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Crypto Markets Rally On Renewed Spot Bitcoin ETF Hype

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Bloomberg analysts tip that spot Bitcoin approvals could occur by Nov. 18

The crypto markets rallying amid renewed expectations that a spot Bitcoin ETF approval may be just around the corner.

On Nov. 8, James Seyffart, a Bloomberg analyst, tweeted that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could approve applications for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds from Nov. 9 until Nov. 17. Seyffart said the eight-day window falls outside of the allotted comment period for the applications — during which they cannot receive approval.

“A brief window opens on Nov. 9 for the SEC to potentially approve all 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF applicants,” said Seyffart. “If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed.”

Seyffart noted that the SEC issued delay orders for seven spot Bitcoin ETF applicants at the same time.

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“Even if approvals don’t arrive this month, we still believe there’s a 90% chance of approval by Jan. 10,” Seyffart added.

Bitcoin rallied 4% to $36,600 amid the bullish speculation, tagging its highest price since May 6, 2022 and marking a 36% gain in seven weeks, according to CoinGecko.

The move added 2.8% to the combined digital asset capitalization, bringing the figure up to $1.42T. Just one cryptocurrency ranked among the top 100 by capitalization posted a drawdown of more than 1% for the past 24 hours, while 10 assets posted double-digit gains.

Bitcoin ETF bullishness

Rampant ETF speculation took hold of the web3 markets after a surprise spot Bitcoin ETF application from BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, ignited a flurry of rival filings from asset issuers.

A spot ETF would invest in and hold Bitcoin on behalf of investors, unlike existing futures ETFs which speculate on derivatives contracts.

A Nov. 8 video posted to the X account of Gary Gensler, the chair of the SEC, also raised eyebrows among onlookers.

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“Under The Securities Act, the SEC is merit-neutral: we don’t take a view on whether or not investors should invest in particular companies,” Gensler said. The SEC chair also noted the “rapidly evolving technology and business models” in the capital markets.

“Usually, this kind of stuff is posted by the SEC as like a disclaimer before they approve things they don’t like,” commented Adam Cochran, a prominent web3 commentator and senior counsel to Synthetix. “For example. Last time was four days before they approved the BITO futures ETF.”

Grayscale’s ETF bid

On the same day, CoinDesk, a crypto news outlet, reported that the SEC had entered discussions with Grayscale regarding its bid to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into a spot ETF, citing an anonymous source privy to the conversation.

Grayscale first applied to convert its trust into an ETF back in October 2021 but was rejected by the SEC. However, a U.S. district court sided with Grayscale’s appeal in August, and the SEC declined to file its own appeal before the expiry of an October deadline.

In a Nov. 8 appearance on Bloomberg Podcast, Grayscale’s CEO, Michael Sonnenshein, said the SEC “is constructively engaging” with its application at present.

He added that Grayscale is “operationally ready” to manage an ETF today, but said “timelines are certainly not something that ha[ve] been discussed” during conversations with the SEC so far.

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