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Have I Already Missed My Time To Buy Bitcoin?

Republished by Plato



It’s easy to see the bitcoin price go up and feel like you’ve missed the boat. However, many individuals and institutions believe that Bitcoin is just now starting to heat up. So what is driving the price of bitcoin so high, and how could it continue to rise beyond these levels? The best place to start is by understanding the backbone of Bitcoin economics: supply and demand.

Supply And Demand

The problem with projecting future prices stems from the difficulty in predicting supply and demand. Bitcoin is unique in that its supply is on a known schedule; it is embedded in software code that cannot be changed by any person or organization. This code states that the new supply of bitcoin is cut in half every four years. The first mining subsidy halving occurred in 2012 when the new supply was cut in half to 25 coins released approximately every 10 minutes. In 2016, it was cut in half again, down to 12.5 new coins created every 10 minutes. In May 2020, the most recent Halving occurred, meaning there are now only 6.25 new coins created every 10 minutes. In short, the new incoming supply of Bitcoin becomes increasingly scarce as time goes on.

Let’s compare the mechanics of Bitcoin with something like the price of cars. If there’s a huge increase in demand for cars, there would initially be a shortage and the price would shoot up. However, the car producers can react by manufacturing more cars. Once this new supply of cars is available, the price will come back down. 

Now, imagine what would happen if the new supply of cars was strictly limited: only 1,000 new cars could be created each year. There simply would not be enough cars to go around, so the price would go up (and not come back down). What if we go even further and cut the annual supply of new cars in half, so that only 500 new cars could be created each year? It may lead to a mania in the price of cars as people start to realize that owning a car is becoming increasingly difficult.

This upward price mania is effectively what happened to bitcoin in 2012 to 2013, 2016 to 2017, and thus far in 2020 to 2021. The supply of bitcoin stays constant for a four-year period. Then, all of a sudden, it is cut in half. The impact is small at first, but as more and more people learn about Bitcoin, there are an increasing number of buyers chasing a decreasing level of new supply.

The exponential growth of bitcoin’s price can be a bit hard to grasp, so let’s see what it looks like with charts. Here’s bitcoin from 2010 to 2014 with the exponential growth phase circled in red:


And here’s another chart showing bitcoin’s price from 2010 to 2018. Notice how the exponential price increase from 2013 (circled in red) now looks insignificant. The 2017 exponential growth phase is circled in blue:

Finally, here’s a chart that catches us up to today’s price levels. The current exponential price increase is circled in green, while the 2013 and 2017 price rises are circled in red and blue, respectively. Notice how the first rise is just a blip on the radar, and the second rise is also starting to look insignificant:

If the price of bitcoin follows its pattern following the previous supply halvings, the blue circle above will soon become almost as tiny as the red circle. This lines up with price predictions from many industry leaders: CitiBank projects the price of bitcoin will reach $318,000, Guggenheim says $400,000, JP Morgan claims $146,000 and the list goes on. 

Isn’t This Too Good To Be True?

Bitcoin may feel too good to be true because it is such a unique opportunity. Almost every new technology is first available to the wealthy and well-connected before everyone else. Televisions, cars and computers were first owned by the ultra-wealthy, only later to be owned by the masses. Similarly, almost every new investment is first available to the top 1 percent. Most companies are first privately funded by venture capitalists and accredited investors, only later to become publicly available via the stock market.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin reverses this trend. It can be acquired by anyone with an internet connection. In some ways, an average person can more easily store their wealth in bitcoin than Jeff Bezos can. While the average person can simply download an app and buy bitcoin, Bezos would likely require a direct relationship with a large bitcoin exchange, as well as a complex plan for securing hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of bitcoin. While not fully available to all of humanity (not everyone has an internet connection), Bitcoin is the most widely available early stage technology in our lifetime, and perhaps in modern history.

Of course, Bitcoin is not a guaranteed success. In its early stages, the internet was not a guarantee, and neither was the printing press. However, Bitcoin’s globally decentralized nature makes it difficult to kill. It has no leader to attack or bribe. It is not a company that can get overleveraged and collapse. It is not reliant on a few key customers, and it cannot be disbanded simply because a world leader doesn’t like it. Bitcoin continues to exist because people and companies across the globe use it and work on it, 24/7, 365.

While global Bitcoin adoption is not a certainty, it is continuing to grow at an exponential pace, both in terms of price and number of users. The internet followed a similar path in its early days. At one point, fewer than 5 percent of people in the world had internet access. Because of these low ownership levels, the internet was slower and less useful than it is today. Currently, around 60 percent of the global population is an active internet user. Right now, global Bitcoin ownership covers less than 5 percent of the world’s population. If the global network effects that escalated the Internet to widespread adoption are similarly boosting Bitcoin toward global ownership, we are not too late to get into Bitcoin at all. In fact, we may still be very early.

This is a guest post by Mitch, founder of YourBitcoin.Expert. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



Crypto Exchange Mistakenly Sold Bitcoin for $6,000: Now Requests Users To Return It

Republished by Plato



What started out as a normal trading day for some PDAX customers led to a favorable turn of fortune, or so it seemed. Their euphoria may have been short-lived by a harsh reality check as the Philippine-based exchange prepares to take legal actions.

Philippine Digital Asset Exchange (PDAX) suffered a flaw that led to bitcoin trading 88% below its actual price. The exchange reported that a surge in trading activity was the cause. At the time, bitcoin was trading north of $50k, but traders were able to scoop some for $6k.

Although PDAX halted operations to fix the glitch, it was a bit too late by then. Some users capitalized on the loophole and withdrew bitcoins out of the exchange.

To avert the massive loss, PDAX has asked traders to return its bitcoin or risk facing legal proceedings. Many users claim to have received messages to this effect.

It remains unclear how the legal proceedings will play for PDAX, with users rightly pointing out that traders’ actions are within the agreed terms and conditions.

Bitcoin Whale Responsible For Glitch?

Large volume transactions have become the order of the day as bitcoin whales step up activity. Their mass transactions often indicate strong bullish signals unless they get hooked while at it.

Reports surfacing on social media led to strong suggestions that the entire fiasco occurred due to an error by a bitcoin whale. who allegedly sold 316,000 BTC for PHP 300k (about $6100) instead of the actual price of PHP 2.3 million ($47,000). This prompted PDAX to cease trading activity and temporarily shut out users.

Users Outraged By Inability To Access Accounts

PDAX’s attempt to control the situation turned out to be counterproductive as it sparked outrage from many users on social media. The downtime, which lasted for 36 hours, left customers furious as they could not access their accounts.

They expressed frustration due to missed trading opportunities and accrued losses from not being able to close positions.

PDAX Clears The Air

PDAX eventually released a comprehensive report addressing the issue. It claimed that an “isolated unfunded order” infiltrated its system and affected the account of its users. It explained further that it had tracked and rectified the glitch and was in the process of fully restoring users’ accounts.

Speaking in a press conference, PDAX CEO Nichel Gaba said:

“It’s very understandable that a lot of users will feel upset they were able to buy what they thought an order was there for Bitcoin at very low prices. But unfortunately, the underlying Bitcoins were never in the possession of the exchange, so there’s never really anything there to be bought or sold, unfortunately.”

The BSP-licensed exchanged assured users that it will continue addressing their concerns and rendering support where necessary.

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Here’s how the Purpose Bitcoin ETF differs from Grayscale’s GBTC Trust

Republished by Plato



Since 2017, investors have been anxiously awaiting a Bitcoin ETF approval as the existence of such a fund was an important symbol of mass adoption and acceptance from the realm of traditional finance. 

On Feb. 18, the Toronto Stock Exchange hosted the official launch of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF and the fund quickly absorbed more than $333 million in market capitalization in just two days.

Now that the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF is here, investors are curious about how it will compete with Grayscale Investments GBTC fund. On Feb. 17, Ark Investment Management founder and CEO Cathie Wood said the likelihood that U.S. regulators will approve a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund has gone up.

Although exchange-traded funds (ETF) and exchange-traded notes (ETN) sound quite similar, there are fundamental differences in trading, risks, and taxation.

What is an exchange-traded fund?

An ETF is a security type that holds underlying investments such as commodities, stocks, or bonds. It often resembles a mutual fund, as it is pooled and managed by its issuer.

ETFs have become a $7.7 trillion industry, growing by 65% in the last two years alone.

The most recognizable example is the SPY, a fund that tracks the S&P 500 index, currently managed by State Street. Invesco’s QQQ is another EFT that tracks U.S.-based large-capitalization technology companies.

More exotic structures are available, such as the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ($SCO). Using derivatives products, this fund aims to offer two times the daily short leverage on oil prices.

What is an exchange-traded note?

Exchange-traded notes (ETN) are similar to an ETF in that trading occurs using traditional brokers. Still, the difference is an ETN is a debt instrument issued by a financial institution. Even if the fund has a redemption program, the credit risk relies entirely on its issuer.

For example, after Lehman Brothers imploded in 2008, it took ETN investors more than a decade to recoup the investment.

On the other hand, buying an ETF gives one direct ownership of its contents, creating different taxation events when holding futures contracts and leveraging positions. Meanwhile, ETNs are taxed exclusively upon sale.

GBTC does not offer conversion or redemption

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) is the absolute leader in the cryptocurrency market, with $35 billion in assets under management.

Investment trusts are structured as companies — at least in regulatory form — and are ‘closed-end funds.’ Thus, the number of shares available is limited and the supply and demand for them largely determines their price.

Investment trust funds are regulated by the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), therefore outside the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authority.

GBTC shares cannot easily be created, neither is there an active redemption program in place. This tends to generate significant price discrepancies from its Net Asset Value, which is the underlying BTC fraction represented.

An ETF, on the other hand, allows the market maker to create and redeem shares at will. Therefore, a premium or discount is usually unlikely if enough liquidity is in place.

An ETF instrument is far more acceptable to mutual fund managers and pension funds as it carries much less risk than a closed-ended trust like GBTC. Retail investors may not have been aware of the possibility that GBTC trades below net assets value. Thus the recent event might further pressure investors to move their position to the Canadian ETF.

To sum up, an ETF product carries a significantly less risk due to greater transparency and the possibility to redeem shares in the case of shares trading at a discount.

Nevertheless, the impressive GBTC market capitalization clearly states that institutional investors are already on board.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.


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Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, BNB, DOT, XEM, MIOTA

Republished by Plato



Bitcoin (BTC) price has been correcting in the past few days and traders are curious to know whether this is a minor pullback or the start of a deeper decline. The problem is that no one has a crystal ball and analysts can only point to critical support levels that may hold based on historical data and evidence. 

However, in a bear phase, the price tends to slip below key support levels as traders panic and sell out of fear, similar to how the price exceeds the upside targets during a bull run as traders buy due to FOMO.

March has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, which suggests seasonal traders may prefer to wait and watch rather than jump to buy on dips. This lack of demand may be one of the reasons for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium dipping into the negative over the past week.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

However, not all the data is bearish. On Feb. 26, Moskovski Capital CEO Lex Moskovski pointed out that Bitcoin miners positions turned positive on Feb. 26 for the first time since Dec. 27. Adding to this, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the large Coinbase outflows in the past few days suggest that institutions are still accumulating at lower levels.

This data seems to be inconclusive and does not provide an immediate picture of whether the advantage is with the bulls or the bears. Let’s study the charts of the top-5 cryptocurrencies that may outperform in the next few days.


Bitcoin has broken below the 20-day exponential moving average ($47,441), which is the first indication of the start of a deeper correction. The next critical support is the 50-day simple moving average at $41,066. The price has not closed below this support since Oct. 9, hence the level assumes significance.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are likely to defend the 50-day SMA aggressively. If the price rebounds off this support and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest the sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips.

However, the flat moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint suggest the bulls are losing their grip.

If the bears sink the price below the 50-day SMA, it will indicate that supply exceeds demand and traders are booking profits in a hurry. Such a move could pull the price down to the Feb. 8 intraday low of $38,000.

A break below this support will be a huge negative as the next support is at $32,000 and then $28,850.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears are in control. The price is now approaching the critical support at $41,959.63.

If the price rebounds off this support, the bulls will try to push the price above the 20-EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating the dips aggressively. The BTC/USD pair may then rise to the 50-SMA and then $52,000.

Conversely, if the $41,959.63 support breaks and the bears flip it to resistance, then a deeper correction is likely.


Binance Coin (BNB) has been in a corrective phase since Feb. 20, which shows that traders are booking profits after the sharp up-move on Feb. 19. However, the pace of the fall has been gradual since Feb. 25, indicating that traders are not panicking.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price has currently dropped to the 20-day EMA ($194) where the buyers may step in. If the price rebounds off this support and breaks above the downtrend line, the BNB/USD pair may again attract buying from short-term traders. That could push the price to $280 and then to $300.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. However, if the bears sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that supply exceeds demand, The pair could then correct to $167.3691 and then $118.

BNB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a descending triangle pattern that will complete on a breakdown and close below $189. If that happens, it will suggest that the top is in place and the pair could then drop to $118.

Conversely, if the bulls defend the support at $189, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive as the bulls are buying on dips to strong support levels. A breakout and close above the downtrend line will invalidate the bearish setup and that may result in a rally to $280.


Polkadot (DOT) is correcting in an uptrend. The long tail on the Feb. 23 and Feb. 26 candlestick suggests that the bulls are attempting to defend the 20-day EMA ($30.49). However, the long wick on the rebound on Feb. 27 shows that demand dries up at higher levels.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is dropping towards the center, which suggests the bullish momentum is weakening. However, during the recent bull run, the DOT/USD pair has repeatedly taken support at the 20-day EMA.

If the price again rebounds off the 20-day EMA and the bulls push the price above $35.6618, the pair may retest the all-time high at $42.2848. A break above this resistance could result in a rally to $50.

This bullish view will invalidate if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $25.7817. If that happens, the pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($22.33). 

DOT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the price is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle. If the bears can sink the price below the support line of the triangle, the pair could drop to $25.7817 and then to the pattern target at $18.70.

The downsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest a minor advantage to the bears in the short term. But if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will try to push the price above the triangle. If they succeed, the pair may rise to $42.2848.


The bulls defended the 20-day EMA ($0.475) on Feb. 26, which shows that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls are currently attempting to resume the uptrend in NEM (XEM).

XEM/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping moving averages and the RSI above 63 suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside. If the bulls can drive the price above $0.5051, the XEM/USD pair could rally to $0.7637. A breakout of this resistance could open the doors for an up-move to $0.9607.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $0.5051, the pair may consolidate for a few days before starting the next trending move. A break and close below the 20-day EMA will suggest the start of a deeper correction.

XEM/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the price is stuck between $0.439 and $0.63 for the past few days. Both moving averages are sloping up marginally and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which suggests a minor advantage to the bulls.

If the bulls can propel the price above $0.63, the pair may rally to $0.763 and then to $0.821. On the contrary, if the price breaks below the moving averages, the pair may drop to the $0.439 support. If this support also cracks, the correction may extend to $0.346 and then to $0.277.


MIOTA has been in a corrective phase since topping out at $1.554775 on Feb. 19. While the pullback has been sharp, the positive sign is that the bulls have been successfully defending the 20-day EMA ($1.09) for the past few days.

MIOTA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is also trading just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Attempts by the bulls and the bears to assert their supremacy have failed in the past few days.

This equilibrium may tilt in favor of the bulls if they can push and sustain the price above the overhead resistance at $1.30. In such a case, the MIOTA/USD pair may rally to $1.554775.

On the other hand, if the bears sink the price below $0.90, a fall to the 50-day SMA ($0.74) is possible.

MIOTA/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows the formation of a symmetrical triangle, which generally acts as a continuation pattern. Both moving averages are gradually turning down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to the bears.

The pair has broken below the support line of the triangle but the bulls are attempting to arrest the decline and push the price back into the triangle. If they succeed, it will suggest buying at lower levels. The bulls will gain the upper hand after the pair sustains above the triangle.

However, if the price turns down from the current levels, it may signal the start of a deeper correction.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.


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