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How Can The Market Be at An All Time High and There Be A Freight Recession – Part II

In my previous post I outlined why I believe freight is slowing.  Certain signals in the marketplace are telling us employment adds are decreasing, inventories are increasing and the PMI is decreasing.  All of these are signs of a slowing economy.  (For the record, I do not believe by any stretch the economy will contract – it is just we should not get used to GDP growth rates of 3% into the future).  This slowing has resulted in less loads per truck and prices going down.

So, how can the stock market be hitting an all time high?  I believe it is due to 3 reasons (Warning, I know a lot more about freight than I do about investing but here goes):

  1. The alternative investment (10yr as a proxy)
  2. % of the economy which has nothing to do with goods
  3. The Fed.
What is happening:

Let me start off by showing what is actually happening:

This chart compares the Dow Jones Transportation Index to the DJ30 and the S&P500.  This is a one year return graph and ends on June 21.  As of June 21, the DJ30 is up 6.66%, the SPX is up 7.1% and yet the DJT is DOWN 3.91% Bottom line is investors are shunning transports yet still embracing the overall economy.  Why?

The Alternative Investment:

Investors are going to invest.  That is what they do and they have two macro alternatives.  First, they can invest in the “risk” markets (i.e., stocks) or they can invest in what is generally considered the “risk free” or “near risk free” investment.  I will use the 10yr as a proxy for this second grouping.  What we have seen recently is not only a 10 year treasury at multi year lows but we are also hearing the Fed discussing lowering the rates even further.  This will drive investment dollars away from the “risk free” and into the markets. 

It is no coincidence towards the end of last year when the Fed was not only raising rates but also calling for 3 rate hikes in 2019 the stock market tanked.  Investors were deciding to move away from risk assets as the risk free was looking pretty good.  Not so much any more as the 10yr is now bouncing around the 2% level.

The graph to the left is the graph of the 10 year treasury rates as of Friday, June 21.  This movement of rates down has caused money to flow back into the risk asset markets and specifically look at the major move down since mid May.  This is when the Fed made it pretty clear the only action they likely will take is a move down in rates. 

% of The Economy Which Does Not Have Anything to Do with Shippable Goods:

This one is a bit nuanced.  Let’s just look at 30 years ago and think about what it meant for the economy to be growing at 3%.  It was intuitive that the growth had to have much to do with autos, real hard electronics, housing etc. etc.  These are all very “hard” goods which drove the economy. 

Today, when we the economy grows at 3% more of it has to do with finance, services and the infamous FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google – Alphabet).  Only one of these, Amazon, ships anything.  The rest make their money in the “virtual” world.  Very important to the economy but not so important to trucking.  The graph below illustrates this:

Non Shipment Economy

The inverse of this graph is to ask how much of GDP is due to MFG:

Both of these graphs tell the same story.  GDP can grow at a high rate and not have shippable product tendered to carriers.  – Economy grows yet a freight recession sets in. 
The Fed

What else can I say?  The Fed has made a huge 180 degree turn around in the last few months and whether that is due to political pressure or real economics I will leave it to the real economists to figure out. But, reality is, the Fed has signaled rates are going down and they have somewhat backed themselves into a corner as it would be outright lying if they did not do this.  This means more money will continue to go into inflating the asset bubble and less money will go into bonds. 
I hope I have now explained (sorry for the two part length) why the freight recession likely will continue however the economy, as measured by the markets and GDP, will continue to do quite well.  
Summary:
  1. Economy is slowing
  2. Investors have to invest in the market to get any kind of return due to the “risk free” paying so low.
  3. Investors are shunning the transports
  4. This drives the market to records
  5. Less and less of the GDP has to do with “shippable goods”
This is a link to Part 1 of this posting (for those reading on a reader)

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In my previous post I outlined why I believe freight is slowing.  Certain signals in the marketplace are telling us employment adds are decreasing, inventories are increasing and the PMI is decreasing.  All of these are signs of a slowing economy.  (For the record, I do not believe by any stretch the economy will contract – it is just we should not get used to GDP growth rates of 3% into the future).  This slowing has resulted in less loads per truck and prices going down.

So, how can the stock market be hitting an all time high?  I believe it is due to 3 reasons (Warning, I know a lot more about freight than I do about investing but here goes):

  1. The alternative investment (10yr as a proxy)
  2. % of the economy which has nothing to do with goods
  3. The Fed.
What is happening:

Let me start off by showing what is actually happening:

This chart compares the Dow Jones Transportation Index to the DJ30 and the S&P500.  This is a one year return graph and ends on June 21.  As of June 21, the DJ30 is up 6.66%, the SPX is up 7.1% and yet the DJT is DOWN 3.91% Bottom line is investors are shunning transports yet still embracing the overall economy.  Why?

The Alternative Investment:

Investors are going to invest.  That is what they do and they have two macro alternatives.  First, they can invest in the “risk” markets (i.e., stocks) or they can invest in what is generally considered the “risk free” or “near risk free” investment.  I will use the 10yr as a proxy for this second grouping.  What we have seen recently is not only a 10 year treasury at multi year lows but we are also hearing the Fed discussing lowering the rates even further.  This will drive investment dollars away from the “risk free” and into the markets. 

It is no coincidence towards the end of last year when the Fed was not only raising rates but also calling for 3 rate hikes in 2019 the stock market tanked.  Investors were deciding to move away from risk assets as the risk free was looking pretty good.  Not so much any more as the 10yr is now bouncing around the 2% level.

The graph to the left is the graph of the 10 year treasury rates as of Friday, June 21.  This movement of rates down has caused money to flow back into the risk asset markets and specifically look at the major move down since mid May.  This is when the Fed made it pretty clear the only action they likely will take is a move down in rates. 

% of The Economy Which Does Not Have Anything to Do with Shippable Goods:

This one is a bit nuanced.  Let’s just look at 30 years ago and think about what it meant for the economy to be growing at 3%.  It was intuitive that the growth had to have much to do with autos, real hard electronics, housing etc. etc.  These are all very “hard” goods which drove the economy. 

Today, when we the economy grows at 3% more of it has to do with finance, services and the infamous FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google – Alphabet).  Only one of these, Amazon, ships anything.  The rest make their money in the “virtual” world.  Very important to the economy but not so important to trucking.  The graph below illustrates this:

Non Shipment Economy

The inverse of this graph is to ask how much of GDP is due to MFG:

Both of these graphs tell the same story.  GDP can grow at a high rate and not have shippable product tendered to carriers.  – Economy grows yet a freight recession sets in. 
The Fed

What else can I say?  The Fed has made a huge 180 degree turn around in the last few months and whether that is due to political pressure or real economics I will leave it to the real economists to figure out. But, reality is, the Fed has signaled rates are going down and they have somewhat backed themselves into a corner as it would be outright lying if they did not do this.  This means more money will continue to go into inflating the asset bubble and less money will go into bonds. 
I hope I have now explained (sorry for the two part length) why the freight recession likely will continue however the economy, as measured by the markets and GDP, will continue to do quite well.  
Summary:
  1. Economy is slowing
  2. Investors have to invest in the market to get any kind of return due to the “risk free” paying so low.
  3. Investors are shunning the transports
  4. This drives the market to records
  5. Less and less of the GDP has to do with “shippable goods”
This is a link to Part 1 of this posting (for those reading on a reader)

Source: http://10xlogistics.blogspot.com/2019/06/how-can-market-be-at-all-time-high-and_23.html

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‘Overlooked’ Part of Senate Infrastructure Bill Renews Worries From Crypto Lobby

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The $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which passed in the Senate in early August and is expected to be approved by the House, is the gift that keeps on giving.

At first, it was about roads, bridges, and clean water. Then a pay-for provision promised to give American crypto users new tax reporting requirements. And now there’s a new twist.

A report published today by the Proof of Stake Alliance (POSA), an advocacy group that counts Coinbase Custody and Solana as members, details an “overlooked” amendment to the tax code within the 2,700-page bill that will make it a felony to incorrectly report receiving cryptocurrencies, NFTs, or other digital assets.

Writing in his role as an advisor to the POSA, law professor Abraham Sutherland details how the infrastructure bill amends Section 6050I of the tax code. The amended section 6045 that caused so much consternation when it made it through the Senate changed the definition of “broker” to cover those handling cryptocurrencies. 

Industry lobbyists and cryptocurrency advocates such as the think tank Coin Center argued that the bill as written would force Bitcoin miners and validators on other networks to file 1099 forms for the people whose transactions they were processing—even though they lacked the personal information needed to do so.   

Section 6050I, on the other hand, deals with the tax reporting requirements of those who ultimately receive the cryptocurrencies. While Americans must already report their crypto gains to the IRS just as they would with other investments, Sutherland says the amended provision goes much further: They must tell the government who sent it, including reporting social security numbers, when the value of the digital assets is more than $10,000. Not doing so within 15 days constitutes a felony.

This raises at least two issues. First, as Sutherland notes, it’s just as unwieldy as the section 6045 amendment: “This provision demands the impossible because the digital assets might not be ‘received’ from a person whose personally identifiable information can be verified and reported—including cases where the digital assets are not ‘received’ from a person or entity with a tax ID number, period.”

Second, as Sutherland alludes to and as Coin Center Research Director Peter Van Valkenburgh hammered home in a blog post, it might just be unconstitutional. The tax code currently mandates that people report such information to the IRS when they receive $10,000 in cash. That passes Constitutional muster because the bank acts as a third party; otherwise, authorities would need a warrant under the Fourth Amendment. But in cryptocurrency, a peer-to-peer transaction doesn’t have a third party

Writes Van Valkenburgh: “One person to a two person transaction is obligated to collect a load of sensitive information from her counterparty and hand that to government officials without any warrant or reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing.”

Though he writes that Coin Center usually doesn’t “object to equal treatment of cash and cryptocurrencies,” in this case the “provision is a draconian surveillance rule that should have been ruled unconstitutional long ago. Extending it to cryptocurrency transactions would further erode the privacy of law-abiding Americans.”

Sutherland also calls into question the process by which the amended IRS code will become law—via a bill on completely unrelated topics. “A statute creating felony crimes for users of digital assets should be debated openly, not quietly inserted into a spending bill,” he wrote.

Source: https://decrypt.co/81236/overlooked-part-senate-infrastructure-bill-renews-worries-crypto-lobby

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Avalanche (AVAX) bumps to near $70 after reveal of $230 million fundraise

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High-speed blockchain Avalanche jumped to highs of $68.30 today after several influential crypto investors revealed the close of a private funding round involving $230 million worth of AVAX tokens in June, CryptoSlate learned in a release.

The Avalanche Foundation, a non-profit that oversees the development of the Avalanche blockchain, disclosed participants in the multimillion-dollar funding round were led by PolyChain Capital and Three Arrows Capital, and included R/Crypto Fund, Dragonfly, CMS Holdings, Collab+Currency, and Lvna Capital.

What happens to Avalanche now?

Proceeds from the private sale will be used to support the burgeoning Avalanche ecosystem—one that has been positioned as a top contender against Ethereum for its high speed and low fees. 

Part of the funds will be funneled to support DeFi (decentralized finance) projects on Avalanche as well as enterprise applications through grants, token purchases, and other forms of investments.

Avalanche’s smart contract is able to execute Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) contracts, making it possible for developers to ‘reuse’ their codebase if they have a working/testnet product on the Ethereum blockchain.

Converting assets on-chain using a ‘bridge’—a way for two separate blockchain to communicate with and transfer value between each other—are also simple as applications querying the Ethereum network can be adapted to support Avalanche by changing API endpoints and adding support for a new network. 

Meanwhile, the news caused a surge in AVAX prices last night. The token jumped 30% to over $68.30 to set a new all-time high, reaching a $14 billion marketcap and becoming the 12th-most-valuable cryptocurrency by that metric.

At press time, AVAX continues to trade above its 34-period exponential moving average, a metric used by traders that determines asset trends using historic prices. It has been been in a gradual uptrend since breaking the $15 mark in late-July, and has returned several multiples to investors in the past three months alone.

Image: AVAX/USD via TradingView.

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Source: https://cryptoslate.com/avalanche-avax-bumps-to-near-70-after-reveal-of-230-million-fundraise/

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Can NFTs impact the economic livelihood of artists in developing nations?

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TL;DR Breakdown

  • Aversano deployed the first NFT portrait photography.
  • The total sales volume of NFTs in the art segment rose from $64 million to $774 million.
  • NFTs ensure an artist is paid royalty whenever their art is used.

As of July 2021, the NFT industry had garnered an estimated $2.5 billion worth of sales compared to only $13.7 million during Q1 and Q2 of 2020. 

Aversano, an artist known for deploying the first-ever NFT portrait photography, says he sold more than 100 NFT portraits between February and June. He said the sales earned approximately $130,000 within five months. The Twin collection in which he sold the 100 portraits are photographs of twins, which he says are in memory of his fraternal twin.

What are NFTs?

NFTs are non-fungible tokens which are real-life assets that are sold on digital platforms. The viability of NFTs depends on the uniqueness and the utility of possession. This means that tokens can only be relevant to an owner if he can prove ownership of the token. The tokens can range from unique pieces of art from artists to current assets like cars. The digital platform gives an easy and availed proof of ownership.

Non-fugitive assets are made more desirable by the fact that they are unique and one of a kind. This makes them very valuable.

According to Statista, the total sales volume of NFTs in the art segment rose from $64 million to $774 million within a record period of 30-days (August 15 – September 15, 2021). The chart below shows the fluctuation of NFT sales per 30-days period between April and August. 

NFTs sales
NFT sales volume between Apr-Sept by Statista

How can NFTs make artists’ lives better?

As the digital world takes significant steps ahead, more investors try to get a niche to explore the same fruits. When Jack Dorsey sold his first tweet at $2.9m, it started a buzz on and around NFTs. Not only for the amount of money fetched but the ‘absurdity’ of buying a tweet when there are millions of them already. However, there is much more to it. It brought about the concept of owning a one-of-a-kind piece of art which for sure is an advantage to artists.

First, NFTs guarantee immutability to the artist. There is uniqueness where the artist has complete copyrights on his art. This is enabled by the ID or metadata issued to an artist to prove possession of the art. It is offered to give essential data about the piece of art. 

Second, there are no intermediaries during the trading of art on cryptocurrency platforms. Once there is an interested party, they are connected to the individual artist who lays out the asset’s guidelines to change possession. This is advantageous to the artist since transactions are done on his terms. It also keeps in place his profile and reputation as an artist. The artist also cuts the marketing cost and the issue of art brokers.

Next, there is exposure for the artist. When trading NFTs, artists are at ease to do collaborations with other artists. This is a guarantee as the platform is a haven where artists can interact and flourish while teaming up with even more significant expertise in different fields. Apart from collaborations, there is a world market availed. Geographical borders or any particular divisions do not limit the crypto platforms. Once an artist avails art on a digital platform, the piece is available for everybody.

One other factor pulling artists to NFTs is smart contracts. This is a feature that keeps a contract in code form. It works best for decentralized platforms. Smart contracts are programmed to suit an investor’s interest in trade.

For example, smart contracts can be used by artists dealing with NFTs to store data or be used to get royalties each time the piece of art changes possession. This means that the artist keeps reaping from the art long after the sale. A smart contract can be programmed to work without involving a party to set it up time and again.

On the other hand, since the buzz around NFTs began, more people are trying to get into the trade in an attempt of minting. This is leading to flooding in the market and the uniqueness of NFTs diluting. However, this is not a guarantee for the near future failure of NFTs. Artists can reap much from the NFTs.

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Source: https://api.follow.it/track-rss-story-click/v3/tHfgumto13BJ4uqGEejhiVyOSYGFl6uu

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