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Bitcoin’s recovery may be harder than you think

Bitcoin is currently nestled right above $10,000, playing a game of tug-of-war with the resistance. Although it briefly went under $10k over the past hour, there is a feeling none of the price positio

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Bitcoin is currently nestled right above $10,000, playing a game of tug-of-war with the resistance. Although it briefly went under $10k over the past hour, there is a feeling none of the price positions are permanent at the moment. With price exhibiting extreme turbulence, market sentiments were consequently changing as well on certain exchanges.

Source: Skew

Last month witnessed a historical period for Bitcoin futures on CME as for the majority of August, the Open Interest on BTC futures contracts were above $600 million. Institutional traders seemed to exhibit strong interest as the all-time high OI was reported on 17th August 2020 with $948 million on that day. However, statistics have changed at the moment, as OI recorded was under $500 million, last witnessed before Bitcoin breached above $10,000.

During the month of June 2020, the activity registered CME was highly influential as a total of 35,000 contracts were on track for expiry on 26th June, with consistent volume traders trying to push the price above $10,000 back then.

Now, the plot might have reversed and a decreasing OI on CME may restrict Bitcoin’s quick recovery upwards.

Source: BTC/USD on Trading View

Although generally independent of each other without causing a significant impact on each other, CME’s OI seemed to have dictated the direction of BTC’s price over the past month. As mentioned above CME ATH was witnessed on 17th August with $948 million, the same day when BTC topped at $12,400.

However, the OI started to decline after that, and even though BTC clocked in $12,000 once again on 1st September, CME’s OI was down to $633 million, almost $315 million less. Indicating the exit of a majority of the contracts, there is a feeling that accredited investors are pulling the plug for now.

For the longest time, it has been discussed that Bitcoin’s next major step in price will come at the back of strong institutional presence and it has been fairly evident in 2020. With CME’s depreciating OI at present, now it is likely going to restrict Bitcoin’s strong recovery in the charts. Unless activity spikes back on CME, Bitcoin is losing momentum on the institutional side of things for now.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/bitcoins-recovery-may-be-harder-than-you-think

Blockchain

Americans Can Now Buy Dogecoin from 1,800 Crypto ATMs Across the Country

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The meme coin that exploded in popularity recently, Dogecoin, has reached another milestone as the Bitcoin ATM provider CoinFlip decided to list the token on 1,800 cryptocurrency ATMs in the United States.

Dogecoin Coming to 1,800 ATMs

Started as a joke digital token inspired by Shiba Inu, Dogecoin took the world by storm in the past several months, which has prompted the popular Bitcoin ATM provider CoinFlip to take action.

The Chicago-headquartered company announced yesterday that it had added Dogecoin to its growing network of over 1,800 cryptocurrency ATMs located in 46 states.

The statement informed that this milestone “validates the legitimacy of the coin and further showcases CoinFlip’s dedication to meet consumer and industry needs as coin popularities shift.”

Daniel Polotsky, the CEO and Co-Founder of the ATM provider, said that the move would enable the general population a more straightforward way to receive Dogecoin exposure.

“Given its growing popularity and recent mass adoption, we are dedicated to making sure that Dogecoin is a part of our portfolio of coins and encourage further support of this cryptocurrency in the coming months.” – he added.

Dogecoin’s Support from Musk, Snoop Dogg, and More

CoinFlip reasoned that the Dogecoin listing comes after the token received massive endorsements from some of the world’s most popular names. Perhaps it all started with the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX – Elon Musk.

The executive previously updated his Twitter bio to display “former Dogecoin CEO,” posted dozens of DOGE-related tweets, and even bought some for his son.

Ultimately, every Musk interaction caused an immediate price reaction as DOGE surged to new highs. Consequently, the token even entered the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

Furthermore, this skyrocketing craze caught the attention of other famous individuals, including the US rapper – Snoop Dogg.

As such, it may not be a surprise that CoinFlip said that its decision came only after Dogecoin received “support from celebrities such as Elon Musk, Snoop Dogg, Gene Simmons, and Kevin Jonas.”

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/americans-can-now-buy-dogecoin-from-1800-crypto-atms-across-the-country/

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Bitcoin at $21,000? Is a buying opportunity coming soon?

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A series of on-chain metrics registered corrections when Bitcoin fell on the charts last week. In fact, BTC dropped down to as low as $43,000 briefly, with significant reshuffling seen after Futures Open Interest dipped by $4 billion too.

Other factors such as the Bitcoin funding rate experienced a reset as well, with Grayscale’s premium registering a low of -3.77%. AMBCrypto had previously reported about the positive reboot for the aSOPR, wherein it was identified that weak hands were getting washed out.

However, one particular metric carrying historical importance did not correct much. Interestingly, it could possibly alter the course of the rally going forward.

Bitcoin NUPL continues to avoid 0.5 reset

Source: Glassnode

According to Glassnode’s latest report, the strength of the current Bitcoin rally can be illustrated by BTC’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss or NUPL. In the past, the NUPL has regularly retested the 0.5-mark during bull market corrections. While a 0.5 re-test was seen multiple times during both the 2013 and 2017 rallies, the same is yet to be identified in the current market.

Here, it’s worth noting that market dynamics have definitely altered over the years with respect to user profitability and hodling sentiment, with selling pressure not fueling massive outflows for Bitcoin.

Source: CryptoQuant

Further, data from CryptoQuant seemed to suggest that Bitcoin outflows from exchanges have continued to maintain their low levels over the week, with long-term hodlers unfazed by the 21% decline in cryptocurrency’s price.

The resilience exhibited by investors was coming to fruition at press time since Bitcoin had managed to establish a position above its immediate resistance of $47,400 over the last 24 hours.

While it is still a little early to predict the start of a new bullish leg for Bitcoin, according to Willy Woo, consolidation above $45,000 is a strong sign of stability.

If history repeats itself, does NUPL reset carry a damaging outcome?

While the NUPL has not registered a reset at 0.5 during this rally, historically, it has happened during every bull cycle. According to data, the realized price trading is currently $14,511, and if the NUPL drops down to 0.5, it would mean Bitcoin would possibly drop down to a floor price of $21,766.

That would mean a 55.76% drop from BTC’s press time position, a drop that will completely take away all of BTC’s gains since 15 December 2020.

While historical probabilities are worth pondering over, it is also important to consider the macro-difference between previous rallies and the current one, with Bitcoin at the receiving end of more adoption than ever before.

For instance, the average weekly investment into Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust during Q4 of 2018 was $2 million. The average investment in GBTC for Q4 of 2020 was $217.1 million. Needless to say, the course of history for Bitcoin is indeed changing.


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Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-at-21000-is-a-buying-opportunity-coming-soon

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Litecoin is trading at a 1,800% premium via Grayscale’s LTC trust — But why?

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Shares in Grayscale Investments’ Grayscale Litecoin Trust, or LTCN, have been trading at a whopping 1,800% premium over the market rate of their underlying asset, Litecoin (LTC).

$319 per Litecoin? 

This difference is primarily due to retail investors’ inability to purchase shares directly from Grayscale Investments, whose funds are aimed exclusively at accredited investors.

LTC holdings per LTCN share (orange) and premium (blue). Source: Bybt.com

It costs $319 to buy a share in Grayscale Litecoin Trust. However, its LTC holdings per share are currently worth just $16.42. That means it’s almost 20 times more expensive to buy Litecoin via the trust than regular spot exchanges.

LTCN shares have recently traded for as high as $496 in November 2020 — 38% above Litecoin’s highest closing price in December 2017. Although the premium on Grascale’s Litecoin fund has been drastically cut over the past three months, LTCN shares remain an unattractive investment vehicle for retail traders.

The trust offers exposure to LTC without investors needing to handle or custody cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, its shares can only be sold by Grayscale Investments to institutional investors.

The unusual spread appears to have been driven by increasing retail demand for Litecoin ahead of the Mimblewimble privacy solution rollout, with Grayscale accumulating $258 million worth of LTC so far.

Arbitrage is not really an option

Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust aggressively ramped up accumulation in February, buying at a rate equal to 80% of new Litecoin being mined during the period.

However, anyone thinking about a potential arbitrage opportunity should note that all LTCN shares require a one-year holding period after they’re created. Besides, the trust requires all investors to be accredited, with a minimum of $25,000 to start.

The United States-based investment firm also offers trusts for other cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC). The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is the firm’s largest holding, with over $30 billion in assets under management.

In recent days, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust traded at a discount to net asset value as the TSX Purpose Bitcoin ETF saw record inflows. A diminished appetite in the secondary markets creates a potential imbalance, as there is no redemption program for the Grayscale rust funds.

Had there been a way to convert those shares back to their LTC or BTC equivalent, a market maker would gladly buy the trust shares at a discount.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/litecoin-is-trading-at-a-1-800-premium-via-grayscale-s-ltc-trust-but-why

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