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Can Bitcoin go below $10K again? The ‘Trondicator’ may have the answer

The price of Bitcoin has been testing $10,000 support the entire weekend but did the futures gap finally get filled by a chart candle downwick?

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The markets are bleeding out. Ether (ETH) dropped from $500 to $300 in a matter of days, people are screaming that the DeFi bubble has burst already, and are crying about their favorite “[insert food name] coin” crashing in value after a one-month-old Twitter account rug pulled 38K ETH from investors.

Yes, it’s just another week in crypto, but did anyone else notice that Tron (TRX) was pumping amidst all this?

Might just be a coincidence, but the last time this happened so quickly the entire crypto market bled out in the long, cold crypto winter.

Daily cryptocurrency market snapshot, Sep. 4. Source: Coin360.com

Daily cryptocurrency market snapshot, Sep. 4. Source: Coin360.com

The Bitcoin “Bart” top

BTC/USD 4-HOUR chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/USD 4-HOUR chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has shed 21% of its dollar value after dropping from $12,500 to sub $10K levels in just two weeks, leaving the popularized “Bart” pattern staring us in the face.

But when the leading digital cryptocurrency by market capitalization makes such a dramatic move, it pulls (for the most part) every other crypto asset down with it.

The top of this particular chapter in the history of Bitcoin was about $12,500, with many now questioning where the bottom could lie. So in this week’s analysis, I will look at three potential scenarios of how to identify the bottom.

The CME gap

BTC1! CME 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC1! CME 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Most seasoned Bitcoin traders are aware of the CME gap, for those yet to be exposed to this sorcery let me explain. Bitcoin is a 24/7 tradable asset. The CME, however, is only actually open 23 hours per day, beginning Sunday evening at 5∶00 pm Central Time and ending at 4∶00 pm CT Friday afternoon.

This means there are windows where gaps can occur, typically these occur on weekends when the market closes on a Friday and reopens on a Sunday evening. However, traders can still trade the asset 24/7 using what the CME refers to on their website as the following:

“Rule 526, and EFRPs (Exchange for Related Position), pursuant to Rule 538, may be negotiated/executed 24/7 and must be submitted for clearing during the appropriate clearing session.”

This means that orders can still be placed when the market is closed as far as the charts are concerned, which means orders can get left unfilled, and this is where the gap comes in.

The most recent gap occurred on Aug.13. This was a Thursday, so when the CME closed for one hour when Bitcoin was trading at $11,715, it reopened at a price of $11,765. This $50 move is what created the gap. So as Bitcoin rose to $12,635 on the CME chart, there may have been orders left unfilled from $11,715.

As the price fell past the gap price on Aug. 19, 2020, the gap is then considered “filled” and one can only assume that orders left behind at this level were then filled.

However, the price of Bitcoin has continued to bleed out, and we have printed a new local bottom of $9,905 on the CME chart, which is now just $240 shy of filling a gap left on July 24.

This is where it gets rather opaque. The gap range on July 24 is between $9,665 and $9,925, leaving the question of whether the gap must still be filled? Or whether the gap partially filled.

As the wick entered the gap range, it did not reach $9,965, thus not closing the gap entirely. Does this mean there are still orders waiting to be filled at $9,665?

We don’t know, and this leaves some speculators believing the gap has been filled, and another camp believing it is yet to be filled.

The weekly Fib paints $7K levels as support

BTC/USD 1-week chart Source: TradingView

BTC/USD 1-week chart Source: TradingView

Moving aside from the CME magic, technical traders are already eyeing up $7K areas as support. One analyst @officiallykeith (*ahem* that’s me btw) tweeted on Sep. 4: 

“Losing the .618 on the weekly of $7033 I will maybe realize my dream of owning nothing.”

Shortly after the same levels were echoed by popular trader Scott Melker (@scottmelker), who said:

“Point to remember – from here, a retrace to the low $7000s would still be considered “healthy,” hitting a 61.8% golden pocket retracement before heading to new highs. That would actually be considered “normal” after the move from the March lows. Would scare everyone.”

Whilst the prospect of hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci level might frighten many people, the more seasoned Bitcoin hodlers amongst us such as @Davincij15 were quick to assure crypto twitter that this is all part of the game. He noted:

“9 1/2 years ago…

I got #bitcoin at $1 and kept buying up to $32, then watched it drop to $2! Also watched bounce between $5 and $7 for 2 years.

Still held, still bought, still here, still strong!”

A reminder to us all that neither hodling nor trading Bitcoin is going to be easy, but to date, it has seldom been wise to bet against Bitcoin. As such we now have two potential bottoms in sight, $9,665 or around $7,100.

However, there is a third less-conventional indicator that might hold the answer…

“The Trondicator”

TRX/ETH 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

TRX/ETH 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

So let’s talk about Tron for a second. My last 10x trade of the 2017 bull market actually happened at the beginning of 2018, and that was on TRX.

We all know what happened after January 2018. The crypto bear market was thrust upon us, and altcoins started heading toward zero. But what is interesting about Tron and, in particular, its chart history, is that whenever Tron prints a candle with a wick near enough the same size as the candle itself, strange things happen to the crypto space as a whole.

This isn’t immediately noticeable on TRX/USDT charts, as Tron started life as an ETH pairing. So when you look at the TRX/ETH chart on the weekly, you start to see a pattern clearer than the Bart we are looking at on today’s BTC chart.

The first time we saw this type of longtail pump candle, the bear market started. The second time it happened was the week commencing Jan. 7, 2019, followed by a longtail dump candle on Feb. 4, 2019 — the exact period that Bitcoin found its bottom around $3,300.

So here we are again, the Aug. 30 weekly candle is a green long-tail candle on Tron and the markets are all going to pot. So maybe, just maybe, the bottom will be signaled when Tron prints another candle with a wick equal to the size of its body again.

The bearish scenario for Bitcoin

If Bitcoin fails to hold the CME gap support of $9,665, I’ll be looking at the weekly Fibonacci levels for support. These lie at the following levels: the 0.382 at $9,190, followed by the 0.5 fib at $8,168, with the absolute safe correction level being 0.618 around $7,146.

Losing the 0.618 would pretty much signal that we’ve had our bull market, now it’s time to keep an eye on the Trondicator.

The bullish scenario for Bitcoin

The CME gap effect is very real. I have witnessed first hand an immediate price correction after the CME gap has filled. As such, since the gap has partially filled, we may have already seen the bottom. The first bullish sign would be closing above the 0.236, which is around $10,454. Should BTC hold this level, then I expect the bull market to resume.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/can-bitcoin-go-below-10k-again-the-trondicator-may-have-the-answer

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What Ethereum killer? On-chain data shows competitor networks are still behind

Republished by Plato

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Ether (ETH) remains the second-largest cryptocurrency and it absolutely dominates the smart contract industry according to an array of network usage metrics. Even though the network has been overwhelmed by peak activity which is causing median fees to surpass $10, the network effect of its large user and developer base seems to be enough to sustain its position as the second ranked cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Nevertheless, some key on-chain metrics are beginning to show a potential change in Etheruem’s supremacy, which raises the age old question of whether an “Ethereum killer” will be able to dethrone the top network?

Smart contracts Total Value Locked (TVL) ranking. Source: defillama.com

As shown above, the Ethereum network vastly dominates decentralized applications (dApps). Due to its high gas fees for transactions, when analyzing the number of active addresses, the Ethereum newtork appears to be at a disadvantage to its competitors.

Over the past week, FLOW blockchain’s NBA Top Shot had almost 80,000 active addresses which is five times larger than Ethereum’s Rarible NFT marketplace or even SushiSwap. Thus, the first data to analyze is the daily active addresses number across each blockchain.

Daily active addresses. Source: coinmetrics.io

The chart above shows that Tron (TRX) has recently surpassed Ethereum in daily active addresses, although this metric can be easily inflated. The Tron network has virtually zero fees for simple transactions which creates an unfair comparison.

By measuring effective transactions and transfers,it’s easier to exclude the addresses that are not contributing to the network.

Transactions and transfers, adjusted, USD. Source: coinmetrics.io

By doing this we can see that Tron doesn’t come even close to Ethereum’s numbers, although Cardano’s (ADA) recent price growth has led to a virtual tie between the two.

Oddly enough, the Tron network holds over 14.5 billion of the Tether (USDT) in circulation, which by itself should boost network usage metrics. Meanwhile, Cardano has 90% fewer daily active addresses than Ethereum, yet, both networks handle the same amount of transfers and transactions.

This is especially problematic as Ethereum handles 20 billion Tether tokens and also manages all the transactions of Chainlink (LINK), USD Coin (USDC), Wrapped ETH (WETH), and many others.

ETH, ADA, NEM, NEO, TRX market cap, USD million. Source: cointrader.pro

This data should, at least theoretically, be reflected in the market capitalization. Thus, it makes sense for Ethereum to dominate the ranking as no other network is even close to its decentralized applications.

Moreover, when analyzing the transfer and transactions’ value, Ethereum leads by 50 times if we exclude Cardano’s questionable figures discussed earlier.

For the time being, the data suggest that the four “Ethereum killers” analyzed above are unlikely to “flippen” the Ethereum network anytime soon.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-ethereum-killer-on-chain-data-shows-competitor-networks-are-still-behind

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Bitcoin nerves, Tesla told to dump crypto, NFT madness: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 28–March 6

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Coming every Saturday, Hodler’s Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

Top Stories This Week

Bitcoin traders worry as price remains pinned below $50,000

After reaching lows of $43,500 last Sunday, Bitcoin staged a comeback, managing to hit $52,000 on Wednesday. There was optimism that the correction was over and that BTC would now have the chance to return to all-time highs.

Alas, the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. Fast forward to this weekend, and Bitcoin is once again struggling to break above $50,000 — a psychologically important milestone. Now, the nerves are starting to set in.

A drop below recent lows of $46,000 could open the door to further downward movement, endangering a bull run that’s been in place for almost a year… at least in the short term. Pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital believes BTC could bottom between $38,000 and $45,000 if this level fails to hold.

Traders are now beginning to speculate that Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways for now. A gloomy macroeconomic picture dominated by rising bond yields and a pullback in tech stocks certainly isn’t helping matters.

Then again, there’s always a metric that shrugs off the gloom… suggesting everything is fine. Glassnode’s Reserve Risk indicator suggests that BTC’s rally is still in the early to middle stage — even after this week’s pullback. Great. Nothing to worry about, then.

Analyst tells Tesla to dump Bitcoin for buybacks as shares plunge

Tesla is now coming under pressure to sell off the $1.5 billion it holds in Bitcoin. Since the electric vehicle maker announced its crypto buy-in, TSLA shares have fallen by a stomach-churning 30.8%.

Gary Black, the former CEO of Aegon Asset Management, tweeted that Tesla would generate “positive momentum” if it bows out of crypto, adding: “Highly unlikely, but shareholders would be very supportive.”

Bitcoin’s price correction has also been hurting MicroStrategy — the business intelligence firm that owns more than 91,000 BTC. MSTR’s share price has tumbled by 52.8% in less than a month.

The company doesn’t seem too worried, though. MicroStrategy bought another 205 BTC this week in a $10-million spending spree that coincided with the latest dip.

While the software company began putting its existing assets into BTC in 2020, back when Bitcoin traded at about $10,000, its latest purchases have yet to break even.

Kings of Leon is releasing an album as an NFT

Buckle yourselves in… we’ve got so much NFT news to get through. One of the more attention-grabbing headlines this week came when Kings of Leon announced it is releasing its eighth album in the form of a nonfungible token.

Three types of NFTs are on offer, with the rarest offering front-row seats to Kings of Leon concerts for life, a personal driver and the chance to hang out with the band before shows.

Frenzied activity in the NFT sector doesn’t end here. The rarest Pepe of them all — “Homer Pepe” — went under the hammer for 205 ETH this week… that’s worth $323,000 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, an NFT made up of 100 individual pieces from 100 different artists sold out within minutes on Rarible.

Aavegotchis — NFTs inspired by the Tamagotchi devices that were oh so trendy in the late 1990s and early 2000s — were snapped up in under a minute. And as sales on NBA Top Shot continue to go through the roof, the executive chairman of the sports merchandise company Fanatics, Michael Rubin, said: “It’s almost a frenzy happening right now.”

If all of this wasn’t crazy enough, an original artwork by Banksy has been burned and turned into an NFT. Ironically, the piece is called “Morons” and depicts buyers at an art auction bidding on a piece emblazoned with the words “I can’t believe you morons actually buy this shit.”

Tether hit with 500 BTC ransom demand, but says it won’t pay

Still dusting itself off after a showdown with the New York Attorney General, Tether is really struggling to catch a break right now.

This week, hackers threatened to release sensitive company documents that supposedly belonged to Tether… unless they were paid a 500-BTC ransom — a staggering sum worth $23.8 million at the time.

Tether announced what was happening on Twitter and declared: “We are not paying.”

The deadline has now passed, but what remains unclear is whether the extortionists are attempting a simple cash grab, or whether it’s all part of a greater effort to undermine Tether and the rest of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

“Either way, those seeking to harm Tether are getting increasingly desperate,” the company added.

No crypto ban in India: Finance minister predicts “very calibrated” stance

There’s been another dramatic twist in the “will they, won’t they” saga of India’s planned crypto ban.

On Saturday, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said reports that the government is pursuing a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies are overstated. She stressed that regulations won’t be as “severe” as previously reported and that the authorities were determined to take a “very calibrated” stance.

The comments will no doubt come as a relief for crypto businesses and investors in the world’s second-most populous country following years of uncertainty.

At one point, India was considering introducing jail terms of up to 10 years for anyone caught dealing in cryptocurrencies — along with a hefty fine. The country’s central bank also introduced a ban that stopped banks from offering services to crypto businesses, causing several to collapse. Those restrictions were sensationally overturned by the Supreme Court last year.

Sitharaman’s latest remarks are at odds with a Bloomberg report last month that claimed crypto assets would soon be completely banned in India.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $48,445.86, Ether at $1,607.45 and XRP at $0.46. The total market cap is at $1,484,740,419,357.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Chiliz, Enjin Coin and Flow. The top three altcoin losers of the week are Cardano, 1inch and Stellar.

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis

Most Memorable Quotations

“You should look for relative strength when others are weak. Global macro sold off yesterday and BTC did not give a donkey.”

Kyle Davies, Three Arrows Capital co-founder

“Bitcoin is holding up against the macro spectacularly well.”

Lex Moskovski, Moskovski Capital CEO 

“The fact that Bitcoin continues to show strength even with GBTC acting like a resistance band holding it back is very encouraging and shows to me that the overall story, that of accelerating adoption, is still intact.”

Chad Steinglass, CrossTower head of trading

“I think there’s going to be tremendous value created, but also there’s so many people getting into it, I don’t think everyone’s going to be successful.”

Michael Rubin, Fanatics executive chairman

“It’s early stages, but in the future, I think this will be how people release their tracks: When they sell a 100,000 at a dollar each, then they just made $100,000.”

Josh Katz, Yellowheart CEO

“I think Reed Hastings is a very innovative guy and has a lot of creative thinking, and I think he still controls the reins at Netflix, and so I think that might be the next big one to fall.”

Tim Draper, serial investor

“What we are seeing built with crypto today is just proof of concept. As tech continues to get better/cheaper/faster there will be new applications and maybe even something that supersedes what we know as crypto today.”

Mark Cuban, billionaire

“I see HOMERPEPE as the most important NFT in art history because its headline-making sale in 2018 influenced so many of the original crypto artists to believe we could put our art to work building both a market and belief around this new technology.”

Matt Kane, artist

“Is Bitcoin a currency? Property? An asset? Maybe all of the above, I’m going in with a 3% portfolio allocation.”

Kevin O’Leary, Shark Tank investor

“Bitcoin has returned almost 200% (so nearly tripled your money), every single year for 10 years, *compounded*.”

CaseBitcoin

“We’re sending a clear message to the entire industry that you either play by the rules or we will shut you down.”

Letitia James, New York Attorney General

“Those seeking to harm Tether are getting increasingly desperate.”

Tether

“There are a host of risks and obstacles that stand in the way of Bitcoin progress. But weighing these potential hurdles against the opportunities leads to the conclusion that Bitcoin is at a tipping point.”

Citi

Prediction of the Week

Bitcoin price is going to “infinity” — Kraken CEO

Hodler’s Digest has been home to some pretty sky-high Bitcoin price predictions over the years — $500,000 here, $1 million there. Determined not to be outdone, Kraken’s CEO has gone nuclear… predicting that BTC will be worth “infinity.”

Jesse Powell believes that, one day, humanity will simply give up pricing Bitcoin in U.S. dollars — telling Bloomberg that a $1-million price tag in 10 years’ time is reasonable.

Research from the company he runs is perhaps a little more realistic. Kraken’s latest analysis suggests Bitcoin could next top out somewhere between $75,000 and $306,000.

FUD of the Week 

BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes and Ben Delo negotiate surrender to U.S. authorities

The former CEO of the crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is in negotiations to surrender to U.S. authorities next month.

Arthur Hayes and fellow executives are accused of violating the Bank Secrecy Act by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Transcripts from a virtual court hearing suggest he’s going to surrender to the U.S. in Hawaii on April 6 — six months after he went on the run.

McAfee faces crypto-related fraud charges from NY court

Criminal charges are piling up for John McAfee. The crypto advocate and internet security pioneer has now been accused of fraud and money laundering conspiracy crimes. Allegations relate two schemes where cryptocurrencies were “fraudulently promoted” to investors.

Prior to today’s news, McAfee already faced charges from U.S. governing bodies for tax evasion and initial coin offerings that he allegedly advertised for compensation without properly informing the public. 

After going on the run from the U.S. government in 2019, McAfee was arrested in Spain in October 2020.

Dev says $31 million Meerkat Finance exploit was a “test” and funds will be returned

Alarm bells rang this week when Meerkat Finance, a decentralized finance protocol based on Binance Smart Chain, lost BNB worth $31 million — hours after it had launched.

The team initially claimed it had been the victim of an exploit but then deleted all its social media channels. Due to the nature of the breach, some believe that a “rugpull” scam had taken place.

But there might be some good news on the horizon for the victims of the exploit, which is one of the largest in DeFi’s short history. A Meerkat Finance developer posted in a newly created Telegram channel and revealed the exploit was a “trial” testing users’ greed and “subjectivity” — adding that the team was preparing to refund all victims.

Best Cointelegraph Features

DeFi who? NFTs are the new hot stars on the crypto block

NFTs are taking over from where DeFi left off, and data suggests asset tokenization will dominate 2021.

Crypto Pepes: What does the frog meme?

Cointelegraph Magazine talks to BarnBridge founder Tyler Ward, who has inadvertently created a Pepe the Frog NFT meme craze.

Pricing the hype: Crypto companies valued at billions as market booms

Crunching the numbers: Analysts and industry experts weigh in on crypto firms like Coinbase and Kraken being valued in the billions.

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Source: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/2021/03/06/bitcoin-nerves-tesla-dump-nft-insanity-02280306

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Polkadot Price Analysis: 06 March

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Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice

Polkadot‘s market has grown significantly over the past few months, both in terms of value and fundamentals. In fact, DOT’s growth can be evidenced by the fact that Open Interest in Polkadot’s Futures market has been surging lately. At the time of writing, DOT was trading at $33.24, with the altcoin having a market capitalization of $30.62 billion.

Polkadot [DOT] 6-hour chart

Source: DOTUSD on TradingView

Polkadot’s six-hour chart [DOT] highlighted that of late, its value was shrinking within a descending triangle. DOT’s falling price was supported at $30.82, but the market trends suggested that a further drop in value could be imminent.

Such an observation would make Polkadot a strong bet for short-traders.

Reasoning

The Bollinger Bands suggested that there was barely any volatility in the DOT market as the bands converged. However, the falling price could have contributed to the bands converging. Meanwhile, the Signal line was moving above the candlesticks as the sellers continued to sell.

With the altcoin’s price testing the support, the bearish trend might lead to a drop in the price of the digital asset. Further, the MACD indicator was highlighting strong bearishness in the market, with the MACD crossing under the Signal line. Ergo, the prevailing market trends seemed to be siding with the sellers, something that could result in a sell-off in the near-term.

While the Relative Strength Index bounced from the overbought zone, it was observed to be approaching equilibrium, at press time. However, this seemed to suggest that buyers were trying to level the market.

Crucial levels to look out for

Entry-level: $30.89
Stop-level: $35.01
Take profit: $25.42
Risk to Reward: 1.33

Conclusion

Polkadot’s six-hour chart highlighted a bearish trend extending across the market. This bearish trend may result in the value of the digital asset dropping to $30. However, in the meantime, the altcoin’s price may continue to oscillate within the descending triangle and around its support level.


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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/polkadot-price-analysis-06-march

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