While upsets happen all the time in the NCAA Tournament, there are usually only a handful of teams that can win the tournament. Here is a guide to Picking a 2023 NCAA Tournament Champion!
Parameters
These teams are efficient on both ends of the floor and are usually battle-tested as well. The last team to win it all and not be top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (according to kenpom.com) was UConn in 2014. That UConn team is the only team since 2002 not to meet those parameters and still win the championship.
Other teams could follow 2014 UConn’s steps and win it all, but they would be a statistical outlier.
Note: Teams can start outside of these parameters, but play so efficiently in the tournament that they finish there.
Teams Currently Fitting the Criteria (Pick With Little Risk)
Houston Cougars- Houston ranks first in Kenpom rankings. They are first in offense and 11th in defense making them a prime candidate to win it all. To make things better, the Final Four is in their home town of Houston. Marcus Sasser was injured in the AAC Tournament and the Cougars lost in the Final, but it doesn’t look like it is a serious injury for Sasser. The 31-3 Cougars were battle-tested out of conference and will be a popular pick in brackets this season.
Alabama Crimson Tide- The Crimson Tide rank 19th in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficency. Alabama won the regular season and SEC Tournament championship. Freshman Brandon Miller has electrified college basketball with his play, as he averages 19.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. There is hesitation with picking Alabama because they average the fourth most three point attempts per game, but they may have the star power to cover a bad shooting night.
UConn Huskies- Ranking sixth in offensive and 18th in defensive efficiency, the Huskies have had a great year under Dan Hurley. They are led by a good inside presence in Adama Sanogo and a guard, Jordan Hawkins, who each average over 16 points per game.
Texas Longhorns- Texas has had a tumultuous season off the court, but on the court, they rank 18th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. Rodney Terry has done a great job of keeping the group focused after Chris Beard was fired earlier in the year. Marcus Carr leads the team in points, assists and steals, but will have plenty of help between guards Sir’Jabari Rice and Tyrese Hunter to go along with forward Timmy Allen.
Teams Who Can Play Their Way Into the Criteria (Pick With Some Risk)
UCLA Bruins- They currently rank 25th in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency, but the Bruins suffered a massive blow that might make them even more of a risk to pick to win it all. Third-leading scorer and elite defender Jaylen Clark suffered a season-ending injury recently. The Bruins still made it to the Pac-12 Championship, but lost to Arizona. Both Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. have Final Four experience, but they’ll have to raise their level of play to cover for the loss of Wright.
Purdue Boilermakers- Purdue wasn’t very highly thought of before the season, but have played tremendously to win the Big Ten. They are seventh in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. While their defense will have to improve, they do have the most dominant big man in college basketball in Zach Edey. What could hinder them is that they have freshmen guards leading the way.
Kansas Jayhawks- The Jayhawks had the most quadrant 1 wins on the season. They are 29th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency. Last season, Kansas ranked just outsid the parameters then went on to win it all. They have championship experience in Jalen Wilson and a good freshman scorer in Gradey Dick. Bill Self will reportedly rejoin the team after spending the Big 12 Tournament in the hospital. It would not be a surprise to see Kansas repeat as a champion.
Creighton Blue Jays- Creighton was projected to be one of the best teams in the country this year, but had a rough start. They played their way to a no. 6 seed. The Blue Jays rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. They have five players averaging over 10 points per game, so it isn’t inconceivable that they can move their offensive efficiency up if they get hot. A six-seed has only won one tournament in history (1988 Kansas), but maybe Creighton can make something happen.
Teams With a Very Outside Shot of Playing into the Criteria (Pick With a Lot of Risk)
Arizona Wildcats- Arizona is coming off of a Pac-12 Championship while ranking fourth in offensive efficiency and 41st in defensive efficiency. Getting their defense to rank over 20 spots higher will be a tough task, but not impossible. Baylor ranked just outside the top 40 and played their way to a championship in 2021. The Wildcats have both size and shooting, which could make a tournament run possible.
St. Mary’s Gaels- The Gaels rank 40th in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency. It would be hard to see a WCC team win a championship with them not being named Gonzaga, but the Gaels have two players shooting over 40 percent from deep and could improve the offensive efficiency.
Marquette Golden Eagles- Shaka Smart has done a tremendous job in his first season at Marquette. They rank seventh in offensive efficiency, but 47th in defensive efficiency. It is hard to see them rise almost 30 spots on the defensive side of things.
Memphis Tigers- The Tigers are 26th offensively on KenPom and 35th defensively. Only one eight-seed has won the tournament (1985 Villanova), so it is best to stay away from the Tigers even if it is theoretically possible for them to rank top 20 in both categories.
Maryland Terrapins- Ranking in at 35th offensively and 33rd defensively, Maryland has played well this season. Like Memphis they are an eight-seed and are not a suggested pick to win it all, even if they can rank top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Texas A&M Aggies- The Aggies were likely expecting a better seed, but are the no. 7 in the Midwest Region. They are 30th in offensive efficiency and 37th in defensive efficiency, so it is hard to see them improving both their offense and defense enough to win it all. Only one no. 7 has won the tournament (UConn 2014)
Florida Atlantic Owls- After dominating their schedule, the Owls are 32nd in offensive efficiency and 36th in defensive efficiency. While they could fit the criteria, no no. 9 seed has won the tournament. Pick with a ton of risk here!
Favorites to Avoid (Teams are high seeds, but don’t fit the criteria)
Kansas State Wildcats- The Wildcats rank 52nd in offensive efficiency. Jerome Tang has done a great job, but winning it all probably isn’t in the cards.
Xavier Musketeers- Xavier is efficient offensively, but rank 70th defensively. On top of the defensive issues, the Musketeers also have limited depth.
Gonzaga Bulldogs- The Bulldogs have the best offense, but the defense ranks 76th. Gonzaga has had plenty of good teams, but it would be shocking to see this team be the one to cut down the nets.
Baylor Bears- Ranking 104th in defensive efficiency means another title likely isn’t in the cards for Baylor.
Tennessee Volunteers- While they are one of the best defensive teams in the country, their offense ranks 49th. They also lost Zakai Zeigler to a season-ending injury making things more daunting.
Indiana Hoosiers- Ranking at 27th in offensive efficiency and 43rd in defensive efficiency it would be hard for the Hoosiers to improve in both categories enough to fit the criteria.
Virginia Cavaliers- As is the norm for the Cavaliers, the Cavaliers have a good enough defense, but the offense ranks 74th in the country. The task may be too tall for Virginia to win it all this season.
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