From the COVID-19 pandemic to mass-scale money printing and social unrest, 2020 was a wild year. Alongside a barrage of newsworthy events, Bitcoin (BTC) also turned in a standout year in the price category, ultimately rising from $3,600 to past $41,950, besting its 2017 all-time high of $19,892.
A number of events, both crypto-specific and mainstream, appeared as catalysts for Bitcoin’s price action. Several crypto industry players weighed in on the events they believe affected BTC’s price action the most in 2020.
Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano labeled Bitcoin’s halving as the event with the greatest effect on the asset’s price action, according to his comments to Cointelegraph. “The incoming daily supply decreased and demand has increased significantly, which has led to an increase in the USD price,” Pompliano said.
Bitcoin’s halving occurred on May 11, 2020. The third such event since the asset’s launch in 2009, BTC’s halving resulted in miners receiving 6.25 BTC for block rewards instead of 12.5 BTC. Previous Bitcoin halvings brought price declines followed by sideways price action, although tremendous upswings eventually occurred after each halving.
The event in 2020 was no exception, as Bitcoin soared past record highs several months after the May event. The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model from analyst Plan B serves as a popular forecasting tool in the crypto space. The model predicts increasing future BTC prices based on halvings decreasing the asset’s incoming supply.
Pierce Crosby, general manager for crypto asset charting platform TradingView, told Cointelegraph about three developments that he believes impacted the value of Bitcoin the most in 2020. The first aspect he noted: “Consumer continued adoption, apparent in Coinbase’s planned IPO.”
Major United States-based crypto exchange Coinbase recently filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for approval to conduct an initial public offering. The move would take the company public, resulting in tradable company shares on the mainstream U.S. stock market. The news actually coincided with moderately downward BTC price action on the day of the development, although Crosby’s comment appears to indicate the IPO as simply a result of underlying and ongoing demand.
The “institutional adoption, seen in MicroStrategy’s treasury re-allocation to Bitcoin” was another rousing event on BTC’s price in 2020 according to Crosby. A slew of large mainstream companies unveiled large Bitcoin positions in 2020. It all began as billionaire hedge funder Paul Tudor Jones revealed his Bitcoin position in May 2020.
In the latter half of the year, business intelligence firm MicroStrategy picked up hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin. Other firms, such as Jack Dorsey’s Square and MassMutual, also publicized BTC purchases as part of a buying trend for big players.
Crosby also said, “the boom of DeFi and the corresponding leveraged products that were built by this space” affected BTC’s price in 2020. Last year, a bevy of DeFi solutions entered the crypto industry, giving participants new ways of leveraging their capital.
Resembling 2017’s ICO bubble at times, decentralized finance moved significant money around in 2020. Related assets saw dramatic price swings, while shady projects also surfaced during the boom. Meanwhile, in line with the hype, Bitcoin rode an upward price trend toward record levels after recovering from its COVID-19-related price drop in March.
Speaking of the pandemic, Cheds, a crypto trader and analyst on Twitter, said COVID-19 steered Bitcoin’s price significantly last year.
“COVID by far had the biggest impact on $BTC #Bitcoin price in 2020, taking it down from 8K down to around 3K briefly.”
In March 2020, amid rapidly rising COVID-19 concerns and prevention measures, mainstream markets and crypto assets fell sharply in price. Bitcoin, however, rebounded more quickly than traditional financial assets. “Without a doubt, it sped up the process of finding a bottom, and since then, we have ripped back up to all-time highs, helped along by news of institutional investment,” Cheds said of the pandemic.
“Events like the public purchases of MicroStrategy and the addition of $BTC to PayPal’s arsenal have added a veneer of legitimacy that was missing, and help pave the way for even more of these types of investments in 2021,” Cheds added. PayPal unveiled the addition of multiple crypto assets to its platform back in October.
2021’s rally is driven by fundamentals, not FOMO
When asked what events had the least effect on Bitcoin’s price, Pompliano said, “most people’s opinion on Twitter,” with a smile. Meanwhile, Crosby pointed toward a detachment of Bitcoin from the political arena. “Very little impact came from politics this year, which is a substantial difference versus previous years,” he said. “We expect the impact of governments to be more visible with Bitcoin in 2021.”
Rounding out the year, the U.S. government proposed a ruling to monitor self-custodied crypto-asset wallets, for which the short comment period recently ended. The SEC also filed a movement against Ripple and its XRP asset in late-December. Both events could signal the beginning of increased government involvement.
Pompliano has often called Bitcoin a non-correlated asset when it comes to other financial instruments. An October 2020 report from Fidelity lends validity to such a view, concluding that Bitcoin holds virtually zero correlation to the price action seen across other markets.
Over the course of 2020, the world gave Bitcoin’s price plenty of headlines to react to. Some news events seemed impactful, while others did not, although definitively proving any direct correlation may be impossible.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The Hard Sell
The prices are low and the panic is high. Is this the time to sell?
If you’ve been around crypto for longer than a couple of months, you’re probably familiar with the feelings that come with your average market-wide correction.
Euphoria fizzling away as that first red candle starts dropping down, down, down. Confidence in a quick recovery giving way to sweaty-palmed anxiety as the correction passes the 10, 20, 30% mark. Is this the big one? We all know what happened on March 13th last year. Finger hovering over the “Sell” button, knowing that if you just pressed it this horrible feeling would go away.
And even worse are the recriminations. How could I have been so blind? How did I let this happen? Why didn’t I sell when the going was good? Will I ever feel joy again?
Unrealised profit and loss
Look, I’m not going to say I told you so, but if there has ever been a market in need of a correction it was the crypto market of the last two months. It wasn’t a question of if your alt was going to do a 50 or 100% day; it was a question of when. Meanwhile, Bitcoin basically tripled its 2017 all-time high over the course of eight weeks, making it (briefly) a trillion dollar asset.
It’s not that bitcoin doesn’t deserve to be in that August club, but more to point out that markets will always revert to the mean, no matter how compelling the background narrative might be. And in the same way that you don’t expect to see an elephant jump over a small apartment block, an asset of bitcoin’s size shouldn’t be tripling in size like it ain’t no thing. Especially not when it’s taken three long, hard years to get back to its previous peak.
Timing is everything
Here’s the thing though: in every other market that humanity has ever created, taking three years to make a new all-time high actually is perfectly reasonable, bordering on suspiciously fast. Investments aren’t supposed to be measured in days or weeks. They’re supposed to take years, if not decades to play out. But the speed, 24/7 relentlessness and hyper-visibility of the crypto markets means it’s very easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. People who bought in at the absolute peak of the last bubble are still up 250% – presuming that they had the patience to hold on for a measly three years.
Nonetheless, selling can produce a real and concrete advantage. Get out near the top and you might be able to buy back in close to the bottom, thereby compounding your gains. (Despite what the people of TikTok Investors would have you believe, this is far harder than it appears.)
More simply though, money is money and when assets are appreciating like crypto assets have recently that can mean getting ahead of your mortgage, or buying a car, or paying for a holiday for your family, or being able to cover rent for the next month. If what you’ve made could make a difference in your life, then it makes complete and total sense to sell some – even if you think the crypto market is going to keep on going up. As the old adage goes, no-one ever went poor from taking profits.
Respect the sell-out
That’s not an invitation or a suggestion to sell it all right now – a good rule of thumb is sell when it feels hard (i.e. on the way up) not when it’s easy (on the way down) – but more to start thinking about what your endgame is. What do you hope to gain from this bull run? How much is enough? And will you be strong enough to start getting out when you reach your target? (Also, on a more prosaic note, what would taking profits mean for your tax?)
These are questions without easy answers, but start planning now and you’re less likely to be swept up in the mania and delirium that marks the real, bloody and unmistakable end of the bull market. And until then? DIAMOND HANDS ENGAGE.
Kraken Daily Market Report for March 02 2021
- Total spot trading volume at $1.68 billion, down from the 30-day average of $2.09 billion.
- Total futures notional at $584.1 million.
- The top five traded coins were, respectively, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Cardano, and Polkadot.
- Strong returns from Curve Dao (+12%), Flow (+5.1%), and Melon (+6.4%).
|March 02, 2021
$1.84B traded across all markets today
Crypto, EUR, USD, JPY, CAD, GBP, CHF, AUD
#####################. Trading Volume by Asset. ##########################################
Trading Volume by Asset
The figures below break down the trading volume of the largest, mid-size, and smallest assets. Cryptos are in purple, fiats are in blue. For each asset, the chart contains the daily trading volume in USD, and the percentage of the total trading volume. The percentages for fiats and cryptos are treated separately, so that they both add up to 100%.
Figure 1: Largest trading assets: trading volume (measured in USD) and its percentage of the total trading volume (March 02 2021)
Figure 2: Mid-size trading assets: (measured in USD) (March 02 2021)
Figure 3: Smallest trading assets: (measured in USD) (March 02 2021)
#####################. Spread %. ##########################################
Spread percentage is the width of the bid/ask spread divided by the bid/ask midpoint. The values are generated by taking the median spread percentage over each minute, then the average of the medians over the day.
Figure 4: Average spread % by pair (March 02 2021)
#########. Returns and Volume ############################################
Returns and Volume
Figure 5: Returns of the four highest volume pairs (March 02 2021)
Figure 6: Volume of the major currencies and an average line that fits the data to a sinusoidal curve to show the daily volume highs and lows (March 02 2021)
###########. Daily Returns. #################################################
Daily Returns %
Figure 7: Returns over USD and XBT. Relative volume and return size is indicated by the size of the font. (March 02 2021)
###########. Disclaimer #################################################
The values generated in this report are from public market data distributed from Kraken WebSockets api. The total volumes and returns are calculated over the reporting day using UTC time.
Vitalik proposes solution to link certain layer-two scaling projects
In an ongoing effort to battle escalating transaction fees while creating a unified ecosystem, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed a solution for a particular type of cross-rollup scaling.
The proposal outlines how two protocols using rollups can communicate with each other while maintaining interconnectivity and composability.
Rollups are layer-two solutions that are essentially smart contract networks that process and store transaction data off the main chain. However, there are a number of different rollup types, with each using unique smart contracts such as optimistic and zero-knowledge.
While a number of DeFi projects have deployed layer-two rollups, such as Loopring and Synthetix, the particulars of the various rollups mean projects are unable to communicate to one another directly on layer-two.
Buterin’s proposal assumes that one rollup can process simple transactions whereas the other has full smart contract support. There are already proposals for transfers between two smart contract enabled protocols using rollups.
To explain how the proposal works, Buterin provides the example of a hypothetical exchange intermediary he called ‘Ivan’ — where Ivan has an account ‘IVAN_A’ on rollup A that he fully controls, and also has some funds deposited in a smart contract ‘IVAN_B’ on rollup B.
The smart contract would be programmed to accept “memos” that include additional data from anyone sending to it in order to secure any future transactions. The transactions create a connecting layer that keeps deposits in all these isolated contracts, allowing rollup A to send to rollup B via this layer.
Buterin suggested that the behavior would work as follows;
“Alice sends a transaction to IVAN_A with N coins and a memo ALICE_B. Ivan sends a transaction sending TRADE_VALUE * (1 – fee) coins through IVAN_B to ALICE_B”
He added that the worst-case behavior would be if Ivan does not send coins to ALICE_B as he is expected to.
Addressing the “worst-case” scenario that could arise as a result of using the proposed situation, Buterin emphasized that Alice would still be able to wait until the transaction on rollup A confirms, find some alternate route to getting coins on rollup B to pay fees, and then simply claim the funds herself.
Responding to the proposal, Alon Muroch pointed out that it worked in a similar way to how banks clear transactions:
“That’s very interesting, similar to how banks clear transactions between themselves. Batching assets into separate “accounts” could have limitations, a solution could be just big pools on either ends and fees split pro-rata.”
Why Mark Cuban is looking forward to Ethereum’s use cases
Google Finance adds dedicated ‘crypto’ tab featuring Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin
Crypto Investment Fund to Sell $750M in Bitcoin for Cardano and Polkadot
This was avoidable – The lost Bitcoin fortunes
Economist warns of dystopia if ‘Bitcoin Aristocrats’ become reality
Inverse Finance seizes tokens, ships code: Launches stablecoin lending protocol
Korean Government To Levy Taxes On Bitcoin Capital Gains Starting 2022
Litecoin, Monero, Dash Price Analysis: 28 February
NBA Top Shot leads NFT explosion with $230M in sales
PARSIQ Integrates Solana Blockchain on its Platform
XRP, STEEM, Enjin Price Analysis: 27 February
Here are 6 DEX tokens that have seen exponential growth in 2021
How KuCoin Shares (KCS) Can Create a Stream of Passive Income
6 Questions for Kain Warwick of Synthetix
3 reasons why Reef Finance, Bridge Mutual and Morpheus Network are rallying
Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, BNB, DOT, XEM, MIOTA
‘Bitcoin could reach $1 million or $1, and may do both of those’
How did Bitcoin lending become so popular?
Polkadot, Cosmos, Algorand Price Analysis: 28 February
What are the risks of trading cryptocurrencies?
Blockchain1 week ago
Ankr adds Eth2 futures (fETH) to its staking system
Blockchain5 days ago
Gemini collaborates with The Giving Block and others, adds donations option
Blockchain1 week ago
Ripple now registered as a Wyoming business
Blockchain1 week ago
Peter Schiff Now Discusses Bitcoin More Often Than His Beloved Gold
Blockchain1 week ago
Former BoE, BoC Governor Mark Carney joins Stripe board of directors
Blockchain5 days ago
NextGen Blockchain Platforms Self-Organize to Win Government Contracts
Blockchain1 day ago
Why Mark Cuban is looking forward to Ethereum’s use cases
Blockchain7 days ago
Optimized Ethereum Mining Settings for Nvidia RTX 3060 Ti, RTX 3070, RTX 3080 and RTX 3090 GPUs