The Bitcoin halving—the quadrennial event that slashes the rewards miners earn for supporting the network—looked to be on target for April 20 (4/20) as of Valentine’s Day last month. And at the time, Bitcoin investors were praying for a new all-time high price of $69,000. Ahem.

Just over a week ago, however, the halving target had moved up to April 15, and Bitcoin had already blasted past its all-time price mark to $71,000. Meme number dream ruined?

Well, only partially—because now the Bitcoin halving appears to be set for April 20 again.

Will the latest estimate hold true? Only time will tell. The latest April 20 target is courtesy of Decrypt’s own Bitcoin halving tracker, which not only collects our latest reporting around BTC, but also gives you a handy countdown to the estimated time of the halving.

Such estimates will probably shift and swing further as the eventual date nears, though it’ll become easier to provide a precise window the closer we get. That’s because the halving will take place at a certain block number on the Bitcoin blockchain, and when that block is mined depends a lot on how much network activity takes place before then.

Bitcoin blocks are typically mined at a rate of about 10 minutes, and if that holds true, then the 4/20 estimate ought to pan out. But sometimes it’s two minutes between blocks—or 15 minutes.

The halving is scheduled to take place at block height 840,000, no matter what, and the current block height is 835,701. Each block can hold approximately 2,700 transactions, but when there’s a ton of demand, the block turnarounds accelerate. When there are fewer transactions, well, then things may slow down a bit.

There’s been an incredible amount of demand for the Bitcoin network of late, what with spot ETF issuers filling up bags of BTC to fill their funds, retail investors buying and selling around Bitcoin’s multiple all-time high price milestones, and the NFT-like Bitcoin Ordinals seeing renewed demand as people inscribe and trade artwork and collectibles.

Will the Bitcoin halving take place on April 20? Maybe. It’s entirely possible. And as of this writing, it’s our best guess based on the data. But stay tuned to Decrypt’s Bitcoin halving portal, because it’s likely to keep bouncing as the fated block draws nearer.

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• Source: https://decrypt.co/222835/bitcoin-halving-expected-420-why-date-keeps-shifting