move. We’re currently between 50 MA and the 200 MA. So we’ll be consolidating a little bit, but it will look like this. So we should go and recheck this 50 MA. I mean, go down towards the 190 ETH/USDT. We should break the level of 200 ETH/USDT. This will be quite vital for us if the price will be quite slow in terms of its movement and we’ll stay in that horizontal channel.

So we will be able to see that the 200 MA start slowly to increase and it will act as the support at around 190 ETH/USDT. We don’t see any divergence here. You can definitely put a downward channel through the top like that. This at some point will act as a resistance. But at the same time what we are looking for right now is a short upward move towards the 50 MA to test that as a resistance now and then to check the 200 MA as a support. This can take a slightly more than a week, but again, taking into account what happened during the weekends, you can probably expect that some move towards the end of the week can be absolutely massive.

That was it for this week. Thank you very much. Please subscribe to our YouTube channel to stay tuned with our weekly reviews of Bitcoin and Ethereum price analysis. And best of luck with your cryptocurrency trading.

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Blockchain

Bitcoin.org Hacked, Showing Sign of “Double Return Bitcoin” in Gift Scam


Bitcoin.org, an open-source and peer-to-peer platform focused on bitcoin development, was hacked this Thursday morning by showing bitcoin’s giveaway activities. (Read More)

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Bitcoin.org, a peer-to-peer (P2P) and open-source platform focused on bitcoin development was hacked this Thursday morning by showing bitcoin’s giveaway activities.

Starting at about 05:44 UTC on Thursday, a sign of “This website cannot be accessed” displayed on the Bitcoin.org website.

After that, an aside window popped up on the Bitcoin.org homepage, asking users to deliver Bitcoins to a dedicated address with an attached QR code and address, and claimed that it would be returned in double in the future.

The news stated that the campaign was targeted at the bitcoin foundation to give back to the user community that it has always supported and was limited to the first 10,000 users.

Bitcoin.org is not affiliated with the Bitcoin Foundation, but the site often appears when users search for bitcoin on search engines.

At present, the direct URL of the website cannot be accessed, and other subpages cannot operate normally.

The user is promised a doubled false promise through false gift fraud after transferring encrypted assets to this wallet address, causing the user to lose the transferred bitcoin.

According to the data on the chain, the receiving address has received 0.4 BTC in the past few hours, with a total value of more than $17,700.

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Source: https://Blockchain.News/news/bitcoin.org-hackedshowing-sign-double-return-bitcoin-gift-scam

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Blockchain

Bitcoin, Ether, or XRP – The crypto of choice for terror funding is…

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It has been a tense time for Coinbase. The crypto-exchange recently felt the regulatory squeeze when the United States SEC reportedly threatened to sue if Coinbase launched its high-interest crypto product – Lend.

These developments, however, haven’t stopped the exchange from highlighting its efforts towards compliance. A recently-released Twitter thread is a case in point.

The crypto-exchange yesterday shared statistics about cryptocurrencies’ link to global terrorism, and what it is doing to combat the threat.

Coinbase investigates

Cryptocurrency’s “links” to terrorism are a major reason behind the FUD among international policymakers and regulators.

And yet, a report by Coinbase’s Special Investigations Team found that “illicit activity” made up less than 1% of all activities in the crypto-space in 2020. This was an observation arrived at after looking at the BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH, and XRP blockchains or ledgers.

About terrorism, the report stated,

“Further breaking down illicit activity, we find that transactions associated with terrorist financing (TF) in 2020 made up less than 0.05% of all illicit volume. As such, terror funding in cryptocurrencies remains extremely low in overall terms.”

It’s worth noting, however, that the report identified the Palestinian militant group Hamas as having raised the most funds among terrorist organizations.

Do terrorists have any preferences?

According to the said report, Hamas has collected more than $750,000 in Bitcoin since 2018. After Hamas, the Saudi-led jihadi activist movement has raised more than $250,000 in Bitcoin and altcoins. In third place, came an Al Qaeda-related exchange service.

Source: Coinbase Blog

Bitcoin was the most prominent crypto in terrorism financing, but the report also identified the growing popularity of altcoins such as XRP and Ether.

Bitcoin’s popularity could be due to its status as the biggest crypto and the coin’s relative stability. Meanwhile, XRP’s use case is similar to the cross-border hawala remittance practice common in Middle Eastern and South Asian cultures.

In order to stop terror funding campaigns, Coinbase claimed it would “blocklist” crypto-addresses related to such institutions, use its analytics, and work with agencies like the FBI.

Analyzing Hamas

Put simply, the Palestinian organization aims to destroy Israel. It has two main components – A military force and a social welfare arm.

In 2020, Chainalysis reported how the organization’s Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades (AQB) launched multiple campaigns to raise Bitcoin donations. Their tactics included instructional videos for both basic and experienced tech users, as well as unique payment addresses for every donor.

While crypto-terror funding is a small part of the vast DeFi sector, traders can expect to see more exchanges and companies keeping a watch on organizations classified as terror groups.

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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-ether-or-xrp-the-crypto-of-choice-for-terror-funding-is

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Invesco Partners with Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital to Rollout Suite of Crypto ETFs


Investment management firm, Invesco, is preparing to make crypto ETFs available to investors. The company has partnered with Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd to expand its existing exchange-traded funds. (Read More)

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Invesco Ltd., a major operator of exchange-traded funds in the U.S., is preparing to launch a suite of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by cryptocurrencies.

Invesco, an investment management firm based in Atlanta, is partnering with Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. to rollout U.S.-listed ETFs that hold and track the performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that trade like stocks.

The Atlanta-based asset manager wants to capitalize on the consumers’ rising interest in digital assets. One of the first crypto ETFs that Invesco plans to launch under the partnership is Bitcoin-backed ETF, which Galaxy initially proposed in April.

Invesco, which manages $1.5 trillion in assets globally, including about $470 billion in indexed strategies and ETFs, disclosed the partnership on Wednesday, September 22.

Galaxy, which has $2.1 billion in assets under management, had filed for a US ETF that would invest directly in Bitcoin in April. But on Tuesday, September 21, Galaxy revised the ETF’s filing with the SEC to make Invesco the sponsor for the proposed fund.

Jn June, Invesco had filed with the SEC to launch a Crypto Economy ETF that seeks to invest mainly in cryptocurrency firms and up to 10% in Bitcoin futures. The planned fund intends to track the Alerian Galaxy Global Cryptocurrency-Focused Blockchain Index.

Last month, Invesco also filed with the SEC to bring to market a Bitcoin strategy offering that would invest most or all of its assets in Bitcoin futures contracts traded on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange).

John Hoffman, head of Americas, ETFs and indexed strategies at Invesco, talked about the partnership with Galaxy and said: “When we partner, we always look to work with best in class, subject matter experts, and Galaxy has to experience across all verticals of digital assets. We are aligned on a common vision, and most importantly, a path focused on education to help investors safely navigate this new technology.”

Sumit Roy, a crypto editor and analyst of ETF.com, also talked about the partnership. Roy said that if the SEC approves the deal, then Invesco and Galaxy will launch products tied to all of the most cryptocurrencies – Bitcoin, ether, Solana, etc., as well as index products.

Meanwhile, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz stated on Wednesday during the Mainnet 2021 conference in New York that he is unsure when SEC chairman Gary Gensler will decide to approve the EFTs. Still, he said that there would be equity EFTs with all different public stocks and other products when the SEC will give the greenlights.

Race to Launch Bitcoin ETFs

Invesco is partnering with Galaxy to create a suite of physically-backed digital assets ETFs amid the current regulatory uncertainty around such products in the U.S.

The development is resurfacing when the US SEC approves an ETF to hold digital assets and track their price tags.

It has been eight years since the Winklevoss twins first attempted to obtain approval with the SEC for a Bitcoin ETF.

More than 18 asset management firms have jumped abroad with their filings this year, but the U.S. securities regulator has approved none. And it is unlikely that a physical Bitcoin ETF will be approved this year.

However, SEC boss Gary Gensler recently signalled that he would be more open to considering a futures-based Bitcoin ETF under strict rules.  

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Source: https://Blockchain.News/news/invesco-partners-mike-novogratz-galaxy-digital-rollout-suite-crypto-etfs

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