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Blockchain

Bitcoin Price Analysis: After BTC’s Quick Dip Below $40k, Is Local Bottom Confirmed?

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Global risk-off, uncertainty over Evergrande’s debt crisis, and large liquidations have been pressuring Bitcoin lately. The near-term chart may look bearish, but the fundamental and on-chain trend remain firmly bullish, making this pullback a potential buying opportunity.

In just over two weeks, BTC fell from a high of $52.9k to a low of $39.5k, mainly driven by massive liquidations in derivatives and panic selling from younger coins. It’s easy to look at the chart with a bearish bias considering the deep retracement and fear in the market. Still, the trend in fundamentals and on-chain metrics shows the underlying strength in the holders of Bitcoin.

Chart by TradingView
Chart by TradingView

As we covered in August, September has historically been a volatile period for risk assets. The recent turmoil can be expected after US stocks became extremely overextended to the upside, with uncertainty regarding monetary policy, the Evergrande debt crisis in China, virus concerns, and a rising dollar. Keep in mind, risk assets are highly correlated, making Bitcoin vulnerable to shockwaves in traditional markets, despite powerful fundamentals and on-chain data.

Near-Term Technicals Cautious – Larger Structure Holding

Large liquidations started cascades of forced selling and pushed BTC below a key rising trend line around $43.8k on a closing basis. Further risk-off in global markets triggered more liquidations forcing another $1B wipe out, pushing BTC to wick down to $39.5k, a key Fibonacci target, as shown in the chart below.

Price also dipped into the previous $30k to $40k trading range before wicking back up into the close. Although near-term bearish, these levels are being tested on an intraweek basis. The bulls need to hold the top of the trading range between $40k to $41.3k on a weekly closing basis to protect the larger market structure. A weekly close below $41.3k to $40k could invalidate the technical breakout out of the trading range, significantly increasing the risk of further downside.

So far, the Elliott Wave structure is suggesting this pullback could be a Wave 2 corrective move after an 80% rally to complete Wave 1. Corrective waves are a 3-wave push to the downside, which BTC has been following so far. It will take some time to confirm, but the structure strongly suggests this is a Wave 2 pullback. Wave 3 is usually the largest wave to the upside, suggesting potential all-time highs if price action is strong.

Chart by TradingView
Chart by TradingView

It’s important to note, derivatives markets can add significant volatility to spot BTC prices. Although participants can track metrics such as funding rates, open interest, and leverage ratios, liquidations can happen at any time, which can trigger large cascades of forced selling, catching the market by surprise.

Levels to Reclaim

With BTC trading in the low 40s, it’s important to see prices start pushing higher to recover $45.8k, near the critical 200-day moving average. Reclaiming the rising trend line around $43.8k would also be a near-term positive signal.

Ideally, it would help to have certainty return to the market, especially regarding Evergrande and Fed monetary policy. Any good news could flip sentiment to bullish, and the risk on trade could resume.

On-chain Trend Remains Firmly Bullish

When these liquidations happen, retail and investors holding younger coins tend to panic sell, adding further selling pressure to the market. So far, on-chain data has shown most of the selling has come from liquidations and younger cohorts selling while long-term holders, miners, and entities holding older coins continue to HODL.

Chart by CryptoQuant/TradingView
Chart by CryptoQuant

Most selling is coming from 3 to 6-month, 1 to 3-month old and younger coins. These participants mostly accumulated above $50k and have been realizing losses as BTC plunged to $39.5k.

BTC miners in aggregate continue to hold with reserves maintaining current levels of around 1.845 million BTC. Daily miner outflows to exchanges to sell remain low, indicating miners have no intention of selling large amounts of BTC at current prices.

Chart by CryptoQuant
Chart by CryptoQuant

ASOPR which tracks the profitability of the overall market has dipped back below 1 on a closing basis, meaning the market is currently trading at a loss. More importantly, LTH SOPR remains above 1, meaning long-term holders are still in profit despite the drawdown. STH SOPR is below 1, which confirms younger coins are being sold at a loss.

Historical data using the SOPR metrics have shown bear markets occur when the LTH SOPR is consistently below 1, meaning long-term holders are at a loss. It’s important to note the LTH SOPR remained above 1 during the entire 55% crash from $64.8k to $30k, a strong signal this is a mid-cycle pullback rather than a bear market.

The Mean Coin Age metric by CryptoQuant continues to trend higher, strongly suggesting long-term holders continue to hold and accumulate. During bull markets, they distribute aggressively as price appreciates and continue to distribute as BTC enters a bear market. This occurred during the 2017 bull market peak and the beginning of the 2018 bear market, causing the Mean Coin Age to trend lower as long-term holders continued to distribute.

Chart by CryptoQuant
Chart by CryptoQuant

For more than 3 months, the Mean Coin Age has been trending higher, strongly suggesting BTC is not in a bear market. If BTC was in a bear market, we would have seen long-term holders and large miners sold massive amounts of BTC, causing the Mean Coin Age to fall, confirming a trend of distribution.

September Shakeout not Impacting Macro Trend in On-chain

Despite this month’s drawdown, mainly from macro risk-off and large liquidations, the overall trend in fundamentals and on-chain for BTC remains firmly bullish. This is because the long-term holders and miners which own the majority of supply continue to hold and show no interest in selling these drawdowns.

The near-term volatility will likely continue as the global market attempts to navigate the uncertainty with fed monetary policy, economic data, and the Evergrande debt crisis. We can expect the price to catch up to fundamentals and bullish on-chain metrics once certainty comes back to the market.

Given the large dislocation between fundamentals and price, this dip could be a significant buying opportunity for investors looking to increase exposure to BTC.

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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.


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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-price-analysis-after-btcs-quick-dip-below-40k-is-local-bottom-confirmed/

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Blockchain

Own NFT Land in ERTHA Metaverse that Could Generate Revenue

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[PRESS RELEASE – Please Read Disclaimer]

The last year or so has seen the massive growth of the non-fungible token space, which became arguably the most talked-about field in the cryptocurrency space. With celebrities from all industries trying to take advantage of the ongoing craze, NFTs have now become the place to be for protocols providing groundbreaking featured and services.

Some have taken their development stages further, attempting to garner a more significant market share. This is the case with ERTHA, whose metaverse has tapped one of the most legendary online games from the past two decades – Heroes of Might and Magic.

Its economic and social life, inspired by the aforementioned game, is built on the binance smart chain and aims to enable users to explore and investigate the space by choosing specializations and increasing the strength of the NFTs.

The project’s globe consists of 350,000 HEX land plots, all of which are represented as non-fungible tokens. Users owning a HEX land plot will have the chance to receive cash-back for every transaction completed with Ethereum (ETH) as a landowner. The game is specifically designed to replicate a real-life environment, simulating the actions that people would perform in order to earn a living and continue with their lives.

As mentioned above, ERTHA is designed to inspire economic and social growth, investigate the new online world, and push users to increase their engagement levels in the NFT space.

The project’s development process has been wildly comprehensive as it took Alpha more than 17,000 Code commits and over 30,000 hours of writing program code to provide the end-product.

The map of ERTHA is divided by NFT hexagons. This allows players to be free to choose where to live, study, work, and earn ETH tokens. Many companies and players also prefer paying taxes in the form of the second-largest cryptocurrency.

The project further promised that some internal developments, such as territorial disputes and international conflicts, can positively impact the prices of the NFTs.

ERTHA metaverse political influence and management of different territories are controlled with decentralized instruments, meaning smart contracts, through the financial epicenters in the game. Political influence introduces a number of advantages for NFT holders.

ERTHA also promised full decentralization for its land properties and non-fungible token attributes.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/own-nft-land-in-ertha-metaverse-that-could-generate-revenue/

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Blockchain

1inch Network Expands to Arbitrum to Lower Transaction Costs

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The popular decentralized cryptocurrency exchange aggregator, 1inch Network, will be expanding to Arbitrum.

  • In a press release shared with CryptoPotato, the team revealed that the move is aimed at lowering transaction costs and improving throughput and withdrawal speeds.
  • Arbitrum is an Ethereum scaling solution built using Optimistic Rollups, and it allows developers to cross-compile contracts for running on Arbitrum.
  • This is aimed at ensuring full compatibility with Ethereum on Web3 interface and smart contract levels.
  • Speaking on the matter was Steven Goldfeder, CEO at Offchain Labs – the team behind Arbitrum, who said:

“The Arbitrum One ecosystem is virbant with many excellent and high volume DEXes and we are very excited to have 1inch join as a DEX aggregator. […] 1inch has a fantastic team and an incredible reputation among DeFi users and we can’t wait to see their traction on Arbitrum One!”

  • One of the first purported benefits that users will be able to experience is lower transaction cost compared to what it would be on Ethereum’s mainnet.
  • Anton Bukov, the co-founder of 1inch Network, said:

“Arbitrum’s advantages are definitely set to be attractive for 1inch users, as they are getting more diversity when it comes to cheaper transactions and withdrawal options.”

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/1inch-network-expands-to-arbitrum-to-lower-transaction-costs/

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