Will April bring rain or more sun for bitcoin? The weekend provided few hints as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization began the new month around late March levels as investors considered recent developments – bank failures, inflation, and crypto-focused government initiatives – that could push prices higher or lower.

Bitcoin was last trading at $28,045 USD, down 1.3% in the last 24 hours. After a rocky previous two weeks in which markets teetered at times but always seemed to snap back over the $28,000 line, it surged nearly 21% in March.

In an email to CoinDesk, Joe DiPasquale, CEO of crypto asset management BitBull Capital, said, “Bitcoin has stayed resilient over the previous week or two, resulting in a general increase in market sentiment.”

Bitcoin was trading above its 200-day moving average, which DiPasquale described as “historically a significant indication of bullish market activity.”

But he also expressed concern about Bitcoin’s future, referring to “the $32K to $36K range…as an area of interest on the upside while $18K to $20K…a significant range on the downside.”

Ether was also marginally higher than the previous day, changing hands at $1,788, down 1.6% but still comfortably within its two-week range. Ethereum developers are now anticipating the Shanghai upgrade, which is set to take place on April 12 and will herald Ethereum’s entire shift to a proof-of-stake (PoS) network, allowing staked ETH withdrawals. Other cryptocurrencies in the top 25 by market capitalization were mostly in the red.

Arbitrum’s layer 2 blockchain token, ARB, just plummeted 7.4% to trade at $1.19. The drop coincided with a backlash in the Arbitrum community over how the Arbitrum Foundation – a centralized company tasked with promoting Arbitrum’s ostensibly decentralized ecosystem – held a “ratification” vote on decisions it had already made, including sending nearly $1 billion in tokens to itself. In response to community pressure, the foundation said on Sunday that it will divide its contentious governance package into a series of separate votes.

DOGE and SHIB, two popular meme coins, have lately dropped 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively. The CoinDesk Market Index, which measures the overall performance of the crypto markets, was recently down 1.2%. Stock markets ended the first quarter on a strong note, with the tech-focused Nasdaq jumping 1.7% and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) advancing 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively.

This week, investors will get access to new employment and productivity data to determine whether the U.S. economy is contracting as recent indicators imply or accelerating. The U.S. Census Bureau will disclose February durable goods orders on Tuesday, with a 1% month-over-month fall expected, while the U.S. The Labor Department will provide March nonfarm payrolls, which are predicted to increase by 225,000, as well as the monthly unemployment rate, which is expected to remain at 3.6%. A robust jobs market has played prominently in central bankers’ discussions about the economy’s continued strength, which usually leads to higher inflation readings.

Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global FX managing director and chief market strategist, told CoinDesk TV that “the financial stress that we saw earlier this month is fading.” “This is allowing the market to focus on two things, which was prior to the banking difficulties,” he said, cautioning. “One is that the labor market remains rather strong, and inflation is too high for the Fed.”