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Bitcoin: Dollar-cost averaging gives you these three under-performers

Republished by Plato

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It’s safe to say that 2020 has been like no other. Not just in the real world, but in the Bitcoin market as well. The king coin began at $7,200, halved its price by March, halved its supply in May, and doubled its price by October. That’s one hell of a rollercoaster.

Source: Coinstats

Despite this almost consistent price rise since March at least, money and attention have only recently started coming in. What’s even more startling is that this ‘money’ is not in the form of investments, it’s in the form of haphazard trading.

Big-money buys coupled with double-digit leverage built on pipe-dreams don’t last. What will last and give decent returns is a disciplined and structured investing thesis. What’s even more surprising is that a disciplined and structured investing thesis would’ve fetched you a higher return before this bull run, than in it. Don’t believe me? Let’s find out.  

The idea

Once again, we adopt the dollar-cost averaging thesis. A simple everyday investing strategy where the goal is to keep hodling and not to sell. Of course, to measure returns, we must compare the BTC amount hodled to the closing price. 

With the markets raging in recent months, it’s safe to assume that most people would’ve bet on the second half of the year giving a higher return than the topsy-turvy first half of 2020. However, when adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy and checking the monthly returns, it can be observed that a recovery market gives more returns than a bullish market.

To reiterate, this is how we approach returns and measure them monthly. We adopt a dollar-cost averaging of $10 every day, meaning we buy $10 worth of Bitcoin every day from the start of the month to the end of it. Based on the amount of BTC collected, we measure that against the trading price on the last date of the month, which gives us our returns. We then measure the returns against our initial investments and see if we made a profit or not.

For instance, $10 invested every day in January would result in a total investment of $310. Say you bought 0.005 BTC in the month (this is over 31 days and not on 1 January or 31 January). If Bitcoin’s price increased and on 31 January you sold the 0.005 BTC for $350, your return would be $40 or 12.9 percent over your investment. We’ll be following this approach from January to November. Quick note, for November, we’ll be looking at the first 20 days, because it’s still in progress.

Under-performers

It’s inevitable that some months would’ve given you a negative return. Such is the nature of investing. Even in such a structured investing thesis, three months under-performed, giving lower returns than our amount invested. Those months were – February, March, and June.

Of the trio, the obvious entrant is March. Since the markets crashed by over 50 percent right in the middle of March, it was inevitable to be included. It should be noted that the amount of Bitcoin you could buy in March, at the worst of the crash, is triple the amount you could buy right now. That’s the beauty of averaging. February and June returned negative because the former saw a rapid rise and fall, and the latter because it couldn’t consolidate the steady recovery of the previous months. Here’s how the investment panned out.

  February March June
Amount 10 10 10
Buys 29 31 30
Bitcoin ₿ 0.030150 ₿ 0.046699 ₿ 0.031641
Price at close  $ 8,557.30  $      6,427.68  $      9,150.60
Investment  $    290.00  $          310.00  $          300.00
Value  $    258.00  $          300.16  $          289.53
Change$  $     (32.00)  $             (9.84)  $          (10.47)
Change% -11.0% -3.2% -3.5%

The key takeaway from this table is the last row. February returned -11 percent, March -3.2 percent, and June -3.5 percent. Despite March grabbing the most headlines because of its drop, it had the highest returns of the three. And even with Bitcoin rising above $10,000 in February, it had the worst returns. The reason for this is that there was a lot going on within the month than its highs and lows, which are captured by dollar-cost averaging.

In the next two articles, we’ll look at which months gave flat-ish returns, and which months saw double-digit growth. You’ll never guess where October and November stand.

Source: https://eng.ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-dca-under-performers

Blockchain

Five Reasons Ethereum Has Entered a New Bull Market

Republished by Plato

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Ethereum is currently retracting sharply from its previous and 30-month peak of $620. Even with a decline of around $100 to today’s prices of $525, ETH is still up over 300% since the beginning of the year.

The confirmed genesis of the long-awaited Beacon Chain, which is Phase 0 of the even longer awaited Serenity ETH 2.0 upgrade, has no doubt driven momentum but it is not the only strong point for Ethereum.

Over 5 Reasons to be Bullish on Ethereum

DTC Capital’s Spencer Noon has pulled out a few key charts to back up the notion that we are definitely in a bull run for Ethereum.

Active addresses on the network are the first metric as it now has just under 500,000 per day. This is almost double what it was at the same time last year.

In terms of fees paid, Ethereum dwarfs everything else in the crypto space with 80 billion gas now being used on a daily basis. The analyst exclaimed that this is;

“A clear sign that it is the most useful network in the world.”

Over $16 billion in stablecoins have now been issued on Ethereum, a figure that has gone parabolic since the start of this year which is a sign that there is a major demand for digital dollars.

The DeFi effect has been huge as, despite a number of rivals and ‘killers’ emerging this year, Ethereum remains the foundation of the entire ecosystem. Ethereum’s largest use case has gone parabolic as there are now ten times more DeFi users than there were a year ago.

Total value locked across the DeFi space has surged almost 2000% since the beginning of 2020 to reach $14 billion with five billion dollar plus protocols which is a sign that the space is maturing.

And There’s More …

The amount of Bitcoin tokenized on Ethereum is also at record highs with 152,000 BTC, or $2.7 billion worth at today’s prices wrapped on the Ethereum network.

The DEX effect cannot be overlooked either as decentralized exchanges on Ethereum have done $20 billion in volume over the last 30 days. This has brought their combined total to $86 billion this year;

“A sign that DEXs can compete with the top centralized exchanges.”

As reported by CryptoPotato, Ethereum social sentiment and searches are also at their highest levels since early 2018 as the mainstream media and the masses start paying attention.

This latest pullback may settle below $500, but there is little doubt it will provide a buying zone for ETH which still has a long way to go.

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/five-reasons-ethereum-has-entered-a-new-bull-market/

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Coinbase CEO Fears Rumored Regulations Proposed By The Trump Administration

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Coinbase’s CEO Brian Armstrong has sent a letter to the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin regarding new rumored regulations on self-hosted cryptocurrency wallets. Armstrong believes that if implemented, the new legislation could harm users and, ultimately, the role of the US in the cryptocurrency financial field.

New Regulations On Self-Hosted Crypto Wallets?

The CEO of the largest US-based digital asset exchange took it to Twitter to outline the potential importance of these regulations if indeed implemented. The rumors indicate that the current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to make them official before the end of his term.

Armstrong explained that self-hosted cryptocurrency wallets (also referred to as non-custodial or self-custody wallets) are “a type of software that lets individuals store and use their own cryptocurrency, instead of needing to rely on a third-party financial institution.”

They enable users to access basic financial services through this technology – “just like anyone can use a computer or smartphone to access the open market.”

Should the proposed regulations become official, they would require financial institutions, including Coinbase, to verify the recipient (owner) of the self-hosted wallet. Meaning, it would collect identifying information on that party before completing the transaction.

According to Armstrong, such requirements would lead to several potential issues because “it is often impractical to collect identifying information on a recipient in the crypto-economy.”

Some of those issues could affect users that send cryptocurrencies to various merchants online or to other people in emerging markets, where “it is difficult or impossible to collect meaningful know-your-customer information.”

Even simpler transactions like upvoting some content on Reddit or transferring an item in a game would also require the verification of the recipient, which makes the process prolonged and complicated.

The US Will Suffer The Most

Armstrong believes that the impact of these “barriers” would prompt US-based users to initiate fewer transactions. This would “effectively create a walled garden for crypto financial services in the US, cutting us from innovation happening in the rest of the world.”

US customers would turn to foreign cryptocurrency companies to access such services, which could put the country’s status as a financial hub at risk in the long-run.

“If this crypto regulation comes out, it would be a terrible legacy and have long-standing negative impacts for the US. In the early days of the internet, there were people who called for it to be regulated like to phone companies. Thank goodness they didn’t.” – added Armstrong.

He also asserted that Coinbase and other cryptocurrency companies have sent a letter to the Treasury last week to articulate these concerns. However, he hasn’t specified if the Treasury has responded in any way yet.

Featured Image Courtesy of Observer

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/coinbase-ceo-fears-rumored-regulations-proposed-by-the-trump-administration/

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Cointelegraph Consulting: Overwhelming bullish sentiment once again proves costly

Republished by Plato

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According to data collected from 1000+ crypto social media channels, the average crowd sentiment towards Bitcoin adapted from slightly bullish to overwhelmingly bullish over the days leading up to Thursday’s dramatic pullback, mirroring the levels previously observed during its May and August price tops, respectively. 

The latest findings by Santiment, published in Cointelegraph Consulting’s biweekly newsletter, indicated that with both short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders in a position of +15% and +63% profit, the likelihood of profit-taking became high. To make matters more ominous, the funding rate on Bitcoin’s derivatives market was at a three month high on Bitmex, Kraken, and Binance. The funding rate is the price paid by one side of perpetual contracts to the other, helping to keep the price of contracts trading close to the underlying reference price. A large funding rate is a sign that there is a large increase in long predictions on the exchanges, which can accelerate the frequency of mass-liquidations in the event of a price correction.

Other news from around the legislative and enterprise blockchain world showed fashion is becoming a target for blockchain solutions with VeChain powering a streetwear collection and IBM reaching a partnership with a textile giant. Japanese financial giant SBI announced their Bitcoin lending service, showing that the DeFi lending trend might be leaking into traditional institutions.

Read the full newsletter edition here for more news and signals, complete with detailed charts and images.

Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. With market intelligence from one of the industry’s leading analytics providers, Santiment, the newsletter dives into the latest data on social media sentiment, on-chain metrics and derivatives.

We also review the industry’s most important news, including mergers and acquisitions, changes in the regulatory landscape, and enterprise blockchain integrations. Sign up now to be the first to receive these insights. All past editions of Market Insights are also available on Cointelegraph.com.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cointelegraph-consulting-overwhelming-bullish-sentiment-once-again-proves-costly

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