OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Major central banks’ monetary policy decisions are the focus of this week; we will have the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, 19 March, the US Fed on Wednesday, 20 March, and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday, 21 March.

The major policy change is likely to come from BOJ as new fundamental data (better than expected wage hike for Japanese employees) and more hawkish speeches made by key policymakers in the past weeks are supportive of a rate hike after having a short-term negative interest rate at -0.1% since 2016. Next up, the Fed FOMC’s latest “dot plot” projection will be the key focus as market participants are expecting no change in the Fed funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%.

After the latest slew of inflationary data in the US that indicates that the inflationary trend is not as soft as what Fed officials wanted it to be, there is an increased risk that the latest projection of the Fed funds rate may only indicate two interest rate cuts for 2024, a reduction from three interest rate cuts penciled in the prior “dot plot” in the December 2023 FOMC meeting.

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