Bitcoin has formed higher lows and higher highs to trade inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour chart. Price bounced off the resistance and might be due for another dip to support.
The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the uptrend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The 100 SMA also lines up with the channel support around $7,700 to add to its strength as a floor.
Volume is elevated to reflect strong market interest as volatility picks up. If this is sustained, bitcoin could even break past the channel top around $7,900 and go for a steeper climb. However, ADX is below 50 to signal market consolidation.
Stochastic is hovering around the overbought region to signal exhaustion among buyers and turning lower could confirm that sellers are about to return. Strong bearish momentum could spur a break below the channel support at $7,700 and be followed by a steeper drop.
Bitcoin is slowly gaining traction on its climb as the halving of mining rewards approaches, but many have noted how traders still seem to be cautious even as the actual event draws closer. This may be due to speculations that the move has been priced in for quite some time already and that profit-taking or a selloff may ensue in May.
Altcoins also seem to be moving in tandem with risk assets like stocks and commodities these days, which suggests that positive risk sentiment could be bullish for bitcoin while a return in risk aversion could spark a drop.
In any case, many appear to be holding out for actual market catalysts or a specific breakout direction on bitcoin before piling on larger positions.
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