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ETH Recovers 15% After Tumbling To Almost $300 (Ethereum Price Analysis)

Ethereum recovered 15% today after dropping almost as low as $300 on Binance. The coin has been on a freefall in September but recently bounced from the .618 Fib Retracement. Against Bitcoin, ETH dropped as low as 0.0311 BTC but managed to close the daily candle above the 0.0329 BTC support (.5 Fib). ETH/USD: Etheruem […]

The post ETH Recovers 15% After Tumbling To Almost $300 (Ethereum Price Analysis) appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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  • Ethereum recovered 15% today after dropping almost as low as $300 on Binance.
  • The coin has been on a freefall in September but recently bounced from the .618 Fib Retracement.
  • Against Bitcoin, ETH dropped as low as 0.0311 BTC but managed to close the daily candle above the 0.0329 BTC support (.5 Fib).

ETH/USD: Etheruem Bulls Attempting To Stall Freefall

Key Support Levels: $324, $300, $280.
Key Resistance Levels: $355, $364, $380.

Etheruem has been in a freefall since the start of September as it rolled over from $490 to reach as low as $308 this weekend. On the way down, the coin fell beneath support at $438, $400, $364 (2019 High), and $355 (.5 Fib).

More specifically, Ethereum found reliable support at $324 when it rebounded from the .618 Fib Retracement there. The bulls have since pushed higher as the coin hits resistance at $355.

All eyes now rest at $324 as a break beneath this level could see Ethereum headed toward $300 in the coming week.

ETH/USD 4HR Chart. Source: TradingView

ETH-USD Short Term Price Prediction

Looking ahead, if the buyers can break $355, immediate resistance lies at $364 (2019 High). Above this, resistance lies at $380 (bearish .382 Fib Retracement), $400, and $410.

On the other side, if the sellers head lower, support first lies at $324 (.618 Fib Retracement). Beneath this, support lies at $320, $300, and $280 (.786 Fib Retracement). This is followed by support at a 4-month old rising trend line (dotted line).

The 4HR RSI shows the momentum remains in the bearish favor, which suggests that there is still some downside action on the way.

ETH/BTC: Bulls Defend .5 Fib Retracement

Key Support Levels: 0.0329 BTC, 0.032 BTC, 0.0311 BTC.
Key Resistance Levels: 0.0347 BTC, 0.0352 BTC, 0.0361 BTC.

Etheruem has also been in freefall against Bitcoin. The coin rolled over from 0.04 BTC at the start of the month to reach as low as 0.0311 BTC (.618 Fib Retracement) yesterday.

Luckily, the bulls quickly bounced from the 0.0311 BTC support to allow yesterday’s daily candle to close above the .5 Fib Retracement at 0.0329 BTC. ETH has since increased as it trades at 0.032 BTC.

ethbtc-sep6
ETH/BTC Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

ETH-BTC Short Term Price Prediction

Looking ahead, if the buyers continue higher, the first level of resistance lies at 0.0347 BTC. This is followed by resistance at 0.0352 BTC, 0.0361 BTC (March 2019 High), and 0.0376 BTC.

On the other side, the first level of support lies at 0.0329 BTC (.5 Fib Retracement). Following this, support is expected at 0.032 BTC (downside 1.272 Fib Extension), 0.0311 BTC (.618 Fib Retracement), and 0.0305 BTC (100-days EMA & downside 1.618 Fib Extension).

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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.


Source: https://cryptopotato.com/eth-recovers-15-after-tumbling-to-almost-300-ethereum-price-analysis/

Blockchain

US House Passes $1.9 Trillion COVID-19 Relief Package, $1,400 Direct Check Provisions Included

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This past weekend, the US House of Representatives passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, sending the piece of legislation to the Senate for a vote.

Some of the notable parts of the bill include increased funding for vaccine distribution and schools, direct funding to state and local governments, and $1,400 checks to Americans making less than $75,000 annually. While this aid is desperately needed by the American people, it brings up larger points about the direction the financial system is headed.

Sending out the Checks

Direct stimulus checks were one of the biggest campaign-promises from the Democrats during the Georgia Runoff Elections, and it seems that the US Government might be one step closer to delivering on that promise.

The bill, which includes a minimum wage increase to $15 per hour, passed in the House with a 219-212 vote down party lines. Despite support from 76% of voters, not a single Republican representative voted for the bill, along with two Democrats who broke with the party to vote no.

However, the current iteration of the bill is unlikely to be the version that President Biden will sign. Procedural roadblocks and a bit of Democrat inaction are preventing the minimum wage increase from passing the Senate, and more than likely, the minimum wage provisions will be removed. The bill will be sent back to the House to be voted on again, without the minimum wage increase, before landing on Biden’s desk. We are now over a month into the Biden presidency, and many Americans are wondering where those “Day One” payments are.

This newest relief bill, if passed, will be the third major stimulus bill passed by the United States government since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. It comes after the December 2020 stimulus package, which extended the eviction moratorium, additional PPP loans, $600 direct payments to Americans, in addition to the previous $6.2 trillion CARES Act, which was passed in March of last year. However, the Federal Reserve pumping money into the economy does have repercussions, some felt rather quickly.

Money Printer Go Brrrr

The stimulus last year contained nearly $4 trillion getting pumped in to prop up various top financial institutions, sending waves throughout the international currency markets. The US Dollar started losing value shortly after the bill was signed into law and has been on the decline ever since. Since March of last year, the US Dollar has fallen 10.5% and 10.3% to the British Pound and Euro, respectively. While the new stimulus bill is considerably smaller, it is still likely it will affect Dollar in the coming months.

Worries regarding the devaluation of the dollar are nothing new, however. Cryptocurrency users have long pointed out the issues with the state being able to effectively print infinite money.

Bitcoin and other digital currencies have long touted the advantages of having a provably limited supply, where the minting of new coins is an algorithmic process that is defined in advance. And it seems like investors believe those types of systems may have some benefits.

As the major economies around the world continue to struggle, people may start looking towards cryptocurrencies as a safer place to hold their wealth rather than continuing to let it devalue.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/us-house-passes-1-9-trillion-covid-19-relief-package-1400-direct-check-provisions-included/

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Cboe Files With the US SEC Again to List VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF

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Yet another attempt for a US-approved Bitcoin ETF is on the horizon coming from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe). The organization’s filing with the SEC aims to build on a previous S-1 filing initiated by VanEck. 

  • CryptoPotato reported in late 2020 that the US investment giant with about $50 billion in AUM, VanEck, has filed for its latest S-1 form with the SEC to establish a Bitcoin ETF called The VanEck Bitcoin Trust.  
  • The company’s application indicated that the ETF’s shares would be traded on the Cboe BZX Exchange if approved. 
  • Although the Commission has not issued a formal response yet, Cboe has interfered with the application by filing a proposal of its own. 
  • It works as an addition to the previous attempt as the proposal “builds on VanEck’s earlier S-1 filing” and “represents the next steps in bringing what could be the first US Bitcoin ETF to market.” 
  • Furthermore, the filing reads that such a product would “present certain advantages for retail investors compared to buying spot bitcoin directly. The most notable advantage is the use of the Custodian to custody the Trust’s bitcoin assets.” However, the document didn’t reveal the name of the custodian.
  • The regulator has yet to approve a Bitcoin ETF in the US as it has rejected dozens of applications so far. VanEck alone has a couple of attempts in the past, but each ended with a withdrawal from the company. 
  • While the US has failed to approve a product tracking the performance of the primary cryptocurrency, the nation’s northern neighbor did so earlier this year. 
  • Canada’s Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) approved a filing by Purpose Investments in February, and the product accumulated more than $400 million in its first few weeks of existence.  
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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/cboe-files-with-the-us-sec-again-to-list-vanecks-bitcoin-etf/

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Blockchain

No, Goldman Sachs isn’t a bearish indicator for Bitcoin

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Peter Brandt, a popular veteran trader and CEO of proprietary trading firm Factor LLC, recently gave his thoughts on Goldman Sachs potentially restarting its cryptocurrency desk.

On Dec. 21, 2017, a similar Bloomberg piece stated that Goldman Sachs would set up a cryptocurrency trading desk, although the bank was “still trying to work out security issues.”

Although Brandt’s chart seems significant, one needs to understand that such speculation had been ongoing for a couple of months. Wall Street Journal already covered Goldman Sachs’ intention to do this on Oct. 2, 2017.

Even if we disregard the exact date, Goldman Sachs apparently ditched those plans to launch its Bitcoin (BTC) trading desk. But, more importantly, there aren’t many similarities between the 2017 bull run and the current market in terms of their structure.

Bitcoin market cap, volume late-2017, USD billion. Source: TradingView

Take notice of how BTC volume soared from a $2 billion average daily volume in November 2017 to $14.6 billion by year-end, a seven-fold increase. The incoming retail demand was so impressive that it caused Binance, Bitfinex, and Bittrex exchanges to reject new users temporarily.

Binance accounts were even sold by users directly to other users at the time when no new sign-ups were being accepted. In other words, there is currently no retail frenzy in Bitcoin similar to what happened in late 2017. In fact, the current bull cycle appears to be driven by institutions that are seemingly scooping up BTC on every dip

Bitcoin market cap, volume, USD billion. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the $66 billion daily average traded volume seen on Feb. 22, 2021, as Bitcoin’s market capitalization peaked at $1.09 trillion, has been relatively flat for the previous six weeks.

Therefore, an experienced technical analyst such as Brandt should have added the caveat that volume is the most relevant market participation indicator (which he frequently emphasizes in his other analysis). 

To settle this difference for good, one needs to understand the basics of futures markets. Derivatives exchanges charge either perpetual futures longs (buyers) or shorts (sellers) a fee every eight hours to keep a balanced risk exposure. This indicator, known as the funding rate, will turn positive when longs are the ones demanding more leverage.

Bitmex BTC perpetual futures weekly funding rate, late-2017. Source: TradingView

As the above chart indicates, buyers were willing to pay up to 40% per week to leverage their long positions. This is entirely unsustainable and a sign of extreme optimism. Any market downturn would have caused cascading liquidations, with the BTC price accelerating to the downside.

BitMEX BTC perpetual futures weekly funding rate. Source: TradingView

Such exorbitant rates no longer exist, albeit the current 4% weekly funding rate has been the highest since June 2019. Nevertheless, scales of magnitude lower than late-2017 outrageous retail-driven long leverage frenzy.

Lastly, one should factor in that December 2017 marked the launch of CME and CBOE futures contracts. As Cointelegraph astutely put back then: This unprecedented event could have a significant impact on the Bitcoin economy.” In retrospect, this seems to have been the peak euphoria signal the bears were waiting for. Thus, Goldman Sachs balking was likely the effect, not the cause. 

But while Brandt has become well-known in the cryptocurrency space for anticipating the 80%+ correction after the 2017 Bitcoin price top, his track record has been less impressive in recent times. 

So to sum up, there is zero evidence to support Peter Brandt’s theory besides a single event that happened once in the 11 years of Bitcoin trading. Not to mention that the 2017 Goldman Sachs cryptocurrency trading desk rumors had been going for a while.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/no-goldman-sachs-isn-t-a-bearish-indicator-for-bitcoin

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