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Brace for impact? After hitting $42K, Bitcoin price volatility may rise

Bitcoin whales are selling while buyers in the U.S. are accumulating, who will get the upper hand, and where will BTC’s price go next?

Republished by Plato

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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a new all-time high above $42,000 on Jan. 8, surging by 9% in merely three hours. At the time, there was a high premium on Coinbase, which meant U.S. buyers drove up the market by aggressively accumulating BTC. But, there is continuous selling pressure coming from Asia, particularly from South Korea.

Bitcoin corrected sharply after rising to $42,000, declining by over 7% in about eight hours. The sell-off coincided with significant whale activity across major exchanges. Trading activity in the altcoin futures market also demonstrated a similar trend. For instance, on Jan. 9, a whale unloaded a big portion of Ether (ETH) longs on Bitfinex, taking profit for the first time since March 12.

Whales have been selling en masse since the start of 2021. As an example, when Bitcoin first surpassed $40,000, large whales began to sell BTC even as the price fell below $40,000. Within three hours, on Jan. 7, so-called “mega whales” on Binance sold off a total of four times, driving extreme volatility.

Where is Bitcoin headed next?

Currently, the Bitcoin market is essentially seeing a battle between whales taking profit on their positions and new buyers in the U.S. market accumulating BTC. As such, there has been consistent extreme volatility ever since Bitcoin surpassed $30,000. Due to the high inflow of capital into Bitcoin through Coinbase, the upside momentum of BTC would likely be sustained in the foreseeable future.

The key metrics to observe are Bitcoin outflows from Coinbase and stablecoin inflows into major exchanges. When high-net-worth investors purchase Bitcoin, they prefer to move the BTC out of centralized exchanges for security purposes. Hence, high Coinbase outflows would mean a heavy accumulation of BTC in the United States.

When stablecoin inflows are high, it suggests that sidelined capital is moving back into the Bitcoin market. Rather than cashing out to fiat currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, traders within the cryptocurrency exchange market, particularly derivatives traders, park their funds in stablecoins. Therefore, if capital stored in stablecoins begins to move back into cryptocurrencies, it typically suggests a bullish market structure.

Generally, the market sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive despite an upsurge throughout the past three months. Eric Wall, chief investment officer of Arcane Research, said in a tweet that Bitcoin has the potential to see a “very extreme peak” this time around. This would mean that even if Bitcoin could be overheated based on technical indicators in the near term, BTC could still have room for additional growth.

At the current price of around $40,000, the market capitalization of Bitcoin is valued at over $740 billion. Given gold’s valuation of $9 trillion, this would put BTC’s market cap at around 8.2% of gold. Bullish projections of Bitcoin, like the thesis of the Winklevoss twins, anticipate Bitcoin to overtake gold over the long term. Based on this assessment, some analysts say that Bitcoin reaching 10%–20% of gold’s market cap is realistic.

Wall noted that Bitcoin would likely peak when there is ostensibly a lot of “froth” in the market. If there is an unnaturally high level of retail excitement around Bitcoin, the probability of a temporary Bitcoin top would increase. However, Wall said that given the unprecedented level of institutional interest in Bitcoin, the next top could be much higher than many imagine:

“The reason is because our current macroeconomic climate is unprecedented — our economy is being flooded with money. On top of that, we’ve just witnessed an unbelievable level of endorsement from the financial elite in favor of Bitcoin. And we know this time that the price is being driven both by institutions and retail at the same time now.”

What are the key technical levels to watch?

According to researchers at Whalemap, a data analytics platform that tracks Bitcoin whales or high-net-worth investors, there are two key technical levels for Bitcoin in the near term. As long as BTC remains above $38,719 and $38,700, which are two major whale cluster areas, the researchers said that the bull trend of BTC remains intact.

Bitcoin whale clusters. Source: Whalemap.io

Whale clusters form when whales accumulate Bitcoin at a certain price point and do not move their holdings afterward. Clusters are theoretically ideal support areas because whales would look to accumulate more at levels they previously bought BTC at if the price of Bitcoin dips. The researchers noted: “Support at $39,719, invalidation below $38,700. Gap in supports between $39,719 and $32,180 so consolidating in the bear zone could bring us down to $32k.”

On Jan. 9, Bitcoin’s price fell to as low as $38,700, recovering strongly at the support level. This indicates that some whales are accumulating at this level, protecting it as a short-term support area to keep the BTC rally moving.

However, Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision Group, warned of the “New Year Head Fake.” Pal said that hedge funds begin to talk about various risk-on assets at the beginning of the year. Then, when many investors buy in, the market tends to correct by the end of the first quarter. If this head fake phenomenon coincides with a rising U.S. dollar, Pal said that he would be tempted to place S&P 500 puts. In the options market, puts are short contracts that allow investors to bet against an asset or an index.

Considering that Bitcoin and gold tend to move together, and a rising dollar could negatively affect both assets, a New Year head fake could cause corrections in both the Bitcoin and the gold markets. Whether this correction would be as brutal as the March crash remains uncertain, but given that BTC is overbought on higher time frames, like the weekly and monthly charts, the possibility of a deep correction exists nonetheless.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/brace-for-impact-after-hitting-42k-bitcoin-price-volatility-may-rise

Blockchain

Kraken Daily Market Report for January 26 2021

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Overview


  • Total spot trading volume at $1.33 billion, near the 30-day average of $1.65 billion.
  • Total futures notional at $542.6 million.
  • The top 5 traded coins were, respectively, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Polkadot, and Chainlink.
  • Although Chainlink (-1.0%), Litecoin (-1.7%) and others were down; Bitcoin(+1.2%), Ethereum (+3.3%), and Uniswap (+23%) were up.

January 26, 2021 
 $1326.2M traded across all markets today
 Crypto, EUR, USD, JPY, CAD, GBP, CHF, AUD 
XBT 
$32529. 
↑1.2% 
$552.5M
ETH 
$1358.7 
↑3.3% 
$442.4M
USDT 
$1.0011 
↑0.1% 
$149.3M
DOT 
$17.117 
↓0.4% 
$40.4M
LINK 
$23.059 
↓1.0% 
$25.0M
USDC 
$0.9999 
↑0.0% 
$20.2M
BCH 
$427.28 
↓0.9% 
$19.6M
UNI 
$13.853 
↑23% 
$18.5M
ADA 
$0.3441 
↑0.7% 
$16.7M
LTC 
$134.74 
↓1.7% 
$14.6M
XRP 
$0.2681 
↑0.3% 
$13.2M
AAVE 
$277.08 
↑13% 
$8.43M
XLM 
$0.2614 
↑0.3% 
$5.41M
XTZ 
$2.9084 
↓0.26% 
$4.2M
FIL 
$22.180 
↓1.0% 
$3.61M
CRV 
$2.1399 
↑7.2% 
$3.43M
ALGO 
$0.6021 
↑8.6% 
$3.36M
SNX 
$16.771 
↑8.6% 
$3.2M
XMR 
$137.92 
↑0.6% 
$2.92M
DAI 
$1.0005 
↑0.02% 
$2.64M
GRT 
$0.5361 
↑1.5% 
$2.22M
EOS 
$2.6297 
↓0.6% 
$2.18M
ICX 
$0.8948 
↑11% 
$2.08M
COMP 
$236.97 
↑12% 
$1.95M
ATOM 
$7.7332 
↑0.29% 
$1.82M
YFI 
$30280. 
↑3.6% 
$1.69M
KEEP 
$0.3131 
↓4.2% 
$1.5M
KSM 
$102.03 
↑3.4% 
$1.33M
BAT 
$0.2989 
↓3.0% 
$1.28M
OMG 
$3.4422 
↓2.7% 
$1.19M
DASH 
$104.90 
↑0.4% 
$1.19M
TRX 
$0.0295 
↑0.2% 
$1.11M
XDG 
$0.0082 
↓0.7% 
$1.09M
QTUM 
$3.4386 
↑4.6% 
$1.04M
MLN 
$36.117 
↓5.6% 
$1.01M
NANO 
$3.2120 
↑1.2% 
$1.0M
MANA 
$0.1665 
↑1.0% 
$916K
ZEC 
$89.189 
↑1.6% 
$914K
WAVES 
$6.8173 
↑2.5% 
$905K
KAVA 
$2.3313 
↓1.5% 
$643K
ETC 
$7.4335 
↓0.7% 
$520K
STORJ 
$0.4256 
↑9.9% 
$393K
KNC 
$1.3156 
↓0.04% 
$355K
OXT 
$0.2995 
↑1.7% 
$288K
ANT 
$4.0750 
↑5.1% 
$270K
SC 
$0.0044 
↓1.2% 
$266K
PAXG 
$1869.4 
↑0.3% 
$246K
REP 
$21.454 
↑4.4% 
$221K
LSK 
$1.3000 
↓1.6% 
$187K
GNO 
$115.59 
↑0.8% 
$177K
BAL 
$21.730 
↑3.7% 
$127K
REPV2 
$19.177 
↓0.6% 
$59.7K
TBTC 
$33172. 
↓2.6% 
$56.2K



#####################. Trading Volume by Asset. ##########################################

Trading Volume by Asset


The figures below break down the trading volume of the largest, mid-size, and smallest assets. Cryptos are in purple, fiats are in blue. For each asset, the chart contains the daily trading volume in USD, and the percentage of the total trading volume. The percentages for fiats and cryptos are treated separately, so that they both add up to 100%.

Figure 1: Largest trading assets: trading volume (measured in USD) and its percentage of the total trading volume (January 26 2021)



Figure 2: Mid-size trading assets: (measured in USD) (January 26 2021)



Figure 3: Smallest trading assets: (measured in USD) (January 26 2021)



#####################. Spread %. ##########################################

Spread %


Spread percentage is the width of the bid/ask spread divided by the bid/ask midpoint. The values are generated by taking the median spread percentage over each minute, then the average of the medians over the day.

Figure 4: Average spread % by pair (January 26 2021)



.


#########. Returns and Volume ############################################

Returns and Volume


Figure 5: Returns of the four highest volume pairs (January 26 2021)


Figure 6: Volume of the major currencies and an average line that fits the data to a sinusoidal curve to show the daily volume highs and lows (January 26 2021)



###########. Daily Returns. #################################################

Daily Returns %


Figure 7: Returns over USD and XBT. Relative volume and return size is indicated by the size of the font. (January 26 2021)



###########. Disclaimer #################################################

The values generated in this report are from public market data distributed from Kraken WebSockets api. The total volumes and returns are calculated over the reporting day using UTC time.

Source: https://blog.kraken.com/post/7623/kraken-daily-market-report-for-january-26-2021/

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Blockchain

Solana targets growth in Southeast Asia with a $5M grants scheme

Republished by Plato

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Solana has turned its focus towards decentralized finance in Southeast Asia with a new $5 million development fund.

The Solana Foundation created the fund in partnership with Vietnam-based investment firm Coin98 Ventures, enabling regional startups building on Solana to receive technical, marketing, and community support, as well as up to $100,000 in funding. The fund will run for the next three years with a specific focus on projects within the DeFi and Web3 spaces, including marketplaces, exchanges, and other DApps or tooling.

This is one of the first grants specifying a core region of interest, with a particular focus on Vietnam. Solana Foundation Executive Director Eric Williams:

“Our goal is to create the optimal conditions for developers in Southeast Asia to build amazing things on Solana.”

According to the announcement, “project teams may be distributed, but must have a physical presence in Southeast Asia.” The announcement makes it clear that if they do not have a presence there, they will not qualify for the fund.

Williams explained that the foundation partnered with Coin98 Ventures because of the technical and community support they can provide, adding that the key to this fund being successful is the combination of financial and technical support:

“Sometimes hurdles can be solved with extra money, other times they cannot.”

DeFi is gaining traction within the Solana ecosystem, driving trading volume to all-time highs earlier this month.

Using treasuries and fund campaigns to boost developer ecosystems within blockchains is common with programs already available for a range of blockchain networks including Bitcoin, Ethereum, OkCoin, and Polkadot.

In September last year, Polkadot received one of the largest fund boosts to date with Digital asset development company RockX investing $20 million to support the Polkadot ecosystem over the next five years.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-targets-growth-in-southeast-asia-with-a-5m-grants-scheme

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Blockchain

TA: Bitcoin Holds Strong At $31K, Why The Bulls Are Facing Uphill Task

Republished by Plato

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Bitcoin price is stuck in a range below the $33,500 and $33,800 resistance levels against the US Dollar. BTC is likely to continue lower unless it clears the $33,800 resistance.

  • Bitcoin retested the $31,000 zone and managed to stay in a range.
  • The price is currently facing resistance near $32,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a short-term ascending channel or a » Read more

” href=”https://www.newsbtc.com/dictionary/bear/” data-wpel-link=”internal”>bear flag forming with support near $31,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

  • The pair could trade in a range, with a strong resistance near $33,500 and $33,800.
  • Bitcoin Price Is Facing Strong Resistance

    After a failed attempt to clear the $35,000 resistance, bitcoin price trimmed gains and traded below $33,800. BTC even broke the $32,500 level and settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

    There was a spike below the $31,000 level, but it remained stable above $30,800. A low is formed near $30,823 and the price is currently recovering higher. It surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $34,915 high to $30,823 low.

    Bitcoin price is currently facing resistance near $32,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $34,915 high to $30,823 low is also near $32,800.

    Bitcoin Price

    Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    At the outset, it seems like there is a short-term ascending channel or a » Read more

    ” href=”https://www.newsbtc.com/dictionary/bear/” data-wpel-link=”internal”>bear flag forming with support near $31,900 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.  To continue higher, the bulls need to gain strength above $32,500, $32,800 and the 100 hourly SMA.

    The next strong resistance is near the $33,500 and $33,800 levels. A close above $33,800 could increase the chances of a steady rise in the coming sessions.

    Fresh Dip in BTC?

    If bitcoin fails to clear the $32,800 resistance or $33,500, it could start a fresh decline. An initial support is near the channel support at $31,900.

    A clear break below the channel support could open the doors for a larger decline towards the $30,800 support. Any more losses may possibly call for a downside break below the $30,000 support zone.

    Technical indicators:

    Hourly MACD – The MACD is struggling to gain momentum in the bullish zone.

    Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now close to the 50 level.

    Major Support Levels – $31,800, followed by $30,800.

    Major Resistance Levels – $32,800, $33,500 and $33,800.

    Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/analysis/btc/bitcoin-holds-strong-at-31k/

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