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Key Bitcoin price indicators signal bulls bought the $43K retest

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) severe 26% drop from its $58,300 all-time high on Feb. 20 injected a bit of bearishness into the market, but from a technical perspective, this was purely psychological, as the digital asset held the $43,000 support with ease. This downside move caused indicators like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to hit 38, its lowest level in five months.

Bitcoin price in U.S. dollars on Coinbase. Source: TradingView

Even though a $15,400 downside move might seem unusual, 25% and even larger corrections happened on six separate occasions during the 2017 bull run. Moreover, when BTC first made an all-time high at $42,000 on Jan. 8, a 31.5% negative swing to $28,750 happened in the following two weeks.

As Bitcoin tried to establish a bottom, derivatives contracts eliminated any bullish signal and momentarily displayed worrisome data. For example, the open interest on futures dropped 22% after peaking at $19.1 billion on Feb. 21.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest. Source: Bybt

As depicted above, considering the end-of-month expiry impact, BTC futures open interest fell by 22%. Albeit significant, the remaining $14.9 billion is still 44% above the previous month’s data.

Derivatives indicators held steady, indicating a healthy market

By measuring the futures contracts premium to the current spot levels, one can infer whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish. Typically, markets should display a slightly positive annualized rate, a situation known as “contango.”

Bitcoin 1-month futures annualized premium. Source: TradingView

Although the one-month futures contracts premium toned down from the ultra-bullish 6% rate seen mid-February, it did manage to sustain levels above 1.2%. The annualized equivalent is a 70% peak compared with the current 17% rate. Therefore, the futures contracts premium indicates that any excessive leverage from buyers has been eliminated, but we are nowhere near a bear market.

Meanwhile, the BTC options markets 25% delta skew measures how the neutral-to-bullish calls are priced compared with equivalent bearish puts.

Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

The indicator acts as an options traders’ fear and greed gauge and was sitting at -5% until Feb. 21, meaning protection to the upside was more expensive. Over the past week, the 25% delta skew moved to a neutral zone that was last seen almost five months ago.

This further confirms the absence of desperation from market makers and top traders while shredding signs of the excessive optimism seen in January.

The absence of bearishness during a crash is a good signal

As institutional investors continue to flock to the space, Bitcoin’s volatility tends to have a lessened impact on derivatives markets. To illustrate this new situation, both BTC futures and options markets indicators were far from flashing any red flags despite the 26% price drop.

Bitcoin’s positive newsflow and institutional investors interest is likely unharmed after the most recent retest of $43,000. Thus, as companies and mutual funds accumulate Bitcoin, instead of framing dips as catastrophic, these moves should be interpreted as buying opportunities.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/key-bitcoin-price-indicators-signal-bulls-bought-the-43k-restest

Blockchain

Bitcoin Bull Mike Novogratz Predicts Existential Crisis Unless the US Creates a Digital Dollar

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Mike Novogratz, a veteran investor, and a huge Bitcoin supporter noted the U.S. is currently in a good economic position. Still, the nation can face a major competitive disadvantage unless it engineers a digital dollar soon.

The Importance Of An E-Dollar

Novogratz, chief executive of digital merchant bank Galaxy Digital GLXY, underlined the value that a digital dollar could bring to the US. In a Friday interview with MarketWatch, he stated:

”To me it is an existential crisis, we need a digital dollar.”

Furthermore, the investor expressed his view over the current COVID pandemic and the negative impact on the U.S. market and the world, in general. He referred to the trillions of dollars of monetary and fiscal spending done to help eliminate the worst of the economic aftershocks the disease caused:

”If our fiscal and monetary policy starts looking like it’s from a Banana Republic…you are going to run into some Minsky moment where confidence breaks down.”

With his statement, Mike Novogratz referenced Hyman Minsky, who exposed a view in the recent past that a period of distortions in the financial system eventually ends very badly.


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The existence of a digital dollar sounds even more important after some stock-market investors have been warning about a surge in US inflation in the past weeks.

The Competition With China

During the interview, Novgorotz claimed that while in the U.S., the development of an e-dollar is still under question and researches, China has fired the first salvo on the digital currency front.

The biggest economy in Asia conveys great support to its digital yuan. According to some experts in the field, its new currency is a weapon that the country can use to compete with the U.S. and other developed economies.

As CryptoPotato recently reported, PayPal CEO Peter Thiel said that Bitcoin could be used as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.

In the meantime, Novogratz said that there is ”zero evidence of the Chinese government buying Bitcoin” much less weaponizing it, referring to the comments made by Peter Thiel:

”Sometimes he likes to say things that are provocative.”

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-bull-mike-novogratz-predicts-existential-crisis-unless-the-us-creates-a-digital-dollar/

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Ripple becomes tidal wave, leads weekend pump and notches legal victories

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Amid a weekend pump carrying multiple cryptocurrencies higher, Ripple’s XRP looks to be leading the way with a push as high as 30% on the daily — carried on the back of a string of legal victories and rumors of relisting at some exchanges. 

Where Bitcoin and Ethereum are up merely 2.7% and 3.4% respectively on the day, XRP climbed to $1.36 before retreating to $1.32, where it sits at the time of publication. The digital currency is now up 111% on a 7 day basis, and a staggering 544% on the year. The recent push has also buoyed XRP back into the top 10 cryptocurrencies by marketcap, behind only BTC, ETH, and BNB at #4.

The rally flies in the face of a lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which charges that XRP’s $1.3 billion ICO was an “unregistered securities offering.” The news led multiple exchanges to delist the currency, and XRP lost its place as the 3rd largest currency by marketcap, at time looking as if it would even fall out of the top ten. 

The bad news for XRP didn’t stop with the SEC, either. In March Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that the company would be “winding down” its relationship with Moneygram — a once highly-touted partnership that investors often pointed to as proof of the digital currency being on a path towards becoming “the standard” for payments and settlement.

Despite the deluge of negative headlines, it appears all buyers needed was a small ray of hope to jump back in — and they’ve gotten exactly that. Ripple lawyers have notched two victories in their legal battle against the SEC, including winning access to internal SEC discussion history regarding cryptocurrencies, and a court denied the SEC the ability to disclose the financial records of two Ripple execs, including Garlinghouse.

Ripple executives themselves seem heartened by the news, with CTO David Schwartz saying the US isn’t “prepared” to regulate cryptocurrencies (a possible dig at the ongoing legal proceedings).

All in all, it’s just another week for one of the most controversial cryptocurrencies in the space.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ripple-becomes-tidal-wave-leads-weekend-pump-and-notches-legal-victories

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Why this OlympusDAO’s product could be amongst DeFi most lucrative

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Taking the market by storm, OlympusDAO’s native OHM is up 95.8% this week alone and 31.1% in the past two weeks. At the time of writing, OHM is trading at $812,76 with 7.3% profits in the 24-hour chart.

With a market cap of just $68 million, OlympusDAO might have gone unnoticed by many investors. However, it has a mechanism called Bonds which promises to be one most important and lucrative in the DeFi sector.

According to research firm Messari, this protocol is attempting to create a stable currency backing every OHM with DAI and OHM-DAI. The objective is to maintain a “fundamental check on inflation” and a currency with an undiluted purchasing power.

Unlike Tether and other stablecoins, OHM is not pegged to any other asset. Its stability is achieved via the DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) when it alters variables to obtain more profitability for stakers.

This is done via the sales contract connected to the protocol’s treasury and a liquidity pool (OMH-DAI) on decentralized exchange Sushiswap, as shown below. Messari explains:

When OHM trades above 1 DAI, the protocol mints and sells new OHM. When OHM trades below 1 DAI, the protocol buys back and burns OHM. In each case the protocol makes a profit. Olympus DAO distributes these profits 90% to OHM stakers pro rata and 10% to a DAO.

OlympusDAO OHM
Source: Messari

How OlympusDAO’s bonds operate

The Bonds are a treasury component to get liquidity with it users can trade Stake Liquidity Provider tokens to get OHM directly with the protocol, as an OlympusDAO developer explained.

Once the trade is completed there is a vesting schedule of 5 days. During this time, the user can redeem the tokens but has incentives to get them at a discount. The latter is determined by the number of bonds in the protocol, more bonds are equal to a lower discount.

Via this mechanism, as the developer said, OlympusDAO restrains its own growth, to have become “steadier”.

The liquidity from a bond is locked in the treasury and used to back new $OHM. That liquidity now belongs to the market and, by extension, the token holders. The more liquidity the protocol builds up, the more confident holders can feel.

The users are basically contributing to OlympusDAO by adding liquidity. In retribution, the user gets a reward in OHM at a much cheaper price during a specific period. That way, both the user and the protocol can benefit.

OlympusDAO offers LP a variety of strategies around OHM which they can leverage to obtain a bigger profit than on the spot market. The developer claims:

All of this serves to create a long-term, sustainable bootstrapping mechanism for the protocol, with participants as the main beneficiaries. A good system shouldn’t offer one opportunity to “make it”; it should offer them in perpetuity with diminishing returns. This is how you produce wealth; slowly, through compounding gains.

Ethereum is trading at $2096,58 with a 1.2% profit in the 24-hour chart, after dropping from its ATH at $2,198.

OlympusDAO OHM Ethereum ETHUSD
ETH with small profits in the 24-hour chart. Source: ETHUSD Tradingview

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/news/why-this-olympusdaos-product-could-be-amongst-defi-most-lucrative/

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