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Are we there yet? Here’s why one analyst says its not ‘altcoin season’

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Few traders would argue against the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a bull market, but there is less consensus on whether the market is in the midst of an “altcoin season.” A quick view of Crypto Twitter shows the schism between traders who are certain we are halfway through alt season and those who believe it has yet to begin.

Typically, traders rely on a wide swath of indicators and metrics, like Bitcoin’s total market capitalization versus the total altcoin market cap, Bitcoin’s dominance rate, and whether low-cap altcoins have rallied by a certain percentage.

As is the nature of investing, too much signal can at times produce mixed results, so Cointelegraph decided to have a chat with Ben Lilly, co-founder and analyst at Jarvis Labs, to see where he and his firm think the market currently stands and to determine the most appropriate metrics to use in figuring out whether or not an altcoin season is truly at hand.

Cointelegraph: A number of analysts claim we’re in an altcoin season, or at least right at the verge of one. Some are looking at support/resistance flips and fractals on altcoin market cap charts (isolated from BTC’s market cap) to make convincing arguments. Why do you think that we are nowhere near an altcoin season?

Ben Lilly: I believe everybody’s interpretation of what defines an altcoin season varies. For many, altcoin season might exist when both BTC and altcoins move higher. This is opposed to Bitcoin rising while altcoins remain flat or drop.

I think this is a fair view of altcoin season, but it’s not necessarily one I subscribe to. Simply because if this is a definition for altcoin season, it’s not a compelling reason for me to move away from Bitcoin and into altcoins from a risk-adjusted perspective.

Because in that definition of altcoin season, Bitcoin is still the preferable asset to own.

We think of altcoin season as market movements that take people by surprise or at least make traders rethink what is normal.

CT: So, altcoin seasons are not reflecting a macro-level trend shift in the market direction of Bitcoin’s momentum?

BL: Well, getting back to what I said earlier, support and resistances are helpful ways to explain. We can view these as areas that, when broken, create fast price action. It’s the type of action you want exposure to, assuming you’re on the correct side of it. While anything in between these supports and resistances can almost be assumed as “expected” or normal — in a loose sense.

To figure out where this area might be, we can look at a Bitcoin dominance chart. This lets us know the percentage of the market Bitcoin represents. Right now, it’s trading in a range, which is to say an “expected” range. And because it’s trending down, this is good for altcoins as Bitcoin concedes some dominance to other coins.

While many might point to this and say it’s an “altcoin season,” I’ll point out that this type of activity tends to happen in a bull cycle because new money is moving in.

In fact, we’ve been trading in this range of expectation from the middle part of 2019, which coincides with when Bitcoin found its low and began to turn bullish.

Bitcoin market cap dominance weekly chart. Source: TradingView, Jarvis Labs

Oddly enough, we recently jumped out of this range in late 2020, and when we did, Bitcoin went on an absolute tear. During this run, altcoins lost value. And similar to how Brent Johnson describes his dollar milkshake theory, Bitcoin sucked up the market’s liquidity as it ran higher.

We have since returned to this range of expectation, also known as the normal area of the market.

Now, if the opposite happens and we break this expected range to the downside, in our point of view, this will signify that altcoins are the asset to be sitting in, as they will generate outsized returns relative to Bitcoin. That’s when things will get wild.

CT: For years, traders have pinpointed the shifts in dominance rate between BTC and altcoins as a relevant indicator of when altcoin season begins. As the theory holds, when Bitcoin’s price consolidates or is in a downtrend and its dominance rate drops below a certain percentage, altcoins capitalize on Bitcoin’s range-bound action by rallying higher. What thoughts do you have on this?

BL: Similar to what I explained previously, it’s all about expectations. As soon as the market creates a change in view of what’s normal, then “altcoin season” will appear.

Another chart I’m frequently leaning on is the ETH/BTC pair. When Ether gains in relation to BTC, this is generally a good sign for altcoins. And recently, there’s been some bullish momentum on the chart within its current range of expectation.

The ETH/BTC pair is currently forming what we can describe as the Livermore Accumulation Cylinder. For more than a month, we have been discussing this in our free “Espresso” newsletter from the Jarvis Labs Substack, and what is clear is that the chart is taking form and is at the later stages of its trend.

If ETH/BTC breaks up and out of this cylinder, it’ll be another moment where expectations of what is normal will be adjusted. This is when we will see fast price action, and likely an altcoin season.

ETH/BTC weekly chart. Source: TradingView, Jarvis Labs

CT: While a rising tide does lift all boats, altcoins have been the top performers in the market when compared with Bitcoin. A quick look over CoinMarketCap shows that at least 50 have made moves that are well above 100%, and the altcoin market cap has risen from $250 billion in January to nearly $900 billion today. In your opinion, what is the primary signal that the market is in a proper altcoin run?

BL: Now, this is a bit different than an altcoin season, in my opinion. That’s because a proper bull run for altcoins is when investors are more likely to walk further out on the risk curve of crypto versus simply buying Bitcoin, not necessarily outsized gains compared with Bitcoin.

Based on this definition, we can make the case that whenever Bitcoin dominance is falling while crypto as a whole is in a bull market (like today), then this is a bull market for altcoins.

While investors might not have outsized gains relative to Bitcoin in a proper altcoin bull run like they would in an altcoin season, it is wise to begin building exposure to these higher-risk assets in this environment.

CT: Does on-chain data have any value in determining when alt seasons begin?

BL: Absolutely. On-chain is very valuable if you know how to filter out all the noise that comes with it. With crypto, there’s so much transparency in seeing transactions on-chain. This creates a trove of data that can be looked at in hundreds of different ways, many of which are somewhat meaningless.

At Jarvis Labs, we filter out all the data to find the data that matters. Then we run it through algorithms to create trade signals. It’s high-value data analytics and tends to be used in place of in-house analysts.

In saying that, on-chain is still an evolving space outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum. We’re on half a dozen blockchains watching these signals evolve and generating a variety of reliable signals will better pinpoint exactly when trend shifts take place and altcoin seasons begin and end.

One simple thing traders can follow in order to see the progression of an altcoin season is USDT flows.

When an altcoin season arrives, we’re likely to see USDT flow into other layer-two protocols such as Polkadot, Cosmos and Solana. That’s because many small-cap assets that are very far out on the risk curve, which tend to be bought in these types of environments, will exist on decentralized exchanges rather than centralized exchanges.

As investors start buying up these small-cap assets, liquidity will arrive, and USDT is the most ubiquitous form of liquidity in the market.

So, when USDT enters these ecosystems by the hundreds of millions, you can be sure it’s altcoin season, as investors will be chasing these assets only found on DEXs native to their protocol (i.e., Serum).

CT: Is it possible that the narrative may be changing and that some altcoins are breaking away from their reliance on the performance of Bitcoin, shifting what an altcoin season may look like?

BL: The changing landscape of risk is how I view this particular question.

And as other assets begin to grow in market cap and age, the network effects will grow. This, in turn, will insulate many crypto assets from Bitcoin since a lot of value will be attached to them.

In this way, over time altcoins will slightly deviate away from BTC’s performance.

Ethereum will be the first asset to do this, simply because of where it’s at in terms of its life cycle and development. But in terms of being immune to Bitcoin’s price, this won’t happen for many years. In fact, I think there will always be some correlation to an extent.

That’s due to macro reasons. Simply put, commodities as a whole tend to have a correlation to one another, equities as a whole have correlation, and even currencies tend to move in tandem with one another (i.e, USD, CHF, JPY). In saying this, crypto as a whole is likely to move in tandem with one another for at least most of this decade if not longer.

Disclaimer: Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim to provide you with all the important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor this article can be considered as investment advice.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/are-we-there-yet-here-s-why-one-analyst-says-its-not-altcoin-season

Blockchain

Elon Musk’s SpaceX to Accept Dogecoin (DOGE) Payments for Space Missions

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After Tesla’s moe of accepting Bitcoin (BTC) payments, Elon Musk’s space exploration SpaceX announced that it is will accepting Dogecoin (DOGE) payments for its pace missions. This comes just a day after Elon Musk called Dogecoin a “hustle” triggering a 30% price crash over the weekend.

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Is Musk trying to do damage control here? Maybe or maybe not! Whatever it is, this news is pretty exciting for all DOGE investors in the market. The announcement for “the DOGE-1 Mission to the Moon” was made by the Geometric Energy Corporation (GEC).

The mission involves flying a 40KG cube satellite of the Falcon 9 rocket that will carry “lunar-spatial intelligence and computational systems” on board. The mission launch is scheduled for Q1 of 2022 and so SpaceX also plans to start accepting DOGE payment during the same period. Here’s what Elon Musk tweeted upon launching Dogecoin to the moon.

Although GEC announced the DOGE-funded mission, it has not exactly said how much that would cost. Speaking about this new synergy between crypto and space missions, SpaceX Vice President of Commercial Sales Tom Ochinero said:

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“This mission will demonstrate the application of cryptocurrency beyond Earth orbit and set the foundation for interplanetary commerce. We’re excited to launch DOGE-1 to the Moon!”

Solidifying DOGE’s Market Position

Well, last week, Elon Musk’s SNL tweet drove DOGE price to an all-time high of $0.71 with its market cap reaching $94 billion. Just before the SNL event over the weekend, Elon Musk had warned about the higher valuations. As it happened, during Musk’s SNL show appearance, the DOGE price crashed as much as 30% over the weekend, after Musk referred to it as the “hustle”.

Even at price time, DOGE continues to trade 16% down at a price of $0.54 and a market cap of $70 billion. It is still trading 10% positive on the weekly chart. Also, the recent SpaceX announcement seems to have little impact in turning the tide for Dogecoin.

One thing is sure that such announcements will certainly solidify DOGE’s market position and acceptance. With the recent announcement, Geometric Energy’s Chief Executive Officer Samuel Reid said:

“Having officially transacted with DOGE for a deal of this magnitude, Geometric Energy Corporation and SpaceX have solidified DOGE as a unit of account for lunar business in the space sector”.

To keep track of Crypto updates in real time, Follow us on Twitter & Telegram.

Disclaimer
The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
About Author
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.

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Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://coingape.com/elon-musks-spacex-to-accept-dogecoin-doge-payments-for-space-missions/

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Blockchain

The Transfer Token’s (TTT) Migrating to a DeFi Token Protocol

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[PRESS RELEASE – Please Read Disclaimer]

Atom Solutions Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Atom Solutions), developers of the cryptocurrency trading and overseas remittance platform “Eternal Wallet”, has announced that its in-house developed token, The Transfer Token, will migrate to a DeFi token protocol.

The Transfer Token (hereinafter referred to as TTT) is a token issued by Atom Solutions. The most exceptional feature is that by holding and lending TTT on our platform “Eternal Wallet”, developed alongside TTT, users are eligible for gaining dividends distribution.

Regarding the dividend distribution within the wallet, during an open beta test conducted from January through February, Atom Solutions recorded the below values:

・In the case of holding TTT within Eternal Wallet: 98% yearly

・In the case of lending out TTT into The Pool within Eternal Wallet: 218% yearly

The migration of TTT to a DeFi token protocol was largely born out of feedback gathered from the beta test.

This is essential in strengthening security, and preventing misconduct and data manipulation by specific operators and/or third-party attackers. By migrating the core of Eternal Wallet, the element that covers “The world’s highest received amount when remitting overseas”, to blockchain, Atom Solutions aims to provide a system with high transparency.

DeFi (Decentralized Finance) refers to the various financial services that can be provided upon the blockchain through utilizing smart contracts.

The financial services offered by DeFi encompass various sectors such as loans, insurance, exchanges, hedge funds, derivatives, prediction markets, etc. Also, unlike a centralized system with an intermediary is unnecessary, it has the feature of being a swift yet secure method of making a transaction. This notable difference from traditional financial systems has made it a focal point of interest in recent years.

Moreover, with DeFi, due to being operated on the blockchain, it has the benefits of cutting costs, increased composability and accessibility, and high transparency.

Atom Solutions, from here on forward, by further increasing the presence of TTT within the DeFi ecosystem, aims to further expand on the convenience and profitability of the services’ users.

In addition, in conjunction with this, the company has also updated the Whitepaper regarding TTT. Click here for more information.

About Atom Solutions

Atom Solutions is a Japanese FinTech corporation with 10 years of experience and achievements since its conception. In addition to abundant expertise in financial and technology sectors, we have filed for and obtained several patents related to our lending and Pool functions and much more. Armed with these we aim to realize “The world’s highest received amount upon overseas remittance”.

In our sights is not only Japan, not only Asia, but all countries across the globe. In the near future we aim to expand the number of countries where our services can be used worldwide and intend to deliver the best possible service to our users.

Location: 5F Sei Bi Do Bldg, 2-31-16 Eitai Kouto-Ku, Tokyo

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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/the-transfer-tokens-ttt-migrating-to-a-defi-token-protocol/

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Blockchain

Kraken Daily Market Report for May 09 2021

Republished by Plato

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Overview


  • Total spot trading volume at $3.39 billion, 25% higher than the 30-day average of $2.71 billion.
  • Total futures notional at $921.3 million.
  • The top five traded coins were, respectively, Dogecoin (-11%), Bitcoin (-1.1%), Ethereum (+0.3%), Tether (-0.05%), and Cardano (+9,0%).
  • Great returns from Litecoin (+12%) and Cardano (+9.0%).

May 09, 2021 
 $3.39B traded across all markets today
 Crypto, EUR, USD, JPY, CAD, GBP, CHF, AUD 
XDG 
$0.5702 
↓11% 
$1.12B
XBT 
$58293. 
↓1.1% 
$808.0M
ETH 
$3927.0 
↑0.3% 
$687.9M
USDT 
$1.001 
↓0.05% 
$347.6M
ADA 
$1.7691 
↑9.0% 
$184.5M
XRP 
$1.5366 
↓1.8% 
$96.9M
LTC 
$388.21 
↑12% 
$76.6M
USDC 
$0.9998 
↓0.02% 
$69.8M
DOT 
$40.346 
↑1.0% 
$59.1M
ETC 
$118.97 
↓7.5% 
$58.9M
LINK 
$52.301 
↑7.3% 
$50.3M
BCH 
$1428.7 
↑2.0% 
$31.2M
FLOW 
$27.5 
↓4.0% 
$29.0M
EOS 
$10.534 
↑1.7% 
$26.5M
TRX 
$0.1430 
↓0.14% 
$21.1M
SC 
$0.0394 
↓2.8% 
$19.3M
XLM 
$0.6287 
↑2.3% 
$17.5M
XMR 
$484.44 
↑1.7% 
$12.5M
QTUM 
$27.248 
↑5.9% 
$10.6M
KSM 
$450.93 
↑3.6% 
$10.3M
DASH 
$406.54 
↓0.9% 
$7.72M
ATOM 
$28.783 
↓2.5% 
$7.55M
XTZ 
$7.1008 
↑1.6% 
$7.22M
FIL 
$146.26 
↓1.3% 
$7.05M
ALGO 
$1.5153 
↓0.4% 
$6.81M
UNI 
$39.518 
↓2.6% 
$6.41M
WAVES 
$31.746 
↓2.3% 
$6.33M
OMG 
$11.628 
↓2.1% 
$5.44M
DAI 
$1.0015 
↑0.04% 
$5.41M
NANO 
$9.4387 
↓2.9% 
$4.26M
AAVE 
$460.04 
↓1.2% 
$4.18M
STORJ 
$2.1611 
↓3.0% 
$3.96M
ZEC 
$305.02 
↓3.4% 
$3.84M
MANA 
$1.4924 
↑3.4% 
$3.82M
OCEAN 
$1.5112 
↑1.4% 
$3.79M
KAVA 
$6.153 
↓2.1% 
$3.22M
GRT 
$1.5394 
↓2.8% 
$2.64M
GNO 
$275.90 
↓6.3% 
$2.64M
LSK 
$8.2803 
↓2.1% 
$2.47M
ICX 
$2.6508 
↓0.7% 
$2.46M
BAT 
$1.4148 
↓1.0% 
$2.38M
COMP 
$771.12 
↓1.4% 
$1.9M
OXT 
$0.6504 
↓2.4% 
$1.8M
CRV 
$3.444 
↓3.7% 
$1.41M
SNX 
$17.79 
↓3.6% 
$1.39M
KEEP 
$0.5876 
↓5.1% 
$1.31M
KNC 
$3.3837 
↓2.0% 
$1.28M
ANT 
$10.208 
↓0.4% 
$1.17M
BAL 
$66.46 
↓3.8% 
$1.12M
YFI 
$53466. 
↓1.5% 
$1.12M
REP 
$45.586 
↓2.9% 
$1.07M
EWT 
$14.222 
↑4.2% 
$1.01M
PAXG 
$1898.5 
↑1.4% 
$926K
MLN 
$105.15 
↓3.6% 
$512K
REPV2 
$45.438 
↓6.4% 
$199K
TBTC 
$60059. 
↓0.23% 
$40.0K



#####################. Trading Volume by Asset. ##########################################

Trading Volume by Asset


The figures below break down the trading volume of the largest, mid-size, and smallest assets. Cryptos are in purple, fiats are in blue. For each asset, the chart contains the daily trading volume in USD, and the percentage of the total trading volume. The percentages for fiats and cryptos are treated separately, so that they both add up to 100%.

Figure 1: Largest trading assets: trading volume (measured in USD) and its percentage of the total trading volume (May 09 2021)



Figure 2: Mid-size trading assets: (measured in USD) (May 09 2021)



Figure 3: Smallest trading assets: (measured in USD) (May 09 2021)



###########. Daily Returns. #################################################

Daily Returns %


Figure 7: Returns over USD and XBT. Relative volume and return size is indicated by the size of the font. (May 09 2021)



###########. Disclaimer #################################################

The values generated in this report are from public market data distributed from Kraken WebSockets api. The total volumes and returns are calculated over the reporting day using UTC time.

Coinsmart. Beste Bitcoin-Börse in Europa
Source: https://blog.kraken.com/post/9011/kraken-daily-market-report-for-may-09-2021/

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