- Weighted Social Sentiment indicator was used to analyze ETH and other altcoins.
- Based on the data, traders are currently exhibiting fear.
- However, current negative social sentiment does not mean the same buying opportunity as last year.
Recently, markets have experienced a dip, and traders are usually panicking and hoping for the decline to stop. The volatility of the crypto industry is often intense. Still, at times of sideways consolidation, there is more market anxiety as investors speculate. Whereas, a similar sentiment is happening to Ethereum and the rest of the Altcoins.
Ryan Selkis, popular crypto commentator and Messari Founder shared the same view on the market. He tweeted,
Honestly I’m reading the trader tweets at this point in real time. Doesn’t change my long term thesis, but does impact my mid-term risk management.
Generally speaking though, BULL
— 0xRyanSelkis (@twobitidiot) May 30, 2021
With that being said, the Weighted Social Sentiment indicator was brought up to analyze the altcoins. To understand further, this indicator combines the positive/negative commentary, and multiply by the amount of social volume. Generally, prices top out when this gets too high, and bottoms when getting too low.
Based on the data, traders are currently exhibiting fear and there is some caution present in market conditions. Most coins haven’t registered instant recovery, and it has led to the drop of weighted social sentiment.
Historically, such market periods have also been a profitable buying opportunity. While some altcoin traders buy at the current market prices, it might be more reasonable to hold for now. More so, considering Ethereum to be the major flag-bearer of the Altcoins, it shows a negative sentiment as of writing.
Currently, Ethereum and other Altcoins have surged past their previous highs. Cardano registered 10x gain since then, and Polkadot entered the top 10 crypto ranking. Meanwhile, MATIC is on a tear, and Uniswap is leading the DEXs revolution. Buying and Selling volumes are soaring aggressively for these assets. Plus, we have already gone through one major bull cycle.
Therefore, the current negative social sentiment does not mean the same buying opportunity that we experienced last year. It is simply because most Altcoins have higher realized values at the moment.
It might be adventurous to take a chance with Altcoin last year, but traders need to be careful before buying now. The market does not scream bullishness yet, so it is better to wait for now and look for bull confirmations.
Cardano: Can this cushion the mounting bearish pressure?
Cardano has garnered much attention from the crypto community due to constant network upgrades over the past few months. After the successful Mary hard fork, Cardano now aims at bringing smart contract to its system via the highly anticipated Alonzo upgrade. Its first-ever smart contract written in Plutus went live on the Alonzo Testnet a week ago.
While these developments were certainly immune and separate from a bearish broader market, its native cryptocurrency, ADA, was not.
Weekly losses piled up to over 30% as sellers ramped up pressure in the ADA market. The cryptocurrency suffered a sharper decline once a breakout above $1.61 was rejected during the last week of trade.
Cardano Daily Chart
Since the broader market crash, ADA has been unable to rise above its upper ceiling of $1.88. Bullish momentum fizzled out as ADA failed to breach this resistance and sellers have dictated market movement since. Its latest attempt at a revival came via a breakout attempt above $1.61 but the 20-SMA acted as a resistance mark and denied further upside. With prices nosediving further over the last 24 hours, focus now shifted to its 19 May swing low of $0.95.
ADA was on a tight rope as it approached a defensive mark of $0.95. This region not only formed a support mark ranging all the way to early Feb, but was also bolstered by the presence of the 200 Simple Moving Average line. The Relative Strength Index moved in the oversold region and a reversal was expected over the coming days. Stochastic RSI even showed a bullish crossover and suggested that the trend could shift in favor of buyers.
If a reversal is triggered at $0.95, ADA could witness an ascent back towards $1.15. Visible Range’s point of control lay within this area and an extended rise was unlikely. However, traders must also be wary of breakdown as well. Failing to cut losses at $0.95 could result in a further 30% decline towards $0.673. According to Awesome Oscillator’s red bars, such a move was not within the realms of possibility.
With losses accumulating in the market, ADA now resorted to its defensive line of $0.95. The 200-SMA moved within this zone and strengthened its defensive capabilities. A temporary pickup towards $1.15 can be expected once buyers return to the broader market but the threat of an extended sell-off cannot be discounted as well.
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Eswar Prasad: BTC Needs to Solve These Three Issues to Be Truly Effective
A professor at Cornell University believes that bitcoin can never accomplish all it has set out to do unless it manages to get past three big hindrances. According to Eswar Prasad, professor of economics at the educational institution, bitcoin still suffers from several flaws that are preventing it from being stronger than many of its altcoin cousins.
Eswar Prasad: BTC Still Has a Way to Go
In an interview, Prasad points to the idea that bitcoin mining is extremely expensive and hazardous to the environment. This is an argument we have heard time and time again over the past few months. Everyone from Kevin O’Leary of “Shark Tank” fame to Elon Musk – the South African entrepreneur behind billion-dollar companies such as SpaceX and Tesla – have said that bitcoin mining is simply too dangerous for Mother Earth to carry on.
As a means of making themselves more appealing than bitcoin, Prasad says that many cryptocurrencies which came after BTC have looked at the currency’s infrastructure and worked to ensure their mining operations are nowhere near as energy driven.
For example, Ethereum has already implemented a new method of mining it is calling “proof of stake,” which is allegedly built to limit the amount of computing power necessary to extract new units from the network. In fact, according to the Ethereum Foundation, the process requires approximately 99 percent less energy than before.
That is going to be much less energy intensive, and it could deliver a lot of the benefits that bitcoin was supposed to deliver. It could also make transactions much cheaper and quicker.
Another issue he says bitcoin needs to solve is its anonymity. Many believe that bitcoin is an anonymous currency, though according to Prasad, this is not entirely true. To prove this, he points to a recent incident in which the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was able to intercede and prevent a bitcoin-based ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline. He says they would not have been able to do this if bitcoin was as anonymous as people claim.
The main idea of bitcoin… was to provide pseudonymity, but it turns out that if you use bitcoin a lot, and especially if you use bitcoin to get any real goods and services, then it becomes possible eventually to link your address or your physical identity to your digital identity.
In the long run, he says that Monero and Zcash are far better alternatives as privacy coins.
Volatility Prevents Its Use as a Currency
Lastly, he claims that bitcoin does not work well as a currency given that it is so volatile. He comments:
So, you could take a bitcoin to a store and one day, get a cup of coffee and another day, with the same bitcoin, be able to treat yourself to a lavish meal. That does not work well for the medium of exchange.
Breaking down the 2 sides of the Ethereum price argument
The crypto market has continued bleeding, Ethereum’s price has dropped to the $2000 level based on data from coinmarketcap.com. Ethereum’s price has dropped over 20% in the past week and this may be a result of the increased selling pressure. The trade volume was up over 50% in the past 24 hours and this was indicative of the selling pressure. The price is currently over 50% away from the ATH of $4363, a month ago and despite that, it is likely to recover since the demand has increased despite the drop in price.
The two sides of the ETH argument:
1. ETH is undervalued below $3000 and the bullish break is close since accumulation has increased below $2200, and
If we follow ETH‘s price, based on the chart and the resistance, since the resistance is at the $2200 level currently, there is a possibility of a 15% drop in price. Buying at this level is likely to lead to a loss in the short term if the selling pressure continues to rise. However, once the price is up, and rallies back, it may face challenges from short-term resistance up at $2,275.
If we get back to that level, there’s a 13% trade to be had. Other factors that indicate that demand is rising are the out-of-range liquidity of stablecoins in ETH markets. A metric that supports the opposite narrative was the number of addresses, hitting its highest point in the past 5 months.
The number of addresses currently in loss based on the 7-day moving average. The five-month high is 6.1 Million based on data from Glassnode. Based on the above metrics, ETH’s price may drop to the $1800 level, however, the demand is on the rise and despite addresses running losses, the trade volume supports the likelihood of a price rally.
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