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Bitcoin on-chain data suggests no bull market top at $60K, selling activity declining

Republished by Plato

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For the very first time in a Bitcoin (BTC) bull market, not only long-term investors but also short-term speculators who usually add to the daily sell pressure toward the end of a market cycle have become increasingly confident of higher prices as they hold on to their Bitcoin.

This only adds to the already existing supply shock. If demand remains strong, this is a recipe for another leg up for the BTC price.

Bitcoin selling activity is declining again

Every Bitcoin bull market usually coincided with an increasing number of short-term speculators coming into the market hoping to turn a quick profit, while long-term speculators start to add sell pressure toward the second half of the market cycle to realize their profits.

One of the best on-chain indicators to see this trend unfold in each cycle is called HODL waves. Hereby, the length at which each BTC address holds Bitcoin before they are sold into the market is clustered into term buckets that are then visualized in different color bands.

Bitcoin: HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

For example, someone who held on to their Bitcoin for five months would fall into the 3m-6m bucket, the light orange color band. If that person decides to sell, it falls out of that bucket and would show up in the 24h-term bucket, the dark red color band.

This means, the redder the colors are in the HODL waves chart on a respective date, the more short-term turnover of Bitcoins happens. This activity is almost at its lowest during a bear market, and at its highest during a bull market, while the short-term activity tends to peak around a bull market top.

Reflecting realized value in HODL waves is critical

Since the Bitcoin price fluctuates significantly during the market cycles, and HODL waves only account for the absolute number of Bitcoins moved, this chart does not account for the total value realized on a respective day by a Bitcoin seller.

As it becomes increasingly lucrative for hodlers to take profit the higher the price rises, the HODL waves can be weighted by the realized price, which is the price at which each Bitcoin on average was last bought /sold.

This adjustment allows for visualizing the value-driven profit-taking on a daily basis through the value-adjusted colored, term buckets.

Bitcoin cycle tops tend to form around the short-term activity peak

Once HODL waves are weighted by the realized price, the Realized Cap HODL Waves are derived, a concept that was first introduced by on-chain analyst Typerbole. This adjustment reveals that the 1w-1m bucket tops coincide with every single bull market top so far.

Bitcoin: Realized Cap HODL Waves. Source: Glassnode

This indicator does not only suggest that the current selling activity is not at a typical bull market peak yet, it even reveals that for the first time in Bitcoin’s bull market history this trend is declining while the price continues to rise.

Bitcoin: Realized Cap HODL Waves 1d-1m. Source: Glassnode

This is a very unusual trend in a bull market. Assuming that the price peak has not been reached yet, this suggests that profit-seekers, whether they are short- or long-term focused, are starting to hold on to their Bitcoin again, expecting higher prices to come and by that adding to the Bitcoin supply squeeze on exchanges.

Bitcoin selling activity relative to the holding period is quite low

Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Glassnode CTO, takes a similar view by looking at long-term hodlers through Coin Days Destroyed, an indicator that shows the total holding days “destroyed” by holders selling their Bitcoin.

Based on a 3-months moving average of this indicator, the destruction has retraced to a level last seen in the summer of 2019 at times where the price peak was already reached.

If the price was close to a bull market peak, a much higher indicator value would be expected as long-term holders would be taking profit in material size, which is currently not the case.

Bitcoin spending behavior relative to the market cap is low

When taking this concept of Coin Days Destroyed further and looking at it with respect to average value destroyed in perspective to the market capitalization, one arrives at the so-called dormancy flow. This is a concept invented by analyst and trader David Puell.

Bitcoin: Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow. Source: Glassnode

The dormancy flow describes the yearly moving average of Bitcoin holders’ spending behavior. It is based on the held value that gets destroyed in perspective to the overall accrued value in the market.

This indicator suggests, the 365-day average spending behavior of Bitcoin measured in USD is very healthy and far below prior bull market spending.

This is Bitcoin rocket fuel

Bitcoin selling activity whether it is from speculators or long-term holders is declining while also the annual spending behavior relative to the market capitalization is surprisingly low. All these on-chain data points suggest that the market is inching to an even deeper supply squeeze. This is one of the best rocket fuels to send the Bitcoin price higher.

However, this is not a guarantee as it requires continuous demand for the price to appreciate in this environment. Therefore, a close eye on high-net-worth individuals and institutions’ demand should be kept, as they have recently been the main driver on the buyer side.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Nothing here should be considered investment or trading advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. The author owns Bitcoin. You should conduct your own research when making a decision and/or consult with a financial advisor.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-on-chain-data-suggests-no-bull-market-top-at-60k-selling-activity-declining

Blockchain

DOGE is Young People’s Middle Finger to the System, Says Mike Novogratz

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Mike Novogratz, in a research report, stated that Dogecoin is “the most honest shitcoin”, calling it a “store of value” for young people wishing to express a “little bit of a middle finger to the system”.

Dogecoin’s Recent Price Action

DOGE has entered a steep and stunning climb during the past few months, going from mere pennies to over $0.65. Young people betting on the speculative and volatile crypto asset have made staggering amounts of money thanks to the recent insane rate of return.

Many theorize that this rise has been fueled by Tesla founder and business mogul Elon Musk, who often refers to Dogecoin on his infamous Twitter profile, tweeting in a (usually) positive manner. Oftentimes when an “Elon tweet” comes out regarding Dogecoin, it gives a nice little boost to the price.

Most recently, Elon Musk revealed that he would be hosting SNL, dropping a single hint: Dogefather. This enigmatic message has spurred thousands of young people worldwide to invest in DOGE, which, although extremely risky, has been facing undeniably bullish price action as of late. Will Elon Musk’s SNL special provide the fuel needed for DOGE to power through to over a dollar, or will it be a ‘sell the news’ event?

Novogratz Draws Parallels to GME

Novogratz, in his interview, urged people to “listen to what Dogecoin is saying”, as he sees it as very comparable to the GameStop fiasco (where a group of young retail traders pushed GME to new heights, partially in an attempt to liquidate hedge funds that were shorting the stock).


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“There is nihilism and excitement to it,” Novogratz stated, adding, “there’s something really pure about it.”

Indeed, Dogecoin is not a successful ‘company’ in the traditional sense, and there is little to no innovative development work going on behind the scenes, but we’ve seen (in the stock market, for example) that the power of the masses if placed behind a single unifying idea, can work wonders.

It’s a massive game of tug of war — whether or not Dogecoin can sustain this dizzying momentum remains to be seen. One thing is for sure: millions of people will be tuning in to watch SNL this week.

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Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://cryptopotato.com/doge-is-young-peoples-middle-finger-to-the-system-says-mike-novogratz/

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Blockchain

Latin America’s Biggest Online Marketplace, MercadoLibre, Disclosed Bitcoin Holdings

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On a financial results report dated May 5th, e-commerce giant MercadoLibre dropped the bomb. The company is the latest institution to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. It follows MicroStrategy, Square, and Tesla’s highly covered buys. Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is in its infancy, but advancing non-stop.

In the financial highlights for 2021’s First Quarter, the company wrote a succinct:

As part of our treasury strategy this quarter we purchased $7.8 million in bitcoin, a digital asset that we are disclosing within our indefinite-lived intangible assets.

A modest allocation, considering MercadoLibre has almost $4B in assets, a cash reserve of $1.1B. It also has a market capitalization of approximately $76B. However, the move might be part of a bigger plan. The company recently opened a section on their website dedicated to real state commerce in Bitcoin and Bitcoin only. The pilot program includes 75 properties and 7 real state agencies willing to accept the cryptocurrency.

Related Reading | JPMorgan Partners With Singapore’s DBS to Launch Blockchain-Based Payment Platform

The Bitcoin-on-the-balance-sheet club

The investment puts MercadoLibre in a pretty exclusive club. The institutional adoption pioneer was MicroStrategy, a company that then issued bonds to buy even more Bitcoin. Twice. At the time, Bitcoinist reported:

Microstrategy announced today that it purchased $15 million worth of Bitcoin. The company’s CEO, Michael Saylor, tweeted this morning that his company had bought approximately 253 BTC, bringing its total holdings to about 91,579 BTC.

After that, Square announced a moderate buy of $50M worth of Bitcoin, and months later another one of $170M. It’s worth noting that the company buys and sells BTC through their flagship product CashApp. And that it keeps buying more. Six months ago, Bitcoinist reported:

Ikigai Asset Management’s Hans Hague recently noted that per his analysis, Square and Grayscale alone have accumulated $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past quarter.

The biggest player of all, of course, is Elon Musk’s Tesla. Reports that the company made more money from that investment than for selling cars are all over the Internet. In any case, Tesla made a big splash when it entered the space. Bitcoinist reported:

Traders flocked into the cryptocurrency market a day after American carmaker Tesla announced that it had purchased $1.5bn worth of Bitcoin as “alternative reserve assets” to their cash holdings.

In its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Tesla said it plans to buy more Bitcoin in the future and—maybe—even enable its use as a medium of payment for its products and services.

MercadoLibre stock chart

MercadoLibre stock chart | Source: MELI on TradingView.com

Related Reading | Southampton FC Extend Partnership Deal with Blockchain Leader The Coingaming Group

More about MercadoLibre

It may not be a big name in the European and North American markets, but MercadoLibre is ubiquitous in Latin America. The company operates in:

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Uruguay
  • Mexico
  • Spain
  • Bolivia
  • Venezuela
  • Colombia
  • Ecuador
  • Peru
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
  • Honduras
  • Panama

In the quoted financial results report, they describe themselves as: 

Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre is the largest online commerce ecosystem in Latin America, serving as an integrated regional platform and as a provider of the necessary digital and technology-based tools that allow businesses and individuals to trade products and services in the region. The Company enables commerce through its marketplace platform which allows users to buy and sell in most of Latin America.

A question remains, will Bitcoin holdings make MercadoLibre’s stock rise?

Featured Image by Mark König on Unsplash - Charts: TradingView

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://bitcoinist.com/latin-americas-biggest-online-marketplace-mercadolibre-disclosed-bitcoin-holdings/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=latin-americas-biggest-online-marketplace-mercadolibre-disclosed-bitcoin-holdings

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Blockchain

Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital set to acquire BitGo for $1.2B

Republished by Plato

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Galaxy Digital is in the process of acquiring BitGo for $1.2 billion, which would be settled in stock and cash

Galaxy Digital, the firm owned by popular investor Mike Novogratz, is set to acquire BitGo, a leading independent digital assets infrastructure provider. The deal is worth roughly $1.2 billion and will be paid in both stock and cash.

In a press release yesterday Galaxy Digital said, “The acquisition will position Galaxy Digital as a leading global full-service platform for institutions seeking access to the crypto economy, offering an unparalleled breadth of industry-leading products and services at scale.”

Several reports surfaced last month, suggesting that the two companies are in advanced talks regarding an acquisition. Mike Novogratz, CEO and Founder of Galaxy Digital, said the acquisition of BitGo would turn his company into a one-stop-shop for institutions, boosting their efforts to institutionalise digital asset ecosystems and blockchain technology. Novogratz added, “The power of the technology, solutions, and people we will have as a result of this acquisition will unlock unique value for our clients and drive long-term growth for our combined business. We are excited to welcome Mike Belshe and the talented BitGo team to Galaxy Digital.”

Per the terms of the agreement, BitGo shareholders are set to receive 33.8 million newly issued shares of Galaxy Digital common stock. Furthermore, they will be paid $265 million in cash, which brings the total value of the deal to approximately $1.2 billion.

BitGo is one of the leading regulated custodians in the cryptocurrency sector. It currently provides services to over 150 exchanges and 400 institutional clients. BitGo controls over $40 billion in assets under management by supporting the custody of over 400 coins and tokens.  BitGo CEO and Founder Mike Belshe said joining Galaxy Digital is an exciting new chapter for the company, allowing their clients to access a wide set of financial solutions.

Galaxy Digital planning to go public in the US

Galaxy Digital is a publicly-listed company in Canada. However, the firm is planning to officially list on a US stock exchange this year. In that regard, the company’s board of directors approved a proposed reorganisation and domestication designed to help the company achieve its goal of going public in the United States.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://coinjournal.net/news/novogratzs-galaxy-digital-set-to-acquire-bitgo-for-1-2b/

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