“Buy when oversold, and sell when overbought. Time to PRINT MONEY.”
We have all been there, no shame in that.
After all, the idea of buying Bitcoin after a heavy sell-off, and selling it after a strong rally, makes intuitive sense.
But could our intuition be lying to us?
Time to run some actual backtests.
Teaser, this is what we’ll build at the end of the article:
Ok, first of all, let’s define the scope and parameters of the backtests.
- RSI periods of 14 and 2.
- H4, H1, and m30 timeframes.
- Only Bitcoin.
- Fees not included.
RSI entry conditions:
- 70 as the RSI overbought level (short entry).
- 30 as the RSI oversold level (long entry).
RSI exit conditions:
- 40 as the RSI exit level for shorts.
- 60 as the RSI exit level for longs.
- Long when oversold, exit at RSI exit level.
- Short when overbought, exit at RSI exit leve.
It’s also important to note that I used Pro Real Time for the backtests. Their Bitcoin price data is not the best, but it’s good enough.
Results for the H4 chart
The performance stats for both RSIs is horrendous on the H4 timeframe.
However, It’s interesting that the 2-period RSI gives significantly better results, even though the 14 period RSI is a LOT more popular among traders.
Let’s see if this holds up on other timeframes as well.
Results for the H1 chart
Well, for the H1 chart too, all performance metrics are incredibly poor.
But, we can also see again that the 2-period RSI outperforms the 14-period RSI.
Results for the m30 chart
Slightly better results than in the last 2 tests, but still horrible. Again, RSI(2) outperforms.
Interestingly, both RSIs were NOT profitable in 2019 in any of the backtests.
This is likely due to how price trended much harder in 2019 than in 2018, which isn’t ideal for a mean reversion strategy.
Creating a viable RSI strategy
We learned 3 main things:
- RSI(2) seems to give better signals than RSI(14).
- Lower timeframes are more profitable than higher timeframes.
- We need a trend filter to avoid getting run over.
Hence, I added the following rules to the existing entry/exit conditions already defined in the intro:
- We use the H1 MACD to determine trend direction.
- We use RSI(2) on the m30 chart to get overbought/oversold signals.
- Only go long if MACD is in a bull trend and RSI(2) gives an oversold signal.
- Only go short if MACD is in a bear trend and RSI(2) gives an overbought signal.
Now returns are OK-ish and the drawdown is fine.
Certainly much better than what we had so far.
That said, would I trade this strategy? In its current form, no.
But it’s interesting to see how much a simple trend filter and a shorter period can contribute to the profitability of an RSI strategy.
First of all, please remember that I did not include trading fees in the backtest. If you mostly trade using taker orders, then this is the first thing that you want to look into.
I didn’t include fees because mean reversion strategies usually trade during GREAT environments for limit order fills. If you’re using an exchange like BitMEX or Bybit, the hefty maker rebate is well worth the effort of making this work.
So, is this all there is to mechanical trading with RSI?
A few ideas that you can test next:
- Combine RSI(2) with another momentum indicator to get a confirmation for overbought/oversold signals. With this filter in place, try to run this on low timeframes (m15 and m5).
- Work with limit orders. e.g. if oversold, place limit order 1% below the current price.
- Try trend filters with less lag than the MACD.
- Test using cumulative RSI values. e.g. if the sum of the last 3 RSI values is more than x, go short.
RSI is a powerful indicator and can be used to trade profitably. But you’ll have to ditch the mainstream overbought/oversold concept and think a bit out of the box.
I have a few more backtests that I’ll be sharing publicly. I will probably publish one of these posts a week.
If there’s anything specific you’d like me to test, comment below or let me know on Twitter. I may add it to my to-do list if it’s interesting.
SafeEarth Donates $100,000 to TheOceanCleanUp Kicking Off Blockchain Eco Project
Bitcoin Press Release: Blockchain eco project SafeEarth has donated over $100,000 to TheOceanCleanUp charity with more donations planned for other global charities.
16th April, 2021, London, UK — SafeEarth, a blockchain eco project, has donated over $100,000 to community selected charity TheOceanCleanUp. The donated funds will help towards the removal of plastic waste from the planet. This generous donation represents the first act of SafeEarth’s continuing initiative to help charities across the globe.
The money was raised from SAFEEARTH token transaction fees. From each token transaction a portion of the fees will continue to be used for further donations to charities that focus on green initiatives as SafeEarth looks to effect a lasting and positive change on the planet.
The Ocean Cleanup Head of IT Steven Bink offered his thanks to Safe Earth on Twitter, stating:
“Dear SafeEarth community. On behalf of the entire crew at The Ocean Cleanup, I would like to thank you for this very generous donation. We are also honored that you chose The Ocean Cleanup to be the first charity to receive this gift from @SafeEarthETH”
Safe Earth & Earth Fund
Deforestation, pollution, global warming and many other factors have had an adverse effect on the environment for decades. As the world shifts more towards renewables and eco-friendly alternatives, initiatives like that of Safe Earth represent a changing mentality in industry
SafeEarth’s sole focus is to generate capital and build a community which is able to repair the ecological damage done to the planet. Safe Earth also collaborates with another green charity called The Earth Fund, which has raised around 50 ETH ($125,000 at the time of writing) to be used for similar causes.
As a part of their plan to raise awareness for ecological causes SafeEarth have also started a #PlasticChallenge on twitter, which urges people to get rid of plastic waste. The challenge (which launched on 27th of March) rewards users from a prize pool of $3,600 in SAFEEARTH tokens.
In the short time since the challenge began the SAFEEARTH token has been listed on the number one DEX Uniswap, recorded $3 million in trading volume and locked away more than $1.5 million in liquidity.
SAFEEARTH Token Burn & Benefits
The SAFEEARTH token is a deflationary asset that uses an autonomous yield and liquidity generation protocol. Each transaction charges a total of 4% in fees, which is then broken up evenly with 1% going to charities, 1% refunded to holders, 1% for advertising and 1% token lock-ups to increase liquidity. By burning at least 50% of the total supply after launch, (which will go to a black hole address) SafeEarth ensures increased token scarcity and liquidity.
$SAFEMARS is the sister token to SafeEarth and available on PancakeSwap exchange. The token uses very similar tokenomics to SAFEEARTH and over 50% of the tokens have already been burned. As none of the transaction fees from SafeMars go towards charity the company has chosen to give more back to users, with a total of 2% going instantly back to the holders wallets and the other 2% is auto-locked to increase scarcity and liquidity. Right now the number of $SAFEMARS holders is growing steadily with 93,699 holders at the time of writing.
Save Earth Through Safe Earth
Harnessing blockchain technology through it’s unique protocol in the interest of both charitable giving and community incentives is helping SafeEarth to stand out from its competition. This $100,000 donation is just the beginning of the company’s mission to effect a lasting and positive change to the planet.
SafeEarth blockchain eco project is already gearing up for another large donation with another 35 ETH (roughly $87,600) reserved for 5 charities that focus on humanitarian causes, such as access to clean water and wildlife preservation. The charities will be chosen by the SafeEarth community and will be announced on Earth Day, April 22nd, 2021.
Media Contact Details
Contact Name: Bitcoin PR Buzz Press Team
Contact Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Learn more about SafeEarth — https://safeearthcrypto.com/
Buy SafeEarth Coin on Uniswap — https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap
Take off with SafeMars — https://www.safemarscrypto.com/index.html
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SafeEarth is the source of this content. This Press Release is for informational purposes only. The information does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest.
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Did Elon Musk’s ‘jet fuel’ set GameStop (and Bitcoin) ablaze?
Depending on where you stand on the GameStop saga, which saw organized retail traders extract $6 billion from Wall Street overnight, you may think someone should either take the matches away from Elon Musk, or give him more.
The CEO and “Technoking” of Tesla was accused of pouring “jet fuel” on the GameStop short-squeeze at a critical moment by hedge fund manager David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, in a letter to investors published Thursday.
Einhorn said Elon Musk and venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya were the real instigators behind the short-squeeze, claiming both had supplied “the real jet fuel” for the pump with their tweets and TV appearances.
“We note that the real jet fuel on the GME squeeze came from Chamath Palihapitiya and Elon Musk, whose appearances on TV and Twitter, respectively, at a critical moment further destabilized the situation,” wrote Einhorn, according to Markets Insider.
Amid the orchestrated short-squeeze on GameStop by redditors on r/WallStreetBets, Elon Musk tweeted what some interpreted as his support for the endeavor. On Jan. 26, shortly after GME stock was pumped 91% in a single day, Musk tweeted the phrase “Gamestonk!!” accompanied by a link to the WallStreetBets sub-reddit.
Over the course of the next 24 hours, GME stock soared 134%, climbing from a unit price of $147 to $347. The following 24 hours brought even more fireworks, and by Jan. 28, the value of GameStop shares had hit an all time high of $483 — an 18,693% increase on the stock’s value just nine months earlier.
Chamath Palihapitiya appeared to voice his support for the short-squeeze on Jan. 27, when he told interviewers on CNBC that the GameStop saga was an example of the man on the street pushing back against the man on Wall Street.
Einhorn said that “quasi-anarchy” now reigns, based on what he sees as toothless regulation of the stock market. Einhorn compared the situation, where “the laws don’t apply to [Elon Musk]” to the defunding of the police force.
“Many who would never support defunding the police have supported — and for all intents and purposes have succeeded — in almost completely defanging, if not defunding, the regulators,” said Einhorn.
Previously Elon Musk was suggested to have unduly influenced the cryptocurrency market with his vocal support of Bitcoin (BTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) via Twitter. Legal professionals suggested in February that Musk’s tweets may have acted as a catalyst for the coins’ gains at the time, and warned that such tweets could attract SEC attention.
Musk laughed off the suggestion at the time, claiming that he would welcome any SEC investigation into his tweets, and that he simply liked “dogs and memes.”
Turkey to ban cryptocurrency payments
A new ban in Turkey will prohibit crypto holders from using their digital assets for payments, in addition to preventing payment providers from adding funds to their digital wallets at crypto exchanges.
According to a Friday announcement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the ban will come into effect on April 30, rendering any crypto payments solutions and partnerships illegal.
The bank stated, “any direct or indirect usage of crypto assets in payment services and electronic money issuance” will be forbidden.
While banks are excluded from the regulation, which means users can still deposit Turkish lira on crypto exchanges using wire transfers from their bank accounts, payment providers will be unable to provide deposit or withdrawal services for crypto exchanges.
Payment providers and digital wallets are widely used in Turkey to transfer fiat funds to crypto exchanges and vice versa. Major global exchange Binance partnered with local payment provider Papara when they first entered the Turkish market to provide a lira onramp for several different cryptocurrencies.
This new regulation means that users have two weeks to clear their balances if they exclusively use payment providers as fiat-to-crypto gateways.
Historically, the Turkish government has always had a tight grip on the payment ecosystem. In 2016, Turkey banned major global payment provider PayPal in the country.
Crypto regulation is a hot topic for Turkey in recent months. Last month, the Turkish Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced that they are monitoring the crypto ecosystem and working with the Central Bank, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, and Capital Markets Board to regulate crypto.
Additional reporting by Cointelegraph Turkey’s Emre Günen.
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