Connect with us

Blockchain

Cryptocurrencies — The New Frontier

Python, Mean-Variance Analysis, Efficient Frontier and how cryptocurrencies push the boundaries

Republished by Plato

Published

on

First, we need to import cryptocurrency price data that we can add to that of the 30 US stocks we have analysed so far. In this analysis, I focus on four of the most well-known and biggest cryptocurrencies (in terms of market capitalisation): Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether and Litecoin.

Plotting the normalised time series of the cryptocurrencies’ prices over time look like this:

A few observations regarding the above time series:

  1. In normalised terms, Ethereum experienced extreme spikes in 2018.
  2. The y-label ticks are in increments of 10,000 (compare that to the y-axis of the stock prices time series in Part 1!).
  3. It appears as though Litecoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin tend to move together (i.e. are correlated) but Tether shows no correlation, or even movement.

Because the time of normalisation in the above graph is August 6, 2015 (which is the first day that Ethereum prices were included on Yahoo Finance), a time when cryptocurrencies were extremely novel and at very low prices, the scale of the y-axis goes all the way up to 50,000. The starting price for Ethereum is $2.77 and in 2018 it reached a maximum of $1,396.42, which is almost 504 times the starting price. This is clearly a very special case and I will comment on this later on.

The above time series shines a light on a rule of thumb that is intuitive to any investor (but arguably also has broader applications in life), which is that higher returns tend to come with higher risks. The returns that one could have experienced from investing in cryptocurrencies over exactly that time period are immense but the time series plots have a lot of ups and downs, and in Ethereum’s case very extreme ones, making them very risky.

After extracting the relevant cryptocurrency prices and computing daily log returns I was curious to see what the correlation of the returns of cryptocurrency prices would be with the returns of stocks. The full correlation matrix can be found in the notebook, but to summarise, there is almost no correlation between cryptocurrency returns and stock returns (at least for the ones included in this analysis) over the time period from mid-2015 to mid-2020.

The fact that cryptocurrencies seem to be close to uncorrelated with any of the stocks in the existing portfolio, in combination with their impressive returns, would indicate that adding them to the portfolio could be beneficial from a mean-variance perspective. Let’s see what that looks like.

In the above visualisation, the blue cluster represents the randomly generated portfolios based solely on stocks and the orange cluster represents randomly generated portfolios based on stocks and cryptocurrencies. The orange cluster is far more spread out over the x-axis, meaning that the randomly generated portfolios based on stocks and cryptocurrencies have a wider range of possible risks, especially towards the riskier end. At the same time, the orange cluster, even for the same level of risk, tends to lay above the blue cluster, indicating a better risk-return profile for the orange cluster.

The Efficient Frontier that can be achieved using both stocks and cryptocurrencies lies above and to the left of that using only stocks and therefore provides a superior return for any amount of risk.

The red stars represent the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolios and, in line with the clusters and Efficient Frontiers, the one constructed using stocks and cryptocurrencies offers substantially higher return, but also comes with more risk. The Sharpe ratios are 1.21 and 1.49 for the stocks-only and the combined portfolios, respectively.

Plotting the respective Capital Market Lines completes the picture:

Adding cryptocurrencies into the mix and combining the resulting efficient portfolio with a risk-free investment provides a superior risk-return profile than would be achievable using only stocks and the risk-free investment.

At this point some people might say “But wait a minute, all you did was add an asset with almost uncorrelated returns to the portfolio, couldn’t you achieve the same with any asset whose returns are close to uncorrelated with the portfolio, such as gold or silver?” and that is a really good point to make. Let’s have a look at that.

Source: https://towardsdatascience.com/cryptocurrencies-the-new-frontier-part-2-7218c6a489f9?source=rss——-8—————–cryptocurrency

Blockchain

Goldman Sachs Plans to Relaunch Its Cryptocurrency Trading Desk

Republished by Plato

Published

on

Reports on Reuters today revealed that American multinational investment bank, Goldman Sachs, will offer bitcoin futures and non-deliverable forwards on behalf of its clients starting next week.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the move is part of the bank’s effort to take advantage of the fast-growing crypto space, which is gradually becoming an investment of choice for institutional players. 

Notably, the bank is also considering developing a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) soon as part of its commitment to fully venture into the industry. 

Based on this regard, the unnamed source noted that Goldman Sachs had already “issued a request for information to explore digital asset custody.” 

Goldman’s First Shot At Crypto

In late 2017, Goldman Sachs became the first Wall Street biggest firm to ever consider offering crypto-related products, as the bank was planning to open a cryptocurrency desk.

At the time, the Wall Street financial institution was working on how to address security challenges associated with the business, as well as how it would custody the assets.

Plans were on the way for the launch slated for late 2018 when reports emerged in September that same year that the bank has chosen not to offer crypto-related investments. 

Sources said that the bank dropped its crypto plans due to the regulatory concerns associated with the industry, with regulators breathing down the neck of most projects. 

The issue of regulatory uncertainty has been the major stumbling block that hindered several institutional players from getting involved with cryptocurrencies. 

Interestingly, there have been clearer regulations in recent times luring institutional investors like Microstrategy and Tesla. 

The entrance of these large corporations has given other institutional investors the greenlight that crypto is safe compared to how it was viewed in 2018. 

Thus it could be the reason Goldman Sach is making plans to restart its cryptocurrency trading desk in earnest.

A Change Of Heart? 

However, Goldman Sachs’ second shot at launching a cryptocurrency trading desk comes less than a year after the bank told its clients during a conference call that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not an asset class.

Reports at the time suggested that part of the reason for the call was to discourage its customers from including bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in their portfolio.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
Binance Futures 50 USDT FREE Voucher: Use this link to register & get 10% off fees and 50 USDT when trading 500 USDT (limited offer).

PrimeXBT Special Offer: Use this link to register & enter CRYPTOPOTATO35 code to get 35% free bonus on any deposit up to 1 BTC.

You Might Also Like:


Source: https://cryptopotato.com/goldman-sachs-plans-to-relaunch-its-cryptocurrency-trading-desk/

Continue Reading

Blockchain

Bitcoin Still Has an Uncertain Future: Citibank Analysts

Republished by Plato

Published

on

In a 100-page deep-dive report dubbed “Bitcoin, at the Tipping Point,” Citibank’s global perspectives and solutions team noted that the cryptocurrency could potentially “become the currency of choice for international trade.”

The analysts acknowledged that the massive interest shown by several large institutional investors like Tesla, Microstrategy, and PayPal is one of the major propellants for the digital asset gaining mainstream adoption.

The team further noted that several other factors, including a wide range of digital payment options like stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), could also increase the chances of bitcoin adoption for cross-border settlements.

An Uncertain Future

The report also pointed out that a side-by-side comparison of the risks associated with bitcoin and the opportunities it presents makes it very easy to conclude that the digital asset is at a tipping point.

They wrote:

 “There are a host of risks and obstacles that stand in the way of Bitcoin progress… Weighing the potential hurdles against the opportunities leads to the conclusion that Bitcoin is at a tipping point… Bitcoin’s future is thus still uncertain, but developments in the near term are likely to prove decisive as the currency balances at the tipping point of mainstream acceptance or a speculative implosion.”

Bitcoin Going Mainstream Already 

The concluding part of the report quoted the famous philosopher, Schopenhauer, who said,

“All Truths pass through three stages, first it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”

The team states that the positive change in stance on issues about bitcoin by several financial institutions very well prove these words of Schopenhauer, which he said more than 150 years before the bitcoin idea was born.

Several banks had actively shunned bitcoin in the past, arguing that it has no intrinsic value as it is allegedly backed by mere speculations from its proponents.

However, bitcoin’s immense growth has forced its former critics to re-evaluate their stance and join the bitcoin adoption trend. Some of the biggest banks in the world have started offering bitcoin services to their clients.

SPECIAL OFFER (Sponsored)
Binance Futures 50 USDT FREE Voucher: Use this link to register & get 10% off fees and 50 USDT when trading 500 USDT (limited offer).

PrimeXBT Special Offer: Use this link to register & enter CRYPTOPOTATO35 code to get 35% free bonus on any deposit up to 1 BTC.

You Might Also Like:


Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-still-has-an-uncertain-future-citibank-analysts/

Continue Reading

Blockchain

Matic, xDAI (STAKE) and Loopring (LRC) rally as Ethereum gas fees rise

Republished by Plato

Published

on

The start of a new month has brought renewed fervor from the cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin (BTC) price steadily climbed from a low of $43,537 on Feb. 28 to a high of $49,200 during today’s early trading hours. 

As traders get excited about positive moves in the market and look to re-enter positions, the increasing use of DeFi continues to drive fees on the Ethereum (ETH) network higher, shining the spotlight on the top layer-2 (L2) protocols that offer working solutions.

Three protocols that have emerged as top L2 contenders with working platforms are Polygon (MATIC), xDai (STAKE), and Loopring (LRC). Each offers its own unique layer-2 approaches to helping ease high traffic on the Ethereum network. 

MATIC/USDT

Polygon, previously known as Matic, officially launched as a layer-two aggregator for Ethereum on Feb. 9 as a way to offer an interoperability protocol for the network.

Since excitement for the rebrand began, MATIC price has increased by 400% from $0.05 to an all-time high of $0.245 on March 1. Growing excitement for the Aavegotchi (GHST) mainnet launch on March 2 has also brought a boost of attention and trading volume to MATIC.

MATIC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Aavegotchi was one of the first projects to bridge over to the Polygon network and it will likely be joined by other projects if its mainnet launch on the network go smoothly.

MATIC also received a boost on Feb. 26 when it was announced that gaming giant Atari would be integrating Polygon in order to “bring their NFT & token products to Layer 2,” along with the launch of “the first EOS-Polygon cross-chain bridge,” that was done in partnership with pNetwork (PNT).

XDAI/USDT

 xDai is another layer-2 solution that has caught the attention of investors over the past few weeks. The xDai (STAKE) chain is a stable payment blockchain created by the POA Network, an Ethereum open-source public side-chain which offers a framework for smart contracts.

STAKE is designed to be a multi-chain staking token that validators and delegators offer as collateral in order to participate in the consensus mechanism and receive staking incentives for block production. The goal of the xDai platform is to offer fast and inexpensive transactions on the Ethereum network.

Since trading at a low of $7.50 on Jan. 2, STAKE price increased 500% to a new all-time high of $43 on Feb. 21 before falling under pressure alongside the wider cryptocurrency market.

XDAI/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

A scroll through the project’s Twitter feed shows multiple recent partnerships and integration announcements that have helped propel STAKE higher in recent weeks.

Notable mentions include an integration with the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) that allows users to move funds from Binance to xDAI using a BSC-to-xDai Bridge as well as the announced migration of the up-and-coming Bao Finance (BAO) to the xDai network.

LRC/USDT

Loopring is a layer-2 solution that specifically focuses on the creation of decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges (DEX).

One of the major sources of congestion on the Ethereum network is the ever-growing activity of popular DEXs like Uniswap (UNI) and SushiSwap (SUSHI).  A separate side-chain made specifically for exchange trading could help alleviate congestion on the network and this is what Loopring aspires to provide.

The overall goal of the Loopring protocol is to combine the advantages of decentralized exchanges with the liquidity and order book management offered by centralized exchanges to help increase the efficiency of order execution and enhance the liquidity of the DEX ecosystem.

Since Jan. 2, LRC has increased by 430% from $0.165 to a high of $0.88 on Feb. 12 .

LRC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

After falling to a low of $0.46 on Feb. 28, LRC price rallied 30% after it was announced that the Loopring exchange added multiple WBTC/Stablecoin pairs, offering “6 new ways to trade WBTC on Ehtereum L2.”

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for LRC on Feb. 28, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. LRC price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen on the chart above, the VORTECS™ score for LRC reached a high of 73 on Feb. 28, just as the price was beginning it’s 30% rally to $0.59.

Continued increases in the price of Ethereum, which rose back above $1,500 on March 1, will only exacerbate the pain felt by traders attempting to use popular DeFi protocols on the network.

The amount of gas needed to conduct basic transactions as well as the price of these fees will continue to drive users to trial the alternatives be offered by layer 2 solutions, and Polygon, xDai and Loopring are three protocols well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/matic-xdai-stake-and-loopring-lrc-rally-as-ethereum-gas-fees-rise

Continue Reading
Blockchain4 days ago

Gemini collaborates with The Giving Block and others, adds donations option

Blockchain4 days ago

NextGen Blockchain Platforms Self-Organize to Win Government Contracts

Blockchain4 days ago

What Coinbase Going Public Could Do For Crypto

Blockchain3 days ago

Crypto Investment Fund to Sell $750M in Bitcoin for Cardano and Polkadot

Blockchain3 days ago

This was avoidable – The lost Bitcoin fortunes

Blockchain1 day ago

Google Finance adds dedicated ‘crypto’ tab featuring Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin

Blockchain5 days ago

Tezos, IOTA, Dash Price Analysis: 25 February

Blockchain2 days ago

Economist warns of dystopia if ‘Bitcoin Aristocrats’ become reality

Blockchain5 days ago

Coinbase public listing filing details 2020 revenue, major a16z stake

Blockchain5 days ago

Bank of Korea Head Says Cryptocurrencies Have No Intrinsic Value

Blockchain2 days ago

XRP, STEEM, Enjin Price Analysis: 27 February

Blockchain2 days ago

Korean Government To Levy Taxes On Bitcoin Capital Gains Starting 2022

Blockchain1 day ago

Polkadot, Cosmos, Algorand Price Analysis: 28 February

Blockchain3 days ago

‘Bitcoin could reach $1 million or $1, and may do both of those’

Blockchain2 days ago

Here are 6 DEX tokens that have seen exponential growth in 2021

Blockchain2 days ago

6 Questions for Kain Warwick of Synthetix

Blockchain1 day ago

NBA Top Shot leads NFT explosion with $230M in sales

Blockchain5 days ago

Litecoin Price Analysis: 25 February

Blockchain3 days ago

What are the risks of trading cryptocurrencies?

Blockchain2 days ago

3 reasons why Reef Finance, Bridge Mutual and Morpheus Network are rallying

Trending