Bitcoin (BTC) is back in familiar territory as the week begins after a weekend spent ranging in its new, albeit large, trading corridor above $30,000.
With the United States presidential inauguration just days away, Cointelegraph takes a look at what else may be able to shake up BTC price action.
DXY keeps reversing losses
The inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden comes as the strength of the U.S. dollar continues to rebound.
On Monday, the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which measures USD relative to a basket of major trading partner currencies, hit its highest level since Dec. 21.
The sustained upside in DXY tends to mean that Bitcoin growth takes a breather, this inverse correlation forming a conspicuous pattern throughout 2020. In the event, BTC/USD had little to lose during the latest gains, the majority of which were preserved despite huge volatility.
DXY was likewise unfazed by Biden’s decision to spend another $1.9 trillion in debt-financed coronavirus support, something that was described last week as “another multi trillion dollar advertisement for Bitcoin” by Gemini exchange co-founder, Tyler Winklevoss.
As Cointelegraph reported, however, analysts still favor dollar weakness to continue in the long term. Even traditional market participants continued to eye the extent of USD supply increases, a move which has shocked many into considering Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.
“A currency market isn’t different from any other market,” William Dinning, chief investment officer of U.K. fund manager Waverton Asset Management, told the Wall Street Journal over the weekend.
“If there’s a lot of potatoes available, it’s going to be cheaper. If there’s a lot of dollars available, it’s going to be weak.”
Nonetheless, incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Biden has said that the U.S. will not deliberately aim to maintain a weak dollar for the benefit of trade advantages.
Stocks need a rest, says analyst
On the markets, stocks showed indecisiveness as the week got underway, having calmed down from Biden’s announcement.
Asia saw mixed performance, and with Wall Street still to open at press time, U.S. futures were just a tad higher from Friday.
The lackluster gains were curious for some, coming despite the fact that China had delivered Q4 economic growth statistics which dwarfed any expectations. As Bloomberg reported, the world’s second-largest economy grew 6.5% during the quarter, making it the only major economy to avoid a coronavirus contraction last year.
“Markets needed a breather or even a pull back to justify reflationary expectations,” Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors, explained to the publication.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin continues to outpace any traditional assets in terms of gains in 2021, with correlation trending further and further towards zero for both stocks and safe havens such as precious metals.
Spotlight on “Altseason”
Also taking a breather in recent days is Bitcoin itself. After weeks of intensely volatile trading conditions, investors were treated to a quiet weekend, which also came as a welcome surprise to exchanges.
Previously, U.S. platforms Coinbase and Kraken had suffered outages at critical price points, and fellow trading platform eToro last week warned that it may have to limit Bitcoin buy orders should the weekend produce fresh volatility.
In the event, things were much quieter than anticipated, thanks to BTC/USD remaining rangebound with no real changes up or down.
As Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted, attention was instead beginning to refocus away from Bitcoin towards altcoins.
In a tweet on Monday, he reiterated the narrative that other cryptocurrencies would begin to take the limelight in the short and mid term. He summarized:
“Most likely going to occur at this point is the following. Relief rallies all across the #altcoin markets. FOMO on altcoins. #Bitcoin corrects one more time -> altcoins making HL and retesting.
A glance at the rankings confirmed the beginning of what is popularly called “Altseason,” with five of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap posting daily gains of more than 20%. In terms of weekly performance, seven tokens were up by more than 100%.
Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, was itself heading towards all-time highs, climbing past $1,200 again after a dip which saw it at one point lose $1,000 support.
With that, Bitcoin’s market cap dominance was slipping further on Monday, reaching 66.3% compared to 69.5% at the start of the year.
Price action leaves all-time highs untouched
For the spot market, Bitcoin was steadily decreasing volatility as the week began. The past three days saw a narrowing of the trading range within the $30,000-$40,000 corridor, with a pattern of lower highs and higher lows known as compression taking over.
As Van de Poppe noted last week, this is a welcome sign which gives the market time to recoup the strength required for an ultimate breakout of the compression structure. In Bitcoin’s case, this should result in a push towards or even through current all-time highs of $42,000.
Considering the longer term, meanwhile, he forecast that in this bull cycle, Bitcoin would reach between $275,000 and $350,000. For Ether, the top lay between $7,500 and $12,500, he told Twitter followers on Friday.
For fellow analyst filbfilb, meanwhile, there was still a way to go before any form of significant upwards volatility returned to Bitcoin.
“Interesting fractal going on here. Turn break 40k and turn into support and its a full moon mission,” he summarized to subscribers of his dedicated Telegram channel, highlighting a chart structure which may allow a trip to the top of the trading corridor.
“If the fractal plays out we might pump it to 40k and then retrace. Break the diag and turn it to resistance and maybe we need to play about more in this range.”
Fundamentals hit new record highs
Finally, a familiar bull signal returned to investors’ radar in recent days. A classic sign that further upside is in store for price, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals hit fresh all-time highs.
For hash rate, which gives an estimate of the computing power dedicated to the Bitcoin blockchain, this came in the form of 155 exahashes per second (EH/s) on Sunday.
The metric has been on a near-constant ascent since the end of December, adding 25 EH/s in just two weeks.
Just as bullish was difficulty, arguably the most important fundamental metric for Bitcoin, as it offers an insight into miner health and competitiveness.
After a 10.8% increase at the last automated readjustment on Jan. 9, difficulty hit a new record high of 20,607,418,304,385. The next readjustment, due in four days’ time, will add another 6%, current estimates say.
Sustained upside for both indicators has traditionally been associated with price gains, these occurring after a grace period which can last up to several months.
Legacy Records, The First Record Label Paying Music Artists In Crypto
From painters to digital artists to musicians, crypto continues to find integration across artistic mediums. Music continues to be a field that is ripe for revitalization, from a business standpoint. Accordingly, a number of different musicians have been releasing songs and albums as NFTs. Now, we have what’s being reported as the first official record label looking to get involved. The label looks to have artists join the ranks of other musicians getting involved in crypto.
In a press release issued to start this week, Legacy Records CEO Keishia McLeod said it came down to “either get involved or get left behind”. McLeod cited unique income stream opportunities for artists and closed by saying that “this is the future, not a trend”. McLeod has stated previously her intent to drive the label to be at the forefront of leveraging emerging technology in music.
There are two major buckets contributing to Legacy’s approach. The first is the most notable, as the label will become the first to offer artists an opportunity to receive their advance and royalty payments in the form of crypto. The second is to engage artists with NFTs, allowing fans to participate in auctions for unique content. The label’s specific plans around NFTs, and number of artists seeking to get paid in crypto, have not yet been disclosed.
As the crypto market grows, both artists and businesses are getting involved | Source: CRYPTOCAP-TOTAL on TradingView.com
Legacy Music’s Broader Business Growth
Las Vegas-based Legacy Records, not to be confused with Sony’s Legacy Recordings, will look to take advantage of the potential press buzz from the announcement. However, in tandem with the release, the label also announced a to-be-name music distributor who has also agreed to pay Legacy Records artists in bitcoin. The label also merged with New Jersey entertainment lawyer Navarro Gray’s ‘The Gray Firm’, to provide legal guidance around digital execution.
McLeod has noted previously that the label has desired being a mainstay in revolutionizing the way music artists do business. In a January interview with the LA Tribune, McLeod cited Netflix’s impact on the film industry, adding that “we haven’t seen that yet in this industry, but it’s coming. We’re going to be a large part of making that happen”.
Related Reading | Reviewing Topps MLB’s First Swing At NFT Tech
Music Artists Emerging Into Crypto
Legacy’s roster has the potential to join a growing list of music artists that continue to engage with crypto and NFTs. Last month, we wrote about long-time hip-hop artist Eminem partnering with Nifty Gateway to release original instrumental beats. Saturday Night Live promptly had a sketch explaining the digital collectibles parodying Eminem’s “Without Me”.
Other musicians engaging with NFTs include DJ Premier, 3LAU, The Weeknd, Linkin Park’s Mike Shinoda, and more.
Each week, our team recaps the week’s NFT action with ‘NFTs In A Nutshell‘ – covering everything NFT, from sport, music, and more.
Featured image from Pixabay, Charts from TradingView.com
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Speculation Tesla Dumped Its Bitcoin Holdings Denied By Musk
Elon Musk puts to bed rumors that Tesla has sold its remaining Bitcoin holdings. The comments came following his second attack on the leading cryptocurrency. This time, he called out the dominance of Chinese mining pools in a now-deleted tweet.
Bitcoin continued from its weekend slide with another drop today, currently down 5% at the time of writing. Given Musk’s apparent influence on markets, some insist he exercises more restraint on social media.
Tesla Has Not Dumped Its Bitcoin
Last week, the Tesla boss announced his firm would no longer accept Bitcoin as payment for its EVs. The reason he gave was a growing concern about the use of highly polluting coal by miners.
This coincided with a mass sell-off in which Bitcoin was hit particularly hard, closing the day down 13% to $49.5k.
Today, Musk tweeted that Bitcoin is highly centralized due to the small number of mining pools that control the network. He maintains that coal is a significant power source for miners, despite counter claims that the network runs mostly on renewable sources.
“A single coal mine in Xinjiang flooded, almost killing miners, and Bitcoin hash rate dropped 35%. Sound decentralized to you?”
In amongst the responses, @CryptoWhale suggested that Tesla will sell their Bitcoin holdings. Adding that, if that happened, Bitcoiners would only have themselves to blame. He was referring to the outpouring of hate directed at Musk.
Bitcoiners are going to slap themselves next quarter when they find out Tesla dumped the rest of their #Bitcoin holdings.
With the amount of hate @elonmusk is getting, I wouldn’t blame him…
— Mr. Whale (@CryptoWhale) May 16, 2021
Musk replied to the tweet with a response of “Indeed.” Some publications interpreted this as confirmation that Musk had already dumped his Bitcoin holdings.
But in a semblance of grace, Musk put the record straight by saying Tesla has not dumped its BTC holdings.
“To clarify speculation, Tesla has not sold any Bitcoin.”
However, with everything that has gone on since last week, is it only a matter of time before Tesla sells up?
Musk Should Be Aware Of His Influence In Moving Markets
Key crypto figures have rallied together in support of Bitcoin. Michael Saylor announced a $15 million BTC buy adding to MicroStrategy’s already substantial war chest, while Jack Dorsey tweeted a message of support in improving its green credentials.
However, @PlanB took a less nuanced approach by accused Musk of deliberating trying to destroy Bitcoin. The comment came in a poll asking his followers whether Musk has derailed Bitcoin from meeting expectations per the stock-to-flow model (S2F).
S2F refers to a predictive model based on scarcity over time. PlanB, who adapted it for Bitcoin use, puts the price of BTC at a minimum of $100,000 by year-end.
The Managing Partner and Co-founder of Nexo, Antoni Trenchev, said Musk should “wake up” to his influence in moving markets.
“He has to wake up to the reality that with his following, even single-worded tweets can move markets.”
But as some would suggest, he is already well aware of his clout in that regard.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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Cardano, Ethereum, Polkadot Price Analysis: 17 May
Cardano could witness an extended rally if losses are maintained at $2.17. Ethereum broke south from a descending triangle and lost a key support region at $3,620. Finally, Polkadot was in danger of a sharp sell-off in case of a break below $38.5.
Volumes on Cardano took a dip over the last 24 hours as buying activity came to a halt. After an impressive run that saw ADA post weekly gains of 22%, a correction had finally hit the market. A fall of 8% dragged ADA towards a newly discovered support zone at $2.17. A stronger support area lay between $1.82-1.48 and even clashed with the 20-SMA (blue). This confluence between the moving average and support zones would see a re-emergence of buyers should another dip take place.
Post the pullback, ADA presented the next target at $2.50. This psychological level could be snapped during the current bull run if buyers trimmed losses at $2.17. RSI moved south from the overbought zone but would likely stay in bullish territory above 55. ADX rose north of 32 and highlighted a strong trend in the market.
The more price-sensitive 4-hour timeframe highlighted certain bearish conditions in the Ethereum market that were hard to overlook. A descending triangle breakdown showed losses of 11% from the bottom trendline. This trendline also represented a strong defensive point at $3,620 and a southbound move saw extended losses up to $3,200. A green candlestick did indicate some bullish response and a rise above $3,620 could initiate a recovery towards $3,800.
Lower lows on RSI indicated weakening and confirmed ETH’s short-term bearish movement. Awesome Oscillator highlighted profit-taking as selling pressure was on the up. In case of further losses, 200-SMA around $3,000 could form another defensive barrier. Alternatively, the level around $3,800 saw some interplay between the 20-SMA (blue) and 50-SMA (yellow) and reclaiming this could trigger another bull run.
The formation of three candlesticks or ‘three black crows’ following an uptrend highlighted a strong shift of dynamics for Polkadot. Sharp bearish action dragged DOT below multiple support levels mentioned in a previous analysis. However, the daily timeframe outlined another buy zone at $38.5- a region that coincided with the 20-SMA and 50-SMA.
A break below this critical point could lead to an extended sell-off all the way towards $21.6 and 200-SMA (green). Conversely, a break above $44.5-$48 resistance could initiate a price hike. A bearish crossover in Stochastic RSI thwarted chances of a favorable outcome. Squeeze Momentum Indicator noted weakening buying pressure and a move below half-line would present sell signals.
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