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Is Bitcoin at risk of another drop below $40K in a historically corrective March?

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Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a corrective week as the price dropped from $58,000 to $44,000 in a matter of days. This dropdown caused a panic reaction across the markets as the euphoria was immediately halted.

For instance, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to monthly lows of 56 after being above 90, or “extreme greed” for an entire month. 

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

However, such a panic reaction is unwarranted because corrections appear frequently in a bull market as a “reset” before continuation. This is organic and healthy and offers a good opportunity for traders and investors to buy the dip.

Rejection at $52,000 indicates further weakness

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows an apparent downtrend since the previous high at $58,000. This high could be the top for the coming months, a period that may see a more prolonged correction.

However, the price action since this top at $58,000 indicates weakness as every support level flips into resistance, indicating further weakness.

The chart shows these flips, where the $55,000 level was the first one. After that, the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly to the support zone around $45,000. This support zone held and resulted in a strong bounce toward $52,000.

But, unfortunately for the bulls, this level wasn’t broken and instead saw a rejection, confirming further weakness across the market and more downside for BTC price. 

This now paints a clear picture of the critical levels to watch. Ideally, the support zone between $42,500-$44,000 has to hold for further upward momentum. If it fails, further weakness can be expected toward the $37,500-$39,000 level.

But if the $42,500-44,000 support zone holds, higher prices can be expected once Bitcoin breaks above the resistance between $50,000 and $51,000.

The bullish structure is still intact

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView 

While the lower timeframes indicate weakness for BTC/USD, the higher timeframes suggest a healthy correction. The market construction is still very bullish, as the chart above shows.

The previous top was at $42,000, after which the new support was established at $30,000. This last top was easily broken as Bitcoin’s price accelerated to the $58,000 high. Hence, a correction to even $37,000 could be classified as healthy and organic in this type of bull market.

Simply put, as long as BTC holds above the $30,000 low of January 2021, the market can be classified as bullish.

March is often a corrective month

XBT/USD 1-week candle chart. Source: Tradingview

History shows that March isn’t the most bullish month for the cryptocurrency market. In recent years, corrections have been seen in March. Specifically, corrections of 15%-60% happened in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020.

The latest crash was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and could be classified as a “black swan.” Nevertheless, corrections tend to happen in March and this year could also see another pullback.

Therefore, corrections can last for several weeks and are frequently not completed in just one drop. Hence, a correction toward the $35,000-$40,000 is still on the table.

XBT/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The primary indicator to watch for this is the 21-Week MA. Often, corrections tend to move toward this line as a key point for a potential reversal. Therefore, in the coming weeks, this 21-Week MA could provide support in the correction.

Currently, the 21-Week MA is around $28,000, though this should climb up in the coming weeks toward $33,000-35,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/is-bitcoin-at-risk-of-another-drop-below-40k-in-a-historically-corrective-march

Blockchain

Bitcoin At $100,000: Estimating The Chance Of Six Figure BTC In 2021

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Bitcoin price (BTC) reached a new all-time high this week, soaring to almost $65,000 on Wednesday the 14th of April. With Bitcoin’s price now in “blue sky territory” and its market cap sitting comfortably around the $1.17 trillion level, the big question is – just how high will the current bull market push the BTC price this year?

Rounding Up The Most Famous Bitcoin Price Predictions

Here are some of the most famous individuals and institutions in crypto that have gone on record with bullish Bitcoin price calls:

JP Morgan

In March, analysts at major US investment bank, JPMorgan, were reported to be eyeing a Bitcoin price of $130,000 – although no timeframe was provided for their prediction. JPM’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, was vocal in his criticism of Bitcoin in the past. However, the firm’s increasing involvement in crypto projects reflects the growing integration of cryptocurrency within the traditional financial sector.

Related Reading | The Bearish Bitcoin Chart Bulls Definitely Don’t Want To See

MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, is renowned for converting his firm’s cash reserves to Bitcoin and encouraging other corporate leaders to follow suit. At last count, MicroStrategy held over 90,000 BTC, worth approximately $5.5 billion at the time of writing. Unsurprisingly, Saylor is extremely bullish on the BTC price, saying in a March interview that he “can see Bitcoin going to a million… [or] five million.”

Pantera Capital

Pantera Capital, launched in mid-2013 as the original American crypto investment fund, has projected a Bitcoin price of $115,000 before September of 2021. Pantera’s call is based on the Stock to Flow (S2F) model of Bitcoin’s price, which has thus far shown a high degree of predictive power. Given the time-specificity of Pantera’s call as well as their transparency regarding its rational basis, we would consider this the most considered prediction.

bitcoin btcusd

Daily Bitcoin chart showing the bull run since late 2020 until present | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

A Rally-Supportive Economic Environment

Predictions alone, no matter who makes them, aren’t enough to elevate Bitcoin to a six-digit price level. What’s needed are enthusiastic buyers and hodlers, whether they be individual investors or large institutions.

As to the latter, we’ve already alluded to MicroStrategy’s crypto corporate coffers. Perhaps following Saylor’s advice as presented to thousands of corporate representative, Time Magazine recently announced their own acquisition of Bitcoin.

Furthermore, with financial titans like BlackRock and MasterCard recently announcing their involvement in Bitcoin, there can be no doubt of the institutional appetite for » Read more

” href=”https://www.newsbtc.com/dictionary/satoshi/” data-wpel-link=”internal”>Satoshi’s invention.

stock to flow

The stock-to-flow model projects much higher prices for BTC | Source: Digitalik.net

Perhaps the most compelling reason driving investors, big and small alike, into Bitcoin is the expectation – and indeed the observation – of high inflation. With central banks around the world printing billions if not trillions of fresh fiat units as a response to COVID 19, the scene has been set for declining fiat value and rising costs for goods and services.

Related Reading | Coinbase COIN Debuts To A Bloody Bitcoin, But Bullish Structure Remains

With high inflation everywhere except government statistics – steel prices up 3x on the year, for example – it’s no wonder that demand for hard, deflationary money has never been higher.

Featured image from Deposit Photos, Charts from TradingView.com

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-predictions-100000/

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Coinbase’s $86bn Valuation Has Been Grossly Exaggerated by Misleading Media

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Coinbase shares closed at $327 on their Nasdaq debut, giving the crypto exchange an initial market cap of $86bn on a fully diluted basis.

Fully diluted refers to the total number of common shares outstanding and available to trade on the open market after all possible sources of conversion. But some feel this measure gives an inaccurate valuation as it includes options and restricted stock, therefore overstating the number of shares used in the valuation.

In the buildup to the IPO, some analysts expected Coinbase to achieve a $100bn valuation. While its closing valuation wasn’t a million miles away, it was still less than expected.

Coinbase Listing is a Watershed Moment For The Cryptocurrency Industry

Coinbase is the first major crypto company to test the U.S. public market. Its IPO was hailed as a turning point in cryptocurrency going mainstream. Analyst Dan Ives wrote:

“Coinbase is a foundational piece of the crypto ecosystem and is a barometer for the growing mainstream adoption of bitcoin and crypto for the coming years in our opinion.”

» Read more

” href=”https://www.newsbtc.com/dictionary/coin/” data-wpel-link=”internal”>COIN opened at $381 on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. Early on, buyers pushed the price as high as $429, but bears soon took over to dip the price as the day wore on. It ended the session at $327.

Source: COINUSD on TradingView.com

The firm had released some impressive figures before its public debut. It showed a spike in revenue and a doubling of its monthly active users from the previous quarter.

But market research firm New Constructs had already sounded the alarm on a severe overvaluation at $100bn. They believe a valuation this high takes no account of a future squeeze on its transaction margins.

the company has little-to-no-chance of meeting the future profit expectations that are baked into its ridiculously high expected valuation of $100 billion.”

The Actual Valuation Should be $65mn

While Coinbase’s fully diluted valuation came in at $86bn, pretty much in the middle of pre-debut expectations of between $60bn – $100bn, CIO at Arca Jeff Dorman said this figure is grossly overstated.

Dorman slammed the media for “misinformation” and “horrible reporting,” saying they were using the wrong share count. Based on 198mn class A and B shares, Coinbase’s closing valuation should be $64.7mn.

That math is wrong — There are 198mm class A and class B shares o/s, not 261mm. If we use fully diluted share count, then every stock on the planet has infinite shares due to no restrictions on how much stock a company can issue.

On the matter of ever reaching a $100bn valuation, researcher Larry Cermak expects this to happen as long as the bull market continues.

Direct listings almost always trade down in the next few days because of the high float that’s being dumped. As long as the bull market continues, it will eventually recover and go $100B+ IMO. Low volume today is somewhat surprising though.”

At this point, it’s unclear whether an overstated Coinbase market cap is a help or hindrance to crypto. While an overstated valuation is likely to drum up interest, the spin side sees additional pressure on Coinbase to live up to the hype.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/news/coinbases-86bn-valuation-has-been-grossly-exaggerated-by-misleading-media/

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ETH bonanza as three North American Ethereum ETFs approved in one day

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While gaining exposure might still be difficult south of the US-Canada border, Canadian investors will shortly have a host of options to choose from to gain exposure to Ethereum (ETH) via an ETF as regulators have approved three different Ethereum ETFs in a single day. 

Purpose Investments, Evolve ETFs, and CI Global Asset Management were all approved by Canadian regulators to launch Ethereum-backed ETFs today. The ETFs will be the first ETH ETFs in North America, and among the first in the world. 

Some observers noted that all three being approved at once may have been part an effort not to give Purpose an “unfair advantage”. Purpose appeared to gain an edge after the launch of the wildly popular Purpose Investments ETF, the first North American Bitcoin ETF which quickly swelled to $1.3 billion in AUM while competitors waited for approval. Rival Evolve Fund Group’s Bitcoin ETF only managed to attract $100 million in AUM, despite launching only two days later than Purpose and offering 25% less management fees.

In a Tweet, a reporter for Bloomberg said that the CL Galaxy and the Purpose ETF funds will begin trading on 4/20 — a date he thought would please Elon Musk, given it’s marajuana culture connection. Likewise, Evolve’s ETH ETF — which they first filed for in March — will begin trading on the same day.

The Canadian stock market has already demonstrated a significant appetite for exposure to crypto assets. Previous exchange-traded Ethereum products led to market halts on the first day of listing, and Purpose’s Bitcoin ETF cracked $100 million in its first day of trading

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-bonanza-as-three-north-american-ethereum-etfs-approved-in-one-day

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